Active New Top (30 days) Compact Card Prepper demographics updated with 2020 FEMA survey data: over 20M people in the US alone! Dr. Chris Ellis - November 19, 2022 Editor’s note: Colonel Chris Ellis, PhD, directs a disaster cell for the US military at India-Pacific Command. In part via his fellowship as a Goodpaster Scholar at Cornell University, he’s spent years analyzing data about the preparedness community. The last time we analyzed FEMA survey data, it caused a bit of a splash, becoming #1 on google for “prepper demographics” and leading to a wave of mainstream press coverage about how this community has grown and moved into the mainstream. (Such as today’s 60 Minutes episode about the market growth!) But that was using 2018 pre-Covid data (which is released years later), and we’ve since been anxious to get hands on the data FEMA collected after the pandemic changed everything. Everyone’s been expecting that Covid — and everything else that’s made ’20-22 so much fun — did nothing but continue to pour fuel on the fire of this growing community. I’ve finished crunching the numbers using FEMA phone surveys collected in the first half of 2020, comparing it with annual data from the National Household Survey (NHS) going back through 2017. So this does capture the Covid effect, but perhaps may have been too soon to really reflect the long-term changes, as people were still caught in the chaos the first months of 2020, just trying to figure out how to get toilet paper or not be a cat on their courtroom Zoom. The future batch of data that covers ‘20-21 should be more telling. Key takeaways: The number of people who can handle >31 days of self-reliance grew 50% over the 2017-20 period. The 20 million US preppers mark has solidly been crossed. If you use the broader definition of a prepper as someone who can handle at least two weeks of disruption, the number gets even higher. That means around 7% of all US households were actively working on self-reliance in ’19-20, solidly increasing from 2% to 3% then 5% in recent years. 10% is only a matter of time. While the “basic preppers” segment was consistently growing year over year before Covid, the “advanced preppers” segment had been flat or even shrank a little — but that trend reversed in 2020, showing that many people saw the need to go beyond the basics in response to world events. Nothing major changed around geography: the same states that prep a lot (eg. Montana) and those that don’t (eg. Washington D.C.) stayed in their relative rankings. Islanders, such as people in Hawaii and Puerto Rico, continue to prep at rates 50% higher than mainlanders. Rural households are still more likely than urbanites to prep, but we continue to see strong growth among city dwellers. Asians disproportionately embraced prepping in ’20, which perhaps makes sense given what they may have been hearing from friends and family back in Asia during early Covid combined with some of the anti-Asian racism that grew in the US in ’20. Perhaps most surprising: the trend in recent years was that preppers were getting younger. But that trend reversed in 2020, with the average age actually increasing a little to 52.6. The number of younger preppers still grew — 25-34 year olds are still the largest segment on The Prepared — but there was even more growth among the older crowd during this period. There’s some weird results in this data, though, which show there’s still a disconnect between reality and how a typical household thinks about risk. But we’ve started getting a peek at the ’21 data, where FEMA changed some of the survey questions to be clearer, and I think it will result in better data going forward. While the term “prepper” is ill-defined quantitatively, in my research I use a simple heuristic from the NHS: how long can you survive at home without publicly provided water, power, or transportation? I quantify anyone with 31 days or more of self-reported preparedness as a Resilient Citizen. Those with 30 days or less are Regulars. Highly Resilient Citizens (HRCs) have 90 days or more and Ultra-High Resilient Citizens (UHRCs) are at 97 or more days (the maximum allowed response in FEMA’s survey). Preparedness trends Americans collectively have increased their levels of disaster preparedness from 2017 to 2020. For Regulars, the effect is small – an average of seven days in 2017 to just over eight days in 2020 – but still measurable. For this group, each year saw a slight increase. When including Resilient Citizens and averaging all Americans, the mean jumped from just under 10 days of resilience in 2017 to 12.4 days in 2020. The overall number of Resilient Citizens in America has also increased every year. In 2017, approximately four out of every 100 people was a Resilient Citizen. In 2020 it had increased 50% to nearly six per 100. In sheer numbers this means 14.9 million Americans had 31 days or more of at-home preparedness in 2020. Ultra-Highly Resilient Citizens (97 days or more of preparedness) jumped from four million people in 2017 to 6.7 million in 2020. There is still a heavy stereotype against “preppers,” but as more people prepare from across the political spectrum – and in various ways – the stigma appears to be slowly eroding. Geography Where do these households reside? I analyzed the data in two different ways. First was by US state or territory. Generally speaking, lower population, rural states have the highest rates of preparedness. Montana, Idaho, Alaska, New Hampshire, Maine, Utah, Wyoming, West Virginia, Delaware, and Hawaii make up the top ten, in descending order (i.e. Montana had the highest average). The lowest average states were, with the exception of Texas and Illinois, all east coast states or the District of Columbia (Washington, DC was the lowest, followed by Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Rhode Island, New York, Massachusetts, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina). A cursory look at yearly changes, by state, yielded no discernable pattern. California and Florida saw annual increases in Resilient Citizens all four years, but Texas and New York saw random fluctuation. Another pattern that held from my previous research was that of higher aggregate rates of preparedness in US islands (Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands). The four-year average of residents of island locales indicates preparedness rates ~50% higher than those on the mainland (15.7 days versus 10.8 days respectively). I maintain my original conjecture that primary drivers of this disparate finding are a “fear of state failure” coupled with an inability to easily flee larger disasters for island residents. A second way to geographically analyze the data is by an urban-rural delineation. The US Department of Agriculture bins zip codes into one of ten population density categories (1 = an urban area with 50,000 people or more, 10 = rural at less than 2,500 people). There is a positive correlation between ruralness and higher levels of preparedness across all Americans. 80% of Regulars surveyed lived in an urban area. However, a sizable two-thirds of all self-identified Resilient Citizens and 56% of UHRCs lived in an urban area as well. Race In regard to race, the four-year aggregates of all Americans yields that the category “Alaskan or Native American” had the highest average at 14 days of preparedness. After this was Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders, then Whites, Hispanics, Blacks/African Americans, and Asians, in that order. Whites and Blacks saw yearly increases while the other races had fluctuations. Asians were very stable from 2017-2019 but saw a major jump in 2020. Several possibilities explain this latter finding: increased discrimination, higher cultural or social transmission of preparedness, news consumption patterns, or affinity to stories emanating from China and Asia writ large at the beginning of COVID. The story among Resilient Citizens is slightly different. For four-year aggregates, Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders topped the list at 92 days, followed by Alaskans/Native Americans (79 days), then Hispanics (77), Whites (76), Blacks (71), and Asians (65). A large word of caution is in order here though, with all races other than Whites, the number of minority resilient citizens is quite low in any given year. There are not enough respondents in these categories for me to confidently depict any racial patterns among Resilient Citizens on a yearly basis. Relatedly, when conducting multi-variate analysis and controlling for things such as income, education, and an urban vs. rural home location, the variable of race was a poor indicator of being a Resilient Citizen or not. The maximum observed impact across numerous calculations was only 2%. Age Resilient Citizens are slightly older (52.6 years old) overall than Regulars (51.7), but this difference is less than a year. Interestingly though, the steady growth in Resilient Citizens is NOT among the young. The 35 and under crowd make up a much smaller percentage of Resilient Citizens in 2020 (14.4%) than they did in 2017 (20.6%). Comparatively, growth in those aged 36-49 is nearly 50% and for those 50+ it is 62% from 2017 to 2020. Isolating those 60 and over saw a near doubling; the increase was 92%! Some of this differentiation between young and old could be due to income levels and overall net worth. Other variables In all of the data analyzed, the most shocking finding to me was the reported rates of experiencing a disaster. FEMA asked, “Have you or your family ever experienced the impacts of a disaster?” Among all respondents, the 2020 data – in the midst of COVID – was slightly down as compared to 2017. Among all Resilient Citizens, it was down nine full percentage points. The 2020 survey was conducted in the summer of 2020, at the height of the first lockdown and several months before any vaccines were developed and available. A higher percentage of women reported being Resilient Citizens in 2020 than in 2017, but the numbers were too small for any statistical significance. Another interesting jump was in the number of Resilient Citizens with a disability. There was a 50% increase from 2017 to 2020. Of note, the FEMA data indicated, at best, only a 3% rise in disabilities in the overall population during the same timeframe. Among preparedness circles is the concept of “bugging out”. That is, quickly leaving your home at – or just prior to – disaster onset with an already assembled bag of emergency supplies. Among Regulars, even though they reported higher rates of at home preparedness, their reported ready-to-go rates saw no discernable patterns among the four years studied. By contrast, Resilient Citizens reported a 35% jump in bug-out readiness in 2019 and maintained that new high in 2020. Homeowner’s insurance levels increased in both groups slightly, however there were just three years of data, so this could be observed randomness. Money saved for an emergency increased among Regulars but decreased among Resilient Citizens. My hunch is that Resilient Citizens converted cash into preps. What didn’t change? Education levels between Regulars and Resilient Citizens continues to be nearly equal across all four years. Income levels were relatively stable with Resilient Citizens on average earning a few thousand dollars more per year than Regulars. Resilient Citizens still report higher levels of confidence in their ability to take the steps necessary to prepare for a disaster than Regulars. Resilient Citizens also maintain they are far more likely to have had a disaster plan for at least a year. Looking forward to 2021 data FEMA has just released the 2021 National Household Survey raw data. The survey instrument has undergone some substantial changes. First of all, it’s a larger query of America. 2021’s sample size is around 7,200 people versus the roughly 5,000 per year in each of the 2017-2020 datasets. Secondly, some of the key questions have been modified. For example, people are no longer asked their monthly income, but rather their annual income. I personally think this will yield clearer results. Another question modification that will have significant impact on comparing 2021 to previous years is my key variable of days of total survival at home. 2021’s new survey instrument no longer asks about how long one could last at home without power, water, or transportation. It now breaks these down into separate questions. For example: “How long could you live in your home without power?” And, the answers are no longer discrete numbers, but rather chronological heuristics such as “More than one week” or “More than three months.” If you assume that those who answered at more than one month and more than three months, combined, for both the power question and the running water question are analogous to Resilient Citizens, then the percentage of Americans in 2021 at this higher level is now 8.3%, or roughly 21.5 million Americans. Analysis is ongoing and I hope to release findings in 2023. Read More 21 9 MetaNews Preview of whole new TP website launching soon John AdamaStaff - November 11, 2022 Timing update: The person building the website got sick with the ‘tripledemic,’ so we’re delayed at least into January. Crossposting this from the blog since some people only visit one or the other (which we’re fixing in the new site, haha!) This first version is more about cleaning up the existing site/experiments and laying a solid foundation for faster future improvements. For example, the current site tech prevented us from improving the way threaded convos happen here in the forum / how you could track what was the newest comment. The new foundation will let us do that. More details and sneak peeks here. Example: Read More 12 4 MetaNews Giveaway: New survival guide book from Alone’s S9 Juan Pablo Quinonez John AdamaStaff - October 23, 2022 Edit: All copies are spoken for To spread the news about the books release, current Alone season contestant JP is sending out 3 free copies to the TP community, with the expectation of a fair review shared here later! (Your help is how we keep the best books list updated too!) The book is THRIVE: Long-Term Wilderness Survival Guide. (It’s 120,000 words, so you’re not expected to read the whole thing. Just a fair shake.) Seems like more of a reference guide “covering modern survival skills with bushcraft techniques, step-by-step instructions, and over 400 illustrations.” First come first served. Reply here (we’ll email the address on your account) or contact us directly via email: hello@thissite Read More 10 15 GearNews Hikers caught in a wildfire Kira - September 19, 2022 Hi all, Came across this article about how two hikers that got caught in a wildfire survived (no pay wall) and thought some of y’all might be interested: https://www.khq.com/news/hikers-stranded-atop-mountain-by-bolt-creek-fire/article_d6cc054e-322e-11ed-9165-231473ca123d.html They assumed the smoke was coming from the other side of the mountains. They weren’t able to be evacuated by first responders, came close to the fire several times, ran out of water, and nearly fell of a cliff, but were ultimately able to find their car and evacuate. I’m curious what, if any, different choices or preparations you might have made? I’d have avoided going outside in smoke full stop (it’s thick enough to coat my yard in ash, and I’m several towns over!) and would have checked the fire map (again, thick smoke). Read More 11 21 News Study: scientists should research possibility of human extinction from climate change Ant0kneeguy - September 12, 2022 A study was published on August 1st (Edit: 2022) in a collaboration from researchers from various countries and universities, including the esteemed Oxford and Cambridge. It doesn’t assess the likelihood of human extinction, but instead looks at how much research has been done on this crucial topic. And a popular news broadcaster in the UK even took up the story.The authors conclude that science is sorely lacking. To quote the paper directly: “The closest attempts to directly study or comprehensively address how climate change could lead to human extinction or global catastrophe have come through popular science books”. Not scientific, peer-reviewed research. Pop-sci books. As far as I can tell, the closest current science actually gets is examining individual risks (e.g: how food production will be affected by rising temperatures) rather than taking them together, let alone looking at how risks might cascade into or exacerbate each other.But I suppose what surprised me the most, and why I’m writing about this, is this. Exisitential risk is actually making the news in a highly-regarded, mainstream news outlet, and is becoming the subject of serious research from respected academic institutions. The fact that Cambridge University actually has a Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at all I think shows the beginnings of a step change in attitudes. Naturally, we have a way to go. I laughed out loud at how the news article described the study: “The researchers said that seriously studying the consequences of worst-case scenarios was vital, even though it might scare people.” It would seem that most are (understandably) still of the attitude ‘we shouldn’t talk about scary things because it paralyses people’, but things may be beginning to change. What do you all think about this? The study is here, and the news article talking about it is here. Read More 11 13 News Free FEMA webinar with TP and myself John AdamaStaff - August 8, 2022 Excited to share that FEMA has partnered with The Prepared to improve their public content and training! (How many other “prepper websites” can say that?!) Our first webinar is in a week, Wednesday July 13th from 1-2:30ish US Eastern. A recording will be available after, which I’ll share here. Update: Link to recording. Registration: https://fema.connectsolutions.com/theprepared/event/registration.html Their announcement: I’ll teach/soapbox for 45 mins or so, then up to 45 mins of Q&A. We’ll cover the modern preparedness framework TP’s credited with popularizing, show specific gear examples, talk about skills and next steps, and so on. Basically a crash course for both personal prepping and how to teach others / be a community leader. If you’re already familiar with TP’s teachings, there won’t be anything new (I’m essentially teaching what’s already on our website), but you’re of course welcome to join anyway — there will be a few hundred leaders from various CERT organizations, leaders of big FEMA chapters like New York City, and so on. Read More 21 14 MetaNews Prepping in old German barracks, an article about trying to stay positive about a collapse of the food supply Juna - August 8, 2022 Yesterday I read this interesting article by The Guardian about a prepper who bought an old German barrack Change is coming’: Meet the Englishman prepping for climate apocalypse in an old German barracks Read More 4 1 News New affordable online pharmacy saves people thousands on life saving medicine rebecca - July 2, 2022 You may have seen Mark Cuban on Shark Tank as the famous billionaire investor/businessman. He recently opened up an online pharmacy that is trending all over the news right now with the amazing cost savings that it is offering to people. Instead of selling drugs for ridiculous amounts, they only mark it up 15% (still a healthy profit for them). A traditional pharmacy may charge you or your insurance company $9657, but at this place it is only $39. Isn’t that insane how much of a savings that is for you? Important medications are now accessible to people who may have just gone without, rationed, or went bankrupt trying to stay alive. If you need a lifesaving prescription medication, check out costplusdrugs.com and see if you can get it cheaper on there. They don’t take insurance cards to pay for the drugs, but the savings are still so incredibly good that you might end up paying less for the same medication then you were with your co-pay or deductible. It is easier to store up some extra $40 medication than it is a $9500 one. Hopefully this allows people to not only have what they need, but save some up for a rainy day if there are supply chain issues, job loss, etc. Read More 10 4 News How has rising gas prices influenced you? Conrad B - June 12, 2022 I really thought that we would see a small spike in gas prices with the conflict in Ukraine and then level out, but it doesn’t seem to stop. Chart from Gasbuddy.com and is the national average. How has the rising gas prices affected everyone? Are you driving less? Have you bought a more fuel efficient vehicle? Did you switch jobs to commute less? I’ve been driving much less often and combine all my errands into one trip so that I don’t have to go out. It changes the way I prepare because I need to store more items on hand and sometimes just go without something like bread for a couple days until I build up enough reasons to go out again. I don’t visit family or go out for entertainment as much as I used to either. It feels like I am back under quarantine and is starting to affect my mental health like during covid. I also rotate through my stored gas cans every 6 months so I don’t have to buy fuel stabilizer, but maybe it would be cheaper to stabilize the fuel because 6 months from now it might be much higher. Stupid me is going to laugh and be wish for $4.90 gas in 2 months time when it’s then around $6.25 or something. Read More 10 14 News Be aware of infectious disease outbreaks near you with this free map tracker CamilleContributor - June 11, 2022 Wanted to link a resource I was recently introduced to that lets you track health including: animal diseases, environmental disasters, hospital acquired infections, vectorborne diseases, STDs, respiratory infections etc across the world. You can narrow it down to your local area and see what is in your region that you can think about preparing for. https://www.healthmap.org/en/ Read More 16 2 News Cost-of-living crisis changes Brits’ shopping habits: Hard-pressed shoppers are bulk buying Bill Masen - June 2, 2022 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10712489/British-shoppers-resorting-bulk-buying-amid-cost-living-crisis.html Ala Prepping style:) British shoppers are bulk-buying groceries to save money amid the ongoing cost of living crisis, a new report has suggested. The Barclaycard consumer survey found that 35 per cent of card users were stocking up on everyday items such as tea and coffee, tinned tuna and hygiene products such as shampoo and hand soap. Buying in bulk can equal less trips to the supermarket – meaning less money spent on increasingly expensive fuel – while there are often savings to be had in buying products at wholesale. According to the report, gathered using data from March, 13 per cent of shoppers are stocking up on canned tomatoes, baked beans, tuna, pasta, flour, rice and grains. Meanwhile, 11 per cent are bulk-buying household supplies such as toilet roll, while 10 per cent are stocking up on laundry detergent and shampoo. At least 10 per cent are also getting extra supplies of tea and coffee. Shoppers also admitted to bulk buying over-the-counter painkillers (8 per cent), pet food (7 per cent), fizzy drinks (6 per cent), alcohol (5 per cent), Easter eggs and chocolate (5 per cent) and baby supplies (3 per cent). José Carvalho, Head of Consumer Products at Barclaycard, said: ‘Many sectors saw strong growth in March compared to the same period in 2019, as sunnier weather encouraged Brits to socialise at pubs and bars, book staycations and update their wardrobes for spring and summer. ‘However, rising fuel prices and household bills are clearly starting to influence consumer behaviour, with many Brits changing their travel and shopping habits to save money. While this may dampen growth in the months ahead, we shouldn’t overlook the expected heatwave later in April, and the fast-approaching Easter holidays, both of which are likely to boost non-essential spending.’ The data from Barclaycard, which sees nearly half of the nation’s credit and debit card transactions, revealed that spending on essential items grew 18.1 per cent in March, the highest uplift since September 2021. However this was largely driven by spend on fuel, which soared 26.1 per cent as prices at the pump continued to climb. Card spending in general grew 17.7 per cent last month compared to the same period in 2019, as Brits took advantage of the sunnier weather and lifting of all remaining Covid restrictions to visit pubs, dine out, and update their wardrobes in preparation for the months ahead. However, the cost of living is causing increasing concern for most UK adults, with travel plans and shopping preferences changing in response to rising fuel and food prices. Some two fifths of drivers (41 per cent) said they are changing the way they travel. Of these, over half (54 per cent) are walking more often, almost two-fifths (38 per cent) are cutting back on long car journeys, and 22 per cent are opting to cycle instead. Supermarkets saw a 16.9 per cent jump in card spendings – higher than the growth recorded in both January (15.5 per cent) and February (16.0 per cent) this year – but much of this was likely due to inflation and rising food prices. Spending on essentials was also boosted by a demand for convenience and the popularity of local shopping, with food and drink specialist stores (butchers, bakeries and online meal-kit providers) up by 76.9 per cent compared with three years ago. Barclaycard made comparisons with three years ago because consumer spending was so heavily affected by the lockdowns in March 2020 and March 2021. Read More 10 2 News Another article on UK preppers UKSeb - June 1, 2022 In the “prepping goes mainstream” series… Everyone should prep’: the Britons stocking up for hard times Read More 10 4 News Computer Fraud and Abuse Act News Karl Winterling - May 25, 2022 I migrated this from the news blog discussion because I thought it was a little tangential. I thought the following news could potentially be of interest to preppers, especially if you take OpSec very seriously and don’t always like saying who you are. The Department of Justice made revisions to its Computer Fraud and Abuse Act policy (see also here, though I want to clarify that I don’t consider myself a libertarian and I don’t necessarily agree with everything on the Reason Magazine Web site): The DOJ will not prosecute “good faith security research” or “White Hat hacking.” In most circumstances, companies won’t be able to arbitrarily make it a felony to violate terms of service. In severe cases (maybe “stalking-like” behavior that doesn’t rise to the level of being illegal, like a guy writes about a woman without directly harassing her) the violator must discontinue the behavior after receiving and reading a cease and desist letter. Of course, social media companies will know who you are if we end up with a left-wing dictatorship, right-wing dictatorship, or some other form of authoritarian government. Prep accordingly. Read More 8 2 News What shortages/price hikes are you all anticipating? CamilleContributor - April 26, 2022 I feel like I’ve seen a lot of news about higher fuel prices and an expectation that wheat will be in short supply and higher in price, but I was reading this article and found that Russia is one of the leading exporters of fertilizer. Fertilizer shortages could ultimately really impact agricultural yields globally. What shortages/price hikes are you all anticipating and prepping for? Read More 19 23 NewsScenarios Sunflower oil: UK bottler has a few weeks’ supply left Bill Masen - April 12, 2022 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60941091 The biggest cooking oil bottler for UK shops has said it only has a few weeks’ supply of sunflower oil left.Ukraine and Russia produce most of the world’s sunflower oil and the war is disrupting exports, said Edible Oils.The company, which packages oil for 75% of the UK retail market, is ramping up supplies of other oils for shoppers.Meanwhile, manufacturers of foods that contain sunflower oil, like crisps, oven chips and cereal bars, are reworking their recipes.The Food Standards Agency has advised people with allergies to look out for extra information from shops and food makers.Kim Matthews, commercial director at Edible Oils said 80% of the global supply of sunflower oil comes out of Russia and Ukraine.”So obviously, with everything going on out there, we physically can’t get sunflower to be coming out of the country,” he said. If you buy any cooking oil on the supermarket shelves, chances are it has come from the Edible Oils plant in Erith, on the outskirts of south-east London. It bottles oil for brands and retailers own label products.”From a UK consumer perspective, sunflower oil is the biggest oil. It’s used more than anything else,” said Mr Matthews.”It’s a fast moving situation. We’re still trying to see if we can get some more but it’s looking very tight.”Edible Oils Ltd has upped production to 24/7 to try to make sure it has plenty of rapeseed and other oils to put on the shelves when the sunflower oil goes.”Sunflower is great because you can cook at high temperatures. Rapeseed is very similar. You can do exactly the same with it,” he said.But it was far from clear when sunflower oil supplies will be back to normal, he said.”At the moment, Ukrainian farmers should be sowing the seeds now for the harvest in October and November.”Clearly that’s not going to happen… we’re probably going to miss the season so we could be impacted for 12-18 months.” Read More 7 12 News The Guardian profiles international go-bags atlanticrando - April 6, 2022 “Your life is under threat. You might have to run any second. What do you take?” – The Guardian I thought folks here might find this to be of interest. The piece highlights the diverse and rational needs for personal preparedness that are not at all the apocalyptic or paranoid variety. While only a few of these kits would be The Prepared-approved for their thoroughness, most of the bags reflect some preparedness staples: important documents, communications, medicine, hygiene, and family care. I think it shows some interesting perspectives and that a go-bag is not a one-size-all solution: people do have distinctly different needs, priorities, and scenarios depending on their circumstances and personal values. A complete 30-50lb kit is not going to be achievable or useful in a lot of circumstances, especially for those living in high density urban environments for whom mobility is most important. Read More 8 8 News Surging energy prices leave British glasshouses empty JennyWren - April 1, 2022 This may sound trivial on the face of it, however, it shows how difficult life could get very soon. The crisis in the Ukraine has the potential to affect much larger swathes in life. With energy price rises affecting us directly through heating and fuel costs, it’s also coming indirectly through food and transport. I’ve cherry picked a few points from the article. High Energy Costs Means Crops Not Planted. ROYDON, England, March 31 (Reuters) – In a small corner of south-east England, vast glasshouses stand empty, the soaring cost of energy preventing their owner from using heat to grow cucumbers for the British market. Elsewhere in the country growers have also failed to plant peppers, aubergines and tomatoes after a surge in natural gas prices late last year was exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, making the crops economically unviable. The hit to UK farms, which need gas to counter the country’s inclement weather, is one of the myriad ways the energy crisis and invasion have hit food supplies around the world, with global grain production and edible oils also under threat.” Montalbano, whose grandfather emigrated from Sicily in 1968 and started a nursery to provide local stores with fresh cucumbers, decided not to plant the first of the year’s three cycles in January. SOARING COSTS Last year he paid 40-50 pence a therm for natural gas. Last week it was 2.25 pounds a therm, having briefly hit a record 8 pounds in the wake of Russia’s invasion. Fertiliser prices have tripled versus last year, while the cost of carbon dioxide – used both to aid growing and in packaging – and hard-to-attain labour have also shot up. “We are now in an unprecedented situation where the cost increases have far outstripped a grower’s ability to do anything about them,” said Jack Ward, head of British Growers. It means a massive contraction for the industry, threatening Britain’s future food security, and further price rises for UK consumers already facing a bigger inflation hit than other countries in Europe following Brexit. UK inflation hit a 30-year high of 6.2% in February and is forecast to approach 9% in late 2022, contributing to the biggest fall in living standards since at least the 1950s. Bill mentioned in another thread that there could well be a petrol/diesel shortage further down the line as fuel is diverted to the expeditionary forces lining up at the Russian borders. I’m not feeling very optimistic at the moment. 🙁 Read More 7 7 News Finland and national preparedness (Financial Times) atlanticrando - March 28, 2022 In light of the Ukrainian invasion, FT has posted a story describing Finland’s national preparedness strategy/culture that I thought some here might find interesting. “But what Finland calls its strategy of ‘comprehensive security’ offers an example of how countries can create rigorous, society-wide systems to protect themselves ahead of time — planning not just for a potential invasion, but also for natural disasters or cyber attacks or a pandemic. This is not only about military readiness. It also extends to what Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a security expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, describes as the ‘boring, unsexy work’ of ensuring that laws and rules work in times of crisis.” I think it’s well known that some European states, like Finland and Switzerland, have very deeply engrained military or civil defense infrastructure, but there’s some thoughts here about working with the private sector, etc. that might be of interest. While it’s not a perfect system, there are some things here that other countries should consider, such as dual use infrastructure in case of emergency, etc. From a North American perspective, it would be prudent if Canada and the US investigated some of these measures, given that extreme weather, wildfire risk, etc., etc. is only going to increase. Read More 8 1 News One woman’s 18-point survival checklist for fleeing Ukraine as Russia invades : NPR wildfireexpert - March 21, 2022 Found this on NPR two days ago. Thought it was fascinating and wanted to share with y’all since there are several threads about Ukraine on the forum. One woman’s survival checklist fleeing Ukraine Read More 15 1 NewsScenarios European energy prices going through the roof Bill Masen - March 19, 2022 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10585147/Oil-price-surges-125-barrel-highest-level-2008.html Gas price rockets leaving billpayers facing £5,000 price capThe price of gas has gone through the roof to record levels today as the West prepares to boycott Russia’s fossil fuels, which raises $1billion-a-day for Vladimir Putin’s war chest. With global markets in turmoil, UK wholesale gas hit 800 pence per therm today – up from 39p a year ago – amid claims that the monthly price cap planned for October 1 could have to be raised to £5,000-a-year. To clarify before the Covid Pandemic and the Ukranian conflict the average Brit was paying £1250 ($1645) a year of electricity and gas. A month or so ago that rose to over £1900 ($ 2500) a year, and is definately going to hit £3000 ($ 3900) a year at the end of October 22. The way these issues are affecting energy prices it is now forecast to rise to between £4000 and £5000 ( $ 5260 – $ 6500) a year up from £1250. Millions are going to have a choice soon, HEAT or EAT but not both. I cannot possibly emphasize enough that if you can go OFF GRID on heat and Light, even partially (like getting a wood stove) you REALLY should. Read More 7 16 News Supply line news – Impacts of pandemic, war, inflation, and whatever comes next Pops - March 18, 2022 A thread for news about possible and observed supply impacts of pandemic, war, inflation, and whatever comes next. I’m US-based so please chime in with reports from other regions. Grain. Although the US doesn’t import much grain, we do bring in about 100 million tons a year, and we are big exporters. That means we are exposed to the world grain price. RU and Ukraine (UA) export about 12% of global calories traded. About 30% of wheat, 20% of corn and 80% of sunflower oil. UA.gov voted to ban exports and RU sanctions will have a big effect. Chips. (not potato) In addition to the existing supply bottlenecks and huge demand for microchips, it turns out Ukraine produces 50% of the neon in the world and has shut down both factories. So what? Neon is vital to the lasers that make microchip production possible. I have a PV charger on backorder—ostensibly due to the already existing chip shortages. Fertilizer. In addition to food price increase, RU is a huge exporter of fertiliser and banned export of N back in February and banned other exports thursday. Prices of N increased 22% and K went up 34% on friday alone. Not to put too fine a point on this, but fertilizer is the thing the Green Revolution was made of and what reset the timer on Ehrlich’s Population Bomb. So in addition to basic staples like grains, those of us who can grow some food should think about our fertiliser needs for the near term… and pesticides as well. Lumber. Really building materials in general. Lumber price is nearly as high as it was at the height of the shutdowns. But in my experience going to the big box every week, the racks of about everything are better supplied now. If you can possibly put off a lumber purchase I think you will be able to save some money. But that’s just a guess and as I’m remodeling an old house, I can’t really postpone, so there is that. Nickel, Copper, etc. Maybe getting into the weeds here but copper set an all-time high price this month and nickel was up 30%. China uses around half the supply and is driving consumption—because they make electronics for the rest of the world. I personally feel that the reason putin is going into UA now is that they past their peak in oil production on 2019, that is according to the RU oil ministry last year. So he’s gotta get to putting the USSR back together quick while he can. Having said all that, high oil price is going to drive up the price of lots of metals because they are needed for BEVs and renewable energy. Energy Skeptic talks about these things a lot, she has an article up now talking about the huge amount of raw materials needed to transition away from fossils. We live in a complicated and interconnected world where everything comes from somewhere else. Stuff is unfolding surprisingly fast at the moment, normality bias makes my cognition slow to respond. Most of the time there is enough slack, at least in my rich world, just in time supply line, that critical shortages don’t appear. But to me prepping is primarily about keeping ahead of whatever supply glitches and shortages. What do you see coming down the pike? Read More 10 10 News Interesting article from 2020 about US Homesteaders Bill Masen - March 17, 2022 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-7933655/Homesteaders-catastrophists-run-hills-flee-U-S-uncertainty.html Homesteaders, catastrophists run for the hills to flee U.S. uncertaintyBy Reuters Published: 10:01, 27 January 2020 By Carey. L. Biron WASHINGTON, Jan 27 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – Cheap housing, deep unease and intense resilience – all forces that are driving a clutch of Americans to swap city life for a fresh start off grid and far from civilisation. Some are survivalists, among them high fliers who fear a looming, urban catastrophe and the mayhem that might follow. Others want a greener, gentler life untainted by the malign forces of capitalism and uncertainty of mainstream politics. Whichever camp, realtors say the new dropouts are not “crackpots” and often include affluent professionals whose run for the hills has boosted rural land values and started to change their property market. “I’ve had hedge-fund managers and billionaires that have made purchases, and they all have concerns about the direction of the economy and social stability,” said John E. Haynes, president of Retreat Realty in North Carolina. “We’re on that upward trend,” he said. “Inventory of that land on the market is tighter.” Haynes has worked in real estate for decades. About four years ago, he rebranded his company to pitch property to a new and growing breed of buyer – those motivated by “concerns about social stability”. He had a record year in 2019, and was busy in the run-up to the 2016 election, when Donald Trump came to power. “I’m sensing that again,” he said. “People get uncertain, and they start making decisions on the political environment and what they anticipate. “So I think 2020 will be a good year for my business.” TIME TO RUN Bruce – who values his privacy so would not let his full name be used – is buying 20 acres in remote North Carolina, where trees will become fuel and water springs from the land. He has lived most of his life in cities, New York included. But now the plan is to escape the urban jungle – a place of traffic, noise, poverty, crime and much else Bruce dislikes. “It reached the point where we were tired of being on the defensive,” Bruce, in his mid-50s, said of city life and the hazardous technical setup on which it relies. “Amazon can deliver groceries in two hours, but will the grocery store have food three days after a large disaster?” he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation, noting the cataclysmic potential of a major disruption in electrical generation. “Our hope is nothing like this happens,” he said. “But should it, we’ll be better prepared to survive in a rural setting, where more food is grown locally, where we have land on which to raise food or livestock, or hunt.” ESCAPE TYRANNY Often called survivalists or “preppers”, many escapees twin an expectation of impending doom – or outright social collapse – with a deep disbelief in the government’s ability to cope. Buying land – or “bugout” property, derived from military slang for a retreat – is a priority, with real estate networks compiling national lists of “prepper lands”. Most survivalist land purchases are in the mountains of the U.S. northwest, primarily Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. In 2011, a blogger and former U.S. Army intelligence officer named James Wesley, Rawles – he includes the comma in his name – wrote a widely circulated post urging “freedom-loving Christians” to move to the region as a safe haven. He dubbed the area the American Redoubt and urged followers to “buy land that will maximise your self-sufficiency.” It is unclear how many heeded his call, but the Economist magazine estimated they numbered in the “thousands of families”. Idaho in particular recorded a big influx. The state had one of the top U.S. growth rates in 2015-16, driven in part by escapees from California and neighbouring Washington state, according to Boise State assistant professor Jeffrey Lyons. Disaffected Californians make up a substantial number of clients for Black Rifle Real Estate, which says online that it helps people “Flee the City to the freedom and safety of Rural America and the famed American Redoubt.” Broker Todd Savage said his business is at an all-time high, driven by frustration with how many U.S. cities are governed. “Most of our clients are now looking to sell their postage-stamp size properties … and make what we call a ‘Strategic Relocation’ to a free state,” Savage said in an email. Driven by new demand, the company is expanding outside of the so-called Redoubt – to Arizona, which Savage said enjoys lower taxes and far looser gun controls than liberal California. “Arizona is the new Idaho for many seeking relief from the tyranny in California,” he said. EMBRACE LAND Conservatives are not alone in the new land rush. Haynes said his clients in North Carolina are evenly split between survivalists and “homesteaders” – young, liberal, less affluent families seeking peace, quiet and a sustainable life. “When I started out in 1973, the big thing then was the ‘back to the land’ movement,” said Neil Shelton with the Ozark Land Company, a developer active in Missouri and Arkansas. What he is seeing now is a “new iteration” of that movement,” he said, and one driven by innovation: the pre-built ‘tiny home’, typically 400-600 square feet. Small structures have made home ownership more affordable, he said, for some accelerating the new mood of escapism. “This tiny-house movement is the biggest thing I’ve seen since” the 1970s, Shelton said. Kim Moore, 63, said she and her husband had bought nearly 60 acres in North Carolina after enjoying a holiday there. “I’m not a survivalist, but as much as possible, I’d like to live on the land,” she said. Moore and her husband plan to build a series of small homes and create a “co-housing” community of family, friends and others with similar values. “I want it to be sustainable, something that isn’t going to ruin the land, and something that’s big enough that all of my friends can join in,” she said. “It’s something that feeds my soul.” Read More 4 4 News Article, couple who built self-sufficient home out of clay and straw Bill Masen - March 15, 2022 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-10191339/Couple-built-home-clay-say-theyve-paid-no-bills-DECADE.html Couple who built self-sufficient home out of CLAY and straw, and now live off the grid with their two kids, reveal they haven’t had to pay bills in over a DECADE – saving them $70K A YEAR Misty Murph’Ariens, 36, and her husband Bryce 46, met as chefs in Hamilton, Ontario and loved visiting his grandmother’s rural cottageIn 2009, they bought a piece of farmland for $37,500 and spent $10,000 building a house out of clay, sand, and strawThey get food from farm animals and their garden, electricity from solar panels, and water from a well on the propertyThey earn some money from a small local catering business but get around by cycling, walking, or on horseback because they have no carMisty homeschools their five- and seven-year-old daughters. A family that lives in an impressive off-grid self-built ‘clay’ home have paid no bills for over a decade — saving them $70,000 a year. Misty Murph’Ariens, 36, and her husband Bryce 46, have become homesteaders — self sufficiency experts — since moving into a remote Canadian forest 15 years ago. Now with their seven-year-old daughter Sage and five-year-old daughter Aurora, the Murph’Ariens is almost entirely self-sufficient, getting their food from a vegetable farm and a collection of animals, their electricity from solar panels, and their water from a well. The couple met while working as chefs in Hamilton, Ontario but quickly realized they weren’t suited to living in the big city. ‘From the moment we met we instantly knew we wanted to live an alternative lifestyle,’ Misty said. They went for a visit to Bryce’s grandmother’s cob cottage in rural Durham for 54 weekends in a row, falling in love with the far-out location. ‘Bryce’s grandmother’s cottage was so peaceful and we were constantly disappointed when we had to leave and go back to the city,’ Misty said. In 2006, they moved there permanently and immediately saw a change in their wellbeing. ‘I’ve always suffered with intense migraines but when we moved to the countryside they started to become less and less frequent,’ Misty said. ‘Six-months after moving they’d stopped completely, and I’m convinced it was the noise and the city environment which had been the cause of my discomfort. ‘Rural living immediately made sense to us, and the idea of being completely self sufficient was really appealing.’ They spent three years learning how to lead the homestead lifestyle before going out on their own and buying a piece of farmland in the local area for $37,500 in 2009. It was covered in trash and abandoned materials, which they spent weeks clearing. They then spent four months building a cob house — a natural material made of clay, sand, and straw — for just $10,000. Every summer since the move, they have expanded and improved their home. Their daughters are homeschooled by Misty and taught a traditional syllabus with the addition of key primal skills, animal care, and building techniques. To earn money, Misty and Bryce run a small catering business in the local community, but with no car, they get around by cycling, walking, or traveling on horseback. Bryce claims the reason their family is financially stable despite their lack of consistent income is their low cost, self-sufficient lifestyle. ‘We’ve worked out over the years that our annual living costs amount to approximately $15,000 — and that’s with raising two kids,’ he said. ‘We try to be as self sufficient as possible, farming and harvesting all the food we eat. ‘We do get the occasional shopping delivery to the nearest road, but that’s only for a very select range of essential items,’ he said. Most of their food comes from their own cows, chickens, and ducks, as well as a vegetable patch. The garden grows all the traditional orchard fruits and produces a variety of nuts and vegetables, which they harvest on a weekly basis. They cook their meals on a wooden stove, use solar panels for electricity, and collect water from a well. The pair estimate that their lives cost just $15,000 a year to fund — a whopping $70,000 CAD less than the average four person household in their province. ‘I think the difference with our lifestyle is not so much what we do, but why we do it,’ Bryce said. ‘Of course we do have to acquire money, but the focus of our day is finding the most sustainable and fulfilling way to live. ‘Whereas most people are spending the majority of their time working to afford the necessities of life, we spend our time working to acquire these necessities directly. ‘Granted, it’s not a life for everyone, but it works for us and, as a family, we’ve never been happier.’ Read More 6 7 News Article, Not exactly gloating, stockpiling ‘preppers’ have a moment Bill Masen - March 13, 2022 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-8114115/Not-exactly-gloating-stockpiling-preppers-moment.html TOLEDO, Ohio (AP) – Curt La Haise has put up with plenty of razzing from friends over the years who have called him paranoid for stockpiling an eight-month supply of food in his basement and having enough fuel to power his generator for almost an entire winter. They’re not laughing anymore amid panic buying that has cleared store shelves across the U.S. and growing fears that the new coronavirus will force many Americans to self-quarantine for weeks in their homes. “Now my friends are like, `What should I do, what should I get?´” said La Haise, who operates a firearms and safety training business near Sun Prairie, Wisconsin. “Prepping doesn´t look so bad now.” For those in the often-mocked “prepper” community, this is quickly becoming their “I told you so” moment. But many are resisting saying that, even if it’s in the back of their minds. What they hope is that they’ll finally be taken seriously and that more people will follow their lead. “We’re not laughing. We’re not saying,`I told you so,’ when people are out there fighting over toilet paper and hand sanitizers,” said Paul Buescher, of Northfield Center Township, Ohio. Buescher is one of 32 members of a group in northeastern Ohio that shares a farm packed with enough canned and dehydrated food and water to last for years. He said he is now getting calls all day long asking for advice. Survival supply stores can’t keep up with the demand for food kits and medical supplies. “Every single business that has to do with emergency preparedness is overloaded,” said John Ramey, founder of a Colorado-based prepper website called The Prepared. Most preppers say they are about self-reliance and common sense and are quick to distance themselves from the “doomsday preppers” who are depicted on television shows awaiting the day most of the world’s population is wiped off the map. “The vast majority of this is beans and Band-Aids, not bullets and bunkers,” Ramey said. Jim Cobb, a disaster readiness consultant and editor-in-chief of Prepper Survival Guide magazine, said he has seen a few fellow preppers gloating on social media about people who are crowding stores in search of disinfectants. “I hate the thought of alienating any of them because they think were a bunch of elitist goofballs.” he said. “We’re trying to take advantage of the opportunity that for once they’re not laughing and pointing fingers at us.” While most people who have tested positive for the virus experience only mild or moderate symptoms, there’s a greater danger and longer recovery period for older adults and people with existing health problems. Experts say it’s most important to practice safe hygiene: Wash hands frequently, cover sneezes and coughs, and stay home if fever or other symptoms arise. As for the preppers, they have their own recommendations for anyone who is unsure of what to do next: – Be ready to stay at home for at least two weeks. Have plenty of food and water. Don’t forget about your pets and medicines. That includes over-the-counter products for fevers and coughs. – Yes, toilet paper is important, but so are hand sanitizers, disinfectants, sanitation wipes, eye protection and gloves. – Get your finances in order. Make sure you can pay your bills and have cash on hand. – Maybe most important, relax and don´t panic. And pay attention to the news and what’s happening around you. Read More 4 0 News Millions in ‘zero-Covid’ China are in lockdown as virus cases TRIPLE Bill Masen - March 13, 2022 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10607901/Millions-zero-Covid-China-lockdown-virus-cases-TRIPLE-surge-infections.html Millions of people across China have been plunged into a lockdown on Sunday as cases of Covid-19 tripled after a surge in infections in the north east cause the worst outbreak the country has seen in two years. A total of 1,938 new cases of coronavirus have been reported by authorities in China on Sunday, which is three times the Saturday figures. Tighter controls have been put in place for those looking to access Shanghai, with services in the eastern port city, of over 24 million people, have been suspended after their cases rose by 15 to 432. Anyone wanting to enter Shanghai requires a Covid-19 test to enter. The nationwide surge in cases has seen authorities close schools in Shanghai and lock down central neighbourhoods in the southern city of Shenzhen. Neighbouring mainland cities Jilin and Changchun, in the north east, contributed to around three quarters of the total, reporting 1,412 total cases. Entry to Changchun, which neighbours Jilin city and is within the Chinese province of Jilin, has been suspended, with families also told to stay at home. Read More 2 0 News < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Next > Recently Active News for the week of 2024-05-13 - 3 days agoNews for the Week 2024-04-29 - 1 week agoNews for the week of 2024-05-06 - 1 week agoNews for the Week 2024-04-22 - 4 weeks agoNews for the Week 2024-04-15 - 4 weeks ago RULES This forum is heavily moderated to keep things valuable to as many people as possible. Full community policies are here. The basics: 1. Be nice to each other. 2. Stay focused on prepping. 3. Avoid politics, religion, and other arguments. 4. No unfounded conspiracies, fake news, etc. 5. Debate ideas, not people. FILTER Show all Advice Gear Meta News Scenarios Skills

Prepper demographics updated with 2020 FEMA survey data: over 20M people in the US alone!

Dr. Chris Ellis - November 19, 2022

Editor’s note: Colonel Chris Ellis, PhD, directs a disaster cell for the US military at India-Pacific Command. In part via his fellowship as a Goodpaster Scholar at Cornell University, he’s spent years analyzing data about the preparedness community.

The last time we analyzed FEMA survey data, it caused a bit of a splash, becoming #1 on google for “prepper demographics” and leading to a wave of mainstream press coverage about how this community has grown and moved into the mainstream. (Such as today’s 60 Minutes episode about the market growth!)

But that was using 2018 pre-Covid data (which is released years later), and we’ve since been anxious to get hands on the data FEMA collected after the pandemic changed everything.  Everyone’s been expecting that Covid — and everything else that’s made ’20-22 so much fun — did nothing but continue to pour fuel on the fire of this growing community.

I’ve finished crunching the numbers using FEMA phone surveys collected in the first half of 2020, comparing it with annual data from the National Household Survey (NHS) going back through 2017.

So this does capture the Covid effect, but perhaps may have been too soon to really reflect the long-term changes, as people were still caught in the chaos the first months of 2020, just trying to figure out how to get toilet paper or not be a cat on their courtroom Zoom.  The future batch of data that covers ‘20-21 should be more telling.

Key takeaways:

The number of people who can handle >31 days of self-reliance grew 50% over the 2017-20 period. The 20 million US preppers mark has solidly been crossed.  If you use the broader definition of a prepper as someone who can handle at least two weeks of disruption, the number gets even higher. That means around 7% of all US households were actively working on self-reliance in ’19-20, solidly increasing from 2% to 3% then 5% in recent years.  10% is only a matter of time. While the “basic preppers” segment was consistently growing year over year before Covid, the “advanced preppers” segment had been flat or even shrank a little — but that trend reversed in 2020, showing that many people saw the need to go beyond the basics in response to world events. Nothing major changed around geography: the same states that prep a lot (eg. Montana) and those that don’t (eg. Washington D.C.) stayed in their relative rankings.  Islanders, such as people in Hawaii and Puerto Rico, continue to prep at rates 50% higher than mainlanders. Rural households are still more likely than urbanites to prep, but we continue to see strong growth among city dwellers. Asians disproportionately embraced prepping in ’20, which perhaps makes sense given what they may have been hearing from friends and family back in Asia during early Covid combined with some of the anti-Asian racism that grew in the US in ’20. Perhaps most surprising: the trend in recent years was that preppers were getting younger. But that trend reversed in 2020, with the average age actually increasing a little to 52.6.  The number of younger preppers still grew — 25-34 year olds are still the largest segment on The Prepared — but there was even more growth among the older crowd during this period. There’s some weird results in this data, though, which show there’s still a disconnect between reality and how a typical household thinks about risk.  But we’ve started getting a peek at the ’21 data, where FEMA changed some of the survey questions to be clearer, and I think it will result in better data going forward.  

While the term “prepper” is ill-defined quantitatively, in my research I use a simple heuristic from the NHS: how long can you survive at home without publicly provided water, power, or transportation?  I quantify anyone with 31 days or more of self-reported preparedness as a Resilient Citizen.  Those with 30 days or less are Regulars.  Highly Resilient Citizens (HRCs) have 90 days or more and Ultra-High Resilient Citizens (UHRCs) are at 97 or more days (the maximum allowed response in FEMA’s survey).

Preparedness trends

Americans collectively have increased their levels of disaster preparedness from 2017 to 2020.  For Regulars, the effect is small – an average of seven days in 2017 to just over eight days in 2020 – but still measurable.  For this group, each year saw a slight increase.  When including Resilient Citizens and averaging all Americans, the mean jumped from just under 10 days of resilience in 2017 to 12.4 days in 2020.

The overall number of Resilient Citizens in America has also increased every year.  In 2017, approximately four out of every 100 people was a Resilient Citizen. In 2020 it had increased 50% to nearly six per 100.  In sheer numbers this means 14.9 million Americans had 31 days or more of at-home preparedness in 2020.  Ultra-Highly Resilient Citizens (97 days or more of preparedness) jumped from four million people in 2017 to 6.7 million in 2020.  There is still a heavy stereotype against “preppers,” but as more people prepare from across the political spectrum – and in various ways – the stigma appears to be slowly eroding.

Geography

Where do these households reside?  I analyzed the data in two different ways.  First was by US state or territory.  Generally speaking, lower population, rural states have the highest rates of preparedness.  Montana, Idaho, Alaska, New Hampshire, Maine, Utah, Wyoming, West Virginia, Delaware, and Hawaii make up the top ten, in descending order (i.e. Montana had the highest average).  The lowest average states were, with the exception of Texas and Illinois, all east coast states or the District of Columbia (Washington, DC was the lowest, followed by Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Rhode Island, New York, Massachusetts, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina).  A cursory look at yearly changes, by state, yielded no discernable pattern.  California and Florida saw annual increases in Resilient Citizens all four years, but Texas and New York saw random fluctuation.

Another pattern that held from my previous research was that of higher aggregate rates of preparedness in US islands (Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands).  The four-year average of residents of island locales indicates preparedness rates ~50% higher than those on the mainland (15.7 days versus 10.8 days respectively).  I maintain my original conjecture that primary drivers of this disparate finding are a “fear of state failure” coupled with an inability to easily flee larger disasters for island residents.

A second way to geographically analyze the data is by an urban-rural delineation.  The US Department of Agriculture bins zip codes into one of ten population density categories (1 = an urban area with 50,000 people or more, 10 = rural at less than 2,500 people).  There is a positive correlation between ruralness and higher levels of preparedness across all Americans.  80% of Regulars surveyed lived in an urban area.  However, a sizable two-thirds of all self-identified Resilient Citizens and 56% of UHRCs lived in an urban area as well.

Race

In regard to race, the four-year aggregates of all Americans yields that the category “Alaskan or Native American” had the highest average at 14 days of preparedness.  After this was Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders, then Whites, Hispanics, Blacks/African Americans, and Asians, in that order.  Whites and Blacks saw yearly increases while the other races had fluctuations.  Asians were very stable from 2017-2019 but saw a major jump in 2020.  Several possibilities explain this latter finding: increased discrimination, higher cultural or social transmission of preparedness, news consumption patterns, or affinity to stories emanating from China and Asia writ large at the beginning of COVID.

The story among Resilient Citizens is slightly different.  For four-year aggregates, Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders topped the list at 92 days, followed by Alaskans/Native Americans (79 days), then Hispanics (77), Whites (76), Blacks (71), and Asians (65).  A large word of caution is in order here though, with all races other than Whites, the number of minority resilient citizens is quite low in any given year.  There are not enough respondents in these categories for me to confidently depict any racial patterns among Resilient Citizens on a yearly basis.  Relatedly, when conducting multi-variate analysis and controlling for things such as income, education, and an urban vs. rural home location, the variable of race was a poor indicator of being a Resilient Citizen or not.  The maximum observed impact across numerous calculations was only 2%.

Age

Resilient Citizens are slightly older (52.6 years old) overall than Regulars (51.7), but this difference is less than a year.  Interestingly though, the steady growth in Resilient Citizens is NOT among the young.  The 35 and under crowd make up a much smaller percentage of Resilient Citizens in 2020 (14.4%) than they did in 2017 (20.6%).  Comparatively, growth in those aged 36-49 is nearly 50% and for those 50+ it is 62% from 2017 to 2020.  Isolating those 60 and over saw a near doubling; the increase was 92%!  Some of this differentiation between young and old could be due to income levels and overall net worth.

 

Other variables

In all of the data analyzed, the most shocking finding to me was the reported rates of experiencing a disaster.  FEMA asked, “Have you or your family ever experienced the impacts of a disaster?”  Among all respondents, the 2020 data – in the midst of COVID – was slightly down as compared to 2017.  Among all Resilient Citizens, it was down nine full percentage points.  The 2020 survey was conducted in the summer of 2020, at the height of the first lockdown and several months before any vaccines were developed and available.  

A higher percentage of women reported being Resilient Citizens in 2020 than in 2017, but the numbers were too small for any statistical significance.  Another interesting jump was in the number of Resilient Citizens with a disability.  There was a 50% increase from 2017 to 2020.  Of note, the FEMA data indicated, at best, only a 3% rise in disabilities in the overall population during the same timeframe.  

Among preparedness circles is the concept of “bugging out”.  That is, quickly leaving your home at – or just prior to – disaster onset with an already assembled bag of emergency supplies.  Among Regulars, even though they reported higher rates of at home preparedness, their reported ready-to-go rates saw no discernable patterns among the four years studied.  By contrast, Resilient Citizens reported a 35% jump in bug-out readiness in 2019 and maintained that new high in 2020.  

Homeowner’s insurance levels increased in both groups slightly, however there were just three years of data, so this could be observed randomness.  Money saved for an emergency increased among Regulars but decreased among Resilient Citizens.  My hunch is that Resilient Citizens converted cash into preps.

What didn’t change?  Education levels between Regulars and Resilient Citizens continues to be nearly equal across all four years.  Income levels were relatively stable with Resilient Citizens on average earning a few thousand dollars more per year than Regulars.  Resilient Citizens still report higher levels of confidence in their ability to take the steps necessary to prepare for a disaster than Regulars.  Resilient Citizens also maintain they are far more likely to have had a disaster plan for at least a year. 

Looking forward to 2021 data

FEMA has just released the 2021 National Household Survey raw data.  The survey instrument has undergone some substantial changes.  First of all, it’s a larger query of America.  2021’s sample size is around 7,200 people versus the roughly 5,000 per year in each of the 2017-2020 datasets.  Secondly, some of the key questions have been modified.  For example, people are no longer asked their monthly income, but rather their annual income.  I personally think this will yield clearer results. 

Another question modification that will have significant impact on comparing 2021 to previous years is my key variable of days of total survival at home.  2021’s new survey instrument no longer asks about how long one could last at home without power, water, or transportation.  It now breaks these down into separate questions.  For example: “How long could you live in your home without power?”  And, the answers are no longer discrete numbers, but rather chronological heuristics such as “More than one week” or “More than three months.”  If you assume that those who answered at more than one month and more than three months, combined, for both the power question and the running water question are analogous to Resilient Citizens, then the percentage of Americans in 2021 at this higher level is now 8.3%, or roughly 21.5 million Americans.  Analysis is ongoing and I hope to release findings in 2023.

Read More

21

9

MetaNews

Preview of whole new TP website launching soon

John AdamaStaff - November 11, 2022

Timing update: The person building the website got sick with the ‘tripledemic,’ so we’re delayed at least into January.

Crossposting this from the blog since some people only visit one or the other (which we’re fixing in the new site, haha!) 

This first version is more about cleaning up the existing site/experiments and laying a solid foundation for faster future improvements. For example, the current site tech prevented us from improving the way threaded convos happen here in the forum / how you could track what was the newest comment. The new foundation will let us do that.

More details and sneak peeks here. Example:

Read More

12

4

MetaNews

Giveaway: New survival guide book from Alone’s S9 Juan Pablo Quinonez

John AdamaStaff - October 23, 2022

Edit: All copies are spoken for

To spread the news about the books release, current Alone season contestant JP is sending out 3 free copies to the TP community, with the expectation of a fair review shared here later! (Your help is how we keep the best books list updated too!)

The book is THRIVE: Long-Term Wilderness Survival Guide. (It’s 120,000 words, so you’re not expected to read the whole thing. Just a fair shake.) Seems like more of a reference guide “covering modern survival skills with bushcraft techniques, step-by-step instructions, and over 400 illustrations.”

First come first served. Reply here (we’ll email the address on your account) or contact us directly via email: hello@thissite 

Read More

10

15

GearNews

Hikers caught in a wildfire

Kira - September 19, 2022

Hi all,

Came across this article about how two hikers that got caught in a wildfire survived (no pay wall) and thought some of y’all might be interested:  https://www.khq.com/news/hikers-stranded-atop-mountain-by-bolt-creek-fire/article_d6cc054e-322e-11ed-9165-231473ca123d.html

They assumed the smoke was coming from the other side of the mountains. They weren’t able to be evacuated by first responders, came close to the fire several times, ran out of water, and nearly fell of a cliff, but were ultimately able to find their car and evacuate. I’m curious what, if any, different choices or preparations you might have made? I’d have avoided going outside in smoke full stop (it’s thick enough to coat my yard in ash, and I’m several towns over!) and would have checked the fire map (again, thick smoke).

Read More

11

21

News

Study: scientists should research possibility of human extinction from climate change

Ant0kneeguy - September 12, 2022

A study was published on August 1st (Edit: 2022) in a collaboration from researchers from various countries and universities, including the esteemed Oxford and Cambridge. It doesn’t assess the likelihood of human extinction, but instead looks at how much research has been done on this crucial topic. And a popular news broadcaster in the UK even took up the story.The authors conclude that science is sorely lacking. To quote the paper directly: “The closest attempts to directly study or comprehensively address how climate change could lead to human extinction or global catastrophe have come through popular science books”. Not scientific, peer-reviewed research. Pop-sci books.

As far as I can tell, the closest current science actually gets is examining individual risks (e.g: how food production will be affected by rising temperatures) rather than taking them together, let alone looking at how risks might cascade into or exacerbate each other.But I suppose what surprised me the most, and why I’m writing about this, is this. Exisitential risk is actually making the news in a highly-regarded, mainstream news outlet, and is becoming the subject of serious research from respected academic institutions. The fact that Cambridge University actually has a Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at all I think shows the beginnings of a step change in attitudes. Naturally, we have a way to go. I laughed out loud at how the news article described the study: “The researchers said that seriously studying the consequences of worst-case scenarios was vital, even though it might scare people.” It would seem that most are (understandably) still of the attitude ‘we shouldn’t talk about scary things because it paralyses people’, but things may be beginning to change.

What do you all think about this? The study is here, and the news article talking about it is here.

Read More

11

13

News

Free FEMA webinar with TP and myself

John AdamaStaff - August 8, 2022

Excited to share that FEMA has partnered with The Prepared to improve their public content and training! (How many other “prepper websites” can say that?!) 

Our first webinar is in a week, Wednesday July 13th from 1-2:30ish US Eastern. A recording will be available after, which I’ll share here.

Update: Link to recording.

Registration: https://fema.connectsolutions.com/theprepared/event/registration.html

Their announcement: 

I’ll teach/soapbox for 45 mins or so, then up to 45 mins of Q&A. We’ll cover the modern preparedness framework TP’s credited with popularizing, show specific gear examples, talk about skills and next steps, and so on. Basically a crash course for both personal prepping and how to teach others / be a community leader.

If you’re already familiar with TP’s teachings, there won’t be anything new (I’m essentially teaching what’s already on our website), but you’re of course welcome to join anyway — there will be a few hundred leaders from various CERT organizations, leaders of big FEMA chapters like New York City, and so on. 

Read More

21

14

MetaNews

Prepping in old German barracks, an article about trying to stay positive about a collapse of the food supply

Juna - August 8, 2022

Yesterday I read this interesting article by The Guardian about a prepper who bought an old German barrack

Change is coming’: Meet the Englishman prepping for climate apocalypse in an old German barracks

Read More

4

1

News

New affordable online pharmacy saves people thousands on life saving medicine

rebecca - July 2, 2022

You may have seen Mark Cuban on Shark Tank as the famous billionaire investor/businessman. He recently opened up an online pharmacy that is trending all over the news right now with the amazing cost savings that it is offering to people. Instead of selling drugs for ridiculous amounts, they only mark it up 15% (still a healthy profit for them). A traditional pharmacy may charge you or your insurance company $9657, but at this place it is only $39. Isn’t that insane how much of a savings that is for you? Important medications are now accessible to people who may have just gone without, rationed, or went bankrupt trying to stay alive.

If you need a lifesaving prescription medication, check out costplusdrugs.com and see if you can get it cheaper on there. 

They don’t take insurance cards to pay for the drugs, but the savings are still so incredibly good that you might end up paying less for the same medication then you were with your co-pay or deductible.

It is easier to store up some extra $40 medication than it is a $9500 one. Hopefully this allows people to not only have what they need, but save some up for a rainy day if there are supply chain issues, job loss, etc.

Read More

10

4

News

How has rising gas prices influenced you?

Conrad B - June 12, 2022

I really thought that we would see a small spike in gas prices with the conflict in Ukraine and then level out, but it doesn’t seem to stop.

Chart from Gasbuddy.com and is the national average. 

How has the rising gas prices affected everyone? Are you driving less? Have you bought a more fuel efficient vehicle? Did you switch jobs to commute less?

I’ve been driving much less often and combine all my errands into one trip so that I don’t have to go out. It changes the way I prepare because I need to store more items on hand and sometimes just go without something like bread for a couple days until I build up enough reasons to go out again. I don’t visit family or go out for entertainment as much as I used to either. It feels like I am back under quarantine and is starting to affect my mental health like during covid. 

I also rotate through my stored gas cans every 6 months so I don’t have to buy fuel stabilizer, but maybe it would be cheaper to stabilize the fuel because 6 months from now it might be much higher.

Stupid me is going to laugh and be wish for $4.90 gas in 2 months time when it’s then around $6.25 or something. 

Read More

10

14

News

Be aware of infectious disease outbreaks near you with this free map tracker

CamilleContributor - June 11, 2022

Wanted to link a resource I was recently introduced to that lets you track health including: animal diseases, environmental disasters, hospital acquired infections, vectorborne diseases, STDs, respiratory infections etc across the world. You can narrow it down to your local area and see what is in your region that you can think about preparing for.

https://www.healthmap.org/en/

Read More

16

2

News

Cost-of-living crisis changes Brits’ shopping habits: Hard-pressed shoppers are bulk buying

Bill Masen - June 2, 2022

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10712489/British-shoppers-resorting-bulk-buying-amid-cost-living-crisis.html

Ala Prepping style:)

British shoppers are bulk-buying groceries to save money amid the ongoing cost of living crisis, a new report has suggested.

The Barclaycard consumer survey found that 35 per cent of card users were stocking up on everyday items such as tea and coffee, tinned tuna and hygiene products such as shampoo and hand soap.

Buying in bulk can equal less trips to the supermarket – meaning less money spent on increasingly expensive fuel – while there are often savings to be had in buying products at wholesale. 

According to the report, gathered using data from March, 13 per cent of shoppers are stocking up on canned tomatoes, baked beans, tuna, pasta, flour, rice and grains. 

Meanwhile, 11 per cent are bulk-buying household supplies such as toilet roll, while 10 per cent are stocking up on laundry detergent and shampoo. 

At least 10 per cent are also getting extra supplies of tea and coffee.  

Shoppers also admitted to bulk buying over-the-counter painkillers (8 per cent), pet food (7 per cent), fizzy drinks (6 per cent), alcohol (5 per cent), Easter eggs and chocolate (5 per cent) and baby supplies (3 per cent).      

José Carvalho, Head of Consumer Products at Barclaycard, said: ‘Many sectors saw strong growth in March compared to the same period in 2019, as sunnier weather encouraged Brits to socialise at pubs and bars, book staycations and update their wardrobes for spring and summer.

‘However, rising fuel prices and household bills are clearly starting to influence consumer behaviour, with many Brits changing their travel and shopping habits to save money. 

While this may dampen growth in the months ahead, we shouldn’t overlook the expected heatwave later in April, and the fast-approaching Easter holidays, both of which are likely to boost non-essential spending.’  

The data from Barclaycard, which sees nearly half of the nation’s credit and debit card transactions, revealed that spending on essential items grew 18.1 per cent in March, the highest uplift since September 2021. 

However this was largely driven by spend on fuel, which soared 26.1 per cent as prices at the pump continued to climb.  

Card spending in general grew 17.7 per cent last month compared to the same period in 2019, as Brits took advantage of the sunnier weather and lifting of all remaining Covid restrictions to visit pubs, dine out, and update their wardrobes in preparation for the months ahead. 

However, the cost of living is causing increasing concern for most UK adults, with travel plans and shopping preferences changing in response to rising fuel and food prices.

Some two fifths of drivers (41 per cent) said they are changing the way they travel. 

Of these, over half (54 per cent) are walking more often, almost two-fifths (38 per cent) are cutting back on long car journeys, and 22 per cent are opting to cycle instead.

Supermarkets saw a 16.9 per cent jump in card spendings – higher than the growth recorded in both January (15.5 per cent) and February (16.0 per cent) this year – but much of this was likely due to inflation and rising food prices. 

Spending on essentials was also boosted by a demand for convenience and the popularity of local shopping, with food and drink specialist stores (butchers, bakeries and online meal-kit providers) up by 76.9 per cent compared with three years ago.  

Barclaycard made comparisons with three years ago because consumer spending was so heavily affected by the lockdowns in March 2020 and March 2021. 

Read More

10

2

News

Another article on UK preppers

UKSeb - June 1, 2022

In the “prepping goes mainstream” series… 

Everyone should prep’: the Britons stocking up for hard times

Read More

10

4

News

Computer Fraud and Abuse Act News

Karl Winterling - May 25, 2022

I migrated this from the news blog discussion because I thought it was a little tangential.

I thought the following news could potentially be of interest to preppers, especially if you take OpSec very seriously and don’t always like saying who you are.

The Department of Justice made revisions to its Computer Fraud and Abuse Act policy (see also here, though I want to clarify that I don’t consider myself a libertarian and I don’t necessarily agree with everything on the Reason Magazine Web site):

The DOJ will not prosecute “good faith security research” or “White Hat hacking.” In most circumstances, companies won’t be able to arbitrarily make it a felony to violate terms of service. In severe cases (maybe “stalking-like” behavior that doesn’t rise to the level of being illegal, like a guy writes about a woman without directly harassing her) the violator must discontinue the behavior after receiving and reading a cease and desist letter.

Of course, social media companies will know who you are if we end up with a left-wing dictatorship, right-wing dictatorship, or some other form of authoritarian government. Prep accordingly.

Read More

8

2

News

What shortages/price hikes are you all anticipating?

CamilleContributor - April 26, 2022

I feel like I’ve seen a lot of news about higher fuel prices and an expectation that wheat will be in short supply and higher in price, but I was reading this article and found that Russia is one of the leading exporters of fertilizer. Fertilizer shortages could ultimately really impact agricultural yields globally. What shortages/price hikes are you all anticipating and prepping for?

Read More

19

23

NewsScenarios

Sunflower oil: UK bottler has a few weeks’ supply left

Bill Masen - April 12, 2022

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60941091

The biggest cooking oil bottler for UK shops has said it only has a few weeks’ supply of sunflower oil left.Ukraine and Russia produce most of the world’s sunflower oil and the war is disrupting exports, said Edible Oils.The company, which packages oil for 75% of the UK retail market, is ramping up supplies of other oils for shoppers.Meanwhile, manufacturers of foods that contain sunflower oil, like crisps, oven chips and cereal bars, are reworking their recipes.The Food Standards Agency has advised people with allergies to look out for extra information from shops and food makers.Kim Matthews, commercial director at Edible Oils said 80% of the global supply of sunflower oil comes out of Russia and Ukraine.”So obviously, with everything going on out there, we physically can’t get sunflower to be coming out of the country,” he said.

If you buy any cooking oil on the supermarket shelves, chances are it has come from the Edible Oils plant in Erith, on the outskirts of south-east London. It bottles oil for brands and retailers own label products.”From a UK consumer perspective, sunflower oil is the biggest oil. It’s used more than anything else,” said Mr Matthews.”It’s a fast moving situation. We’re still trying to see if we can get some more but it’s looking very tight.”Edible Oils Ltd has upped production to 24/7 to try to make sure it has plenty of rapeseed and other oils to put on the shelves when the sunflower oil goes.”Sunflower is great because you can cook at high temperatures. Rapeseed is very similar. You can do exactly the same with it,” he said.But it was far from clear when sunflower oil supplies will be back to normal, he said.”At the moment, Ukrainian farmers should be sowing the seeds now for the harvest in October and November.”Clearly that’s not going to happen… we’re probably going to miss the season so we could be impacted for 12-18 months.”

Read More

7

12

News

The Guardian profiles international go-bags

atlanticrando - April 6, 2022

“Your life is under threat. You might have to run any second. What do you take?” – The Guardian

I thought folks here might find this to be of interest. The piece highlights the diverse and rational needs for personal preparedness that are not at all the apocalyptic or paranoid variety.

While only a few of these kits would be The Prepared-approved for their thoroughness, most of the bags reflect some preparedness staples: important documents, communications, medicine, hygiene, and family care. I think it shows some interesting perspectives and that a go-bag is not a one-size-all solution: people do have distinctly different needs, priorities, and scenarios depending on their circumstances and personal values. A complete 30-50lb kit is not going to be achievable or useful in a lot of circumstances, especially for those living in high density urban environments for whom mobility is most important.

Read More

8

8

News

Surging energy prices leave British glasshouses empty

JennyWren - April 1, 2022

This may sound trivial on the face of it, however, it shows how difficult life could get very soon. The crisis in the Ukraine has the potential to affect much larger swathes in life. With energy price rises affecting us directly through heating and fuel costs, it’s also coming indirectly through food and transport. 

I’ve cherry picked a few points from the article.

High Energy Costs Means Crops Not Planted.

ROYDON, England, March 31 (Reuters) – In a small corner of south-east England, vast glasshouses stand empty, the soaring cost of energy preventing their owner from using heat to grow cucumbers for the British market.

Elsewhere in the country growers have also failed to plant peppers, aubergines and tomatoes after a surge in natural gas prices late last year was exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, making the crops economically unviable.

 The hit to UK farms, which need gas to counter the country’s inclement weather, is one of the myriad ways the energy crisis and invasion have hit food supplies around the world, with global grain production and edible oils also under threat.”

Montalbano, whose grandfather emigrated from Sicily in 1968 and started a nursery to provide local stores with fresh cucumbers, decided not to plant the first of the year’s three cycles in January.

SOARING COSTS

Last year he paid 40-50 pence a therm for natural gas. Last week it was 2.25 pounds a therm, having briefly hit a record 8 pounds in the wake of Russia’s invasion.

Fertiliser prices have tripled versus last year, while the cost of carbon dioxide – used both to aid growing and in packaging – and hard-to-attain labour have also shot up.

“We are now in an unprecedented situation where the cost increases have far outstripped a grower’s ability to do anything about them,” said Jack Ward, head of British Growers.

It means a massive contraction for the industry, threatening Britain’s future food security, and further price rises for UK consumers already facing a bigger inflation hit than other countries in Europe following Brexit.

UK inflation hit a 30-year high of 6.2% in February and is forecast to approach 9% in late 2022, contributing to the biggest fall in living standards since at least the 1950s.

Bill mentioned in another thread that there could well be a petrol/diesel shortage further down the line as fuel is diverted to the expeditionary forces lining up at the Russian borders. I’m not feeling very optimistic at the moment. 🙁

Read More

7

7

News

Finland and national preparedness (Financial Times)

atlanticrando - March 28, 2022

In light of the Ukrainian invasion, FT has posted a story describing Finland’s national preparedness strategy/culture that I thought some here might find interesting.

“But what Finland calls its strategy of ‘comprehensive security’ offers an example of how countries can create rigorous, society-wide systems to protect themselves ahead of time — planning not just for a potential invasion, but also for natural disasters or cyber attacks or a pandemic. 

This is not only about military readiness. It also extends to what Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a security expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, describes as the ‘boring, unsexy work’ of ensuring that laws and rules work in times of crisis.”

I think it’s well known that some European states, like Finland and Switzerland, have very deeply engrained military or civil defense infrastructure, but there’s some thoughts here about working with the private sector, etc. that might be of interest. While it’s not a perfect system, there are some things here that other countries should consider, such as dual use infrastructure in case of emergency, etc. From a North American perspective, it would be prudent if Canada and the US investigated some of these measures, given that extreme weather, wildfire risk, etc., etc. is only going to increase.

Read More

8

1

News

One woman’s 18-point survival checklist for fleeing Ukraine as Russia invades : NPR

wildfireexpert - March 21, 2022

Found this on NPR two days ago.   Thought it was fascinating and wanted to share with y’all since there are several threads about Ukraine on the forum.

One woman’s survival checklist fleeing Ukraine

Read More

15

1

NewsScenarios

European energy prices going through the roof

Bill Masen - March 19, 2022

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10585147/Oil-price-surges-125-barrel-highest-level-2008.html

Gas price rockets leaving billpayers facing £5,000 price capThe price of gas has gone through the roof to record levels today as the West prepares to boycott Russia’s fossil fuels, which raises $1billion-a-day for Vladimir Putin’s war chest.

With global markets in turmoil, UK wholesale gas hit 800 pence per therm today – up from 39p a year ago – amid claims that the monthly price cap planned for October 1 could have to be raised to £5,000-a-year. 

To clarify before the Covid Pandemic and the Ukranian conflict the average Brit was paying £1250 ($1645) a year of electricity and gas.  A month or so ago that rose to over £1900 ($ 2500) a year, and is definately going to hit £3000 ($ 3900) a year at the end of October 22.   The way these issues are affecting energy prices it is now forecast to rise to between  £4000 and £5000 ( $ 5260 –  $ 6500) a year up from £1250.

Millions are going to have a choice soon, HEAT or EAT but not both.

I cannot possibly emphasize enough that if you can go OFF GRID on heat and Light, even partially (like getting a wood stove)  you REALLY should.

Read More

7

16

News

Supply line news – Impacts of pandemic, war, inflation, and whatever comes next

Pops - March 18, 2022

A thread for news about possible and observed supply impacts of pandemic, war, inflation, and whatever comes next. I’m US-based so please chime in with reports from other regions.

Grain. Although the US doesn’t import much grain, we do bring in about 100 million tons a year, and we are big exporters. That means we are exposed to the world grain price. RU and Ukraine (UA) export about 12% of global calories traded. About 30% of wheat, 20% of corn and 80% of sunflower oil. UA.gov voted to ban exports and RU sanctions will have a big effect.

Chips. (not potato) In addition to the existing supply bottlenecks and huge demand for microchips, it turns out Ukraine produces 50% of the neon in the world and has shut down both factories. So what? Neon is vital to the lasers that make microchip production possible. I have a PV charger on backorder—ostensibly due to the already existing chip shortages.

Fertilizer. In addition to food price increase, RU is a huge exporter of fertiliser and banned export of N back in February and banned other exports thursday. Prices of N increased 22% and K went up 34% on friday alone.  Not to put too fine a point on this, but fertilizer is the thing the Green Revolution was made of and what reset the timer on Ehrlich’s Population Bomb. So in addition to basic staples like grains, those of us who can grow some food should think about our fertiliser needs for the near term… and pesticides as well.

Lumber. Really building materials in general. Lumber price is nearly as high as it was at the height of the shutdowns. But in my experience going to the big box every week, the racks of about everything are better supplied now. If you can possibly put off a lumber purchase I think you will be able to save some money. But that’s just a guess and as I’m remodeling an old house, I can’t really postpone, so there is that.

Nickel, Copper, etc. Maybe getting into the weeds here but copper set an all-time high price this month and nickel was up 30%. China uses around half the supply and is driving consumption—because they make electronics for the rest of the world. I personally feel that the reason putin is going into UA now is that they past their peak in oil production on 2019, that is according to the RU oil ministry last year. So he’s gotta get to putting the USSR back together quick while he can. Having said all that, high oil price is going to drive up the price of lots of metals because they are needed for BEVs and renewable energy.  Energy Skeptic talks about these things a lot, she has an article up now talking about the huge amount of raw materials needed to transition away from fossils.

We live in a complicated and interconnected world where everything comes from somewhere else. Stuff is unfolding surprisingly fast at the moment, normality bias makes my cognition slow to respond. Most of the time there is enough slack, at least in my rich world, just in time supply line, that critical shortages don’t appear. But to me prepping is primarily about keeping ahead of whatever supply glitches and shortages.

What do you see coming down the pike?

Read More

10

10

News

Interesting article from 2020 about US Homesteaders

Bill Masen - March 17, 2022

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-7933655/Homesteaders-catastrophists-run-hills-flee-U-S-uncertainty.html

Homesteaders, catastrophists run for the hills to flee U.S. uncertaintyBy Reuters

 Published:  10:01, 27 January 2020 

By Carey. L. Biron

WASHINGTON, Jan 27 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – Cheap housing, deep unease and intense resilience – all forces that are driving a clutch of Americans to swap city life for a fresh start off grid and far from civilisation.

Some are survivalists, among them high fliers who fear a looming, urban catastrophe and the mayhem that might follow.

Others want a greener, gentler life untainted by the malign forces of capitalism and uncertainty of mainstream politics.

Whichever camp, realtors say the new dropouts are not “crackpots” and often include affluent professionals whose run for the hills has boosted rural land values and started to change their property market. “I’ve had hedge-fund managers and billionaires that have made purchases, and they all have concerns about the direction of the economy and social stability,” said John E. Haynes, president of Retreat Realty in North Carolina.

“We’re on that upward trend,” he said. “Inventory of that land on the market is tighter.”

Haynes has worked in real estate for decades.

About four years ago, he rebranded his company to pitch property to a new and growing breed of buyer – those motivated by “concerns about social stability”.

He had a record year in 2019, and was busy in the run-up to the 2016 election, when Donald Trump came to power.

“I’m sensing that again,” he said. “People get uncertain, and they start making decisions on the political environment and what they anticipate.

“So I think 2020 will be a good year for my business.”

TIME TO RUN

Bruce – who values his privacy so would not let his full name be used – is buying 20 acres in remote North Carolina, where trees will become fuel and water springs from the land.

He has lived most of his life in cities, New York included.

But now the plan is to escape the urban jungle – a place of traffic, noise, poverty, crime and much else Bruce dislikes.

“It reached the point where we were tired of being on the defensive,” Bruce, in his mid-50s, said of city life and the hazardous technical setup on which it relies.

“Amazon can deliver groceries in two hours, but will the grocery store have food three days after a large disaster?” he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation, noting the cataclysmic potential of a major disruption in electrical generation.

“Our hope is nothing like this happens,” he said.

“But should it, we’ll be better prepared to survive in a rural setting, where more food is grown locally, where we have land on which to raise food or livestock, or hunt.”

ESCAPE TYRANNY

Often called survivalists or “preppers”, many escapees twin an expectation of impending doom – or outright social collapse – with a deep disbelief in the government’s ability to cope.

Buying land – or “bugout” property, derived from military slang for a retreat – is a priority, with real estate networks compiling national lists of “prepper lands”.

Most survivalist land purchases are in the mountains of the U.S. northwest, primarily Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.

In 2011, a blogger and former U.S. Army intelligence officer named James Wesley, Rawles – he includes the comma in his name – wrote a widely circulated post urging “freedom-loving Christians” to move to the region as a safe haven.

He dubbed the area the American Redoubt and urged followers to “buy land that will maximise your self-sufficiency.”

It is unclear how many heeded his call, but the Economist magazine estimated they numbered in the “thousands of families”.

Idaho in particular recorded a big influx.

The state had one of the top U.S. growth rates in 2015-16, driven in part by escapees from California and neighbouring Washington state, according to Boise State assistant professor Jeffrey Lyons.

Disaffected Californians make up a substantial number of clients for Black Rifle Real Estate, which says online that it helps people “Flee the City to the freedom and safety of Rural America and the famed American Redoubt.”

Broker Todd Savage said his business is at an all-time high, driven by frustration with how many U.S. cities are governed.

“Most of our clients are now looking to sell their postage-stamp size properties … and make what we call a ‘Strategic Relocation’ to a free state,” Savage said in an email.

Driven by new demand, the company is expanding outside of the so-called Redoubt – to Arizona, which Savage said enjoys lower taxes and far looser gun controls than liberal California.

“Arizona is the new Idaho for many seeking relief from the tyranny in California,” he said.

EMBRACE LAND

Conservatives are not alone in the new land rush.

Haynes said his clients in North Carolina are evenly split between survivalists and “homesteaders” – young, liberal, less affluent families seeking peace, quiet and a sustainable life.

“When I started out in 1973, the big thing then was the ‘back to the land’ movement,” said Neil Shelton with the Ozark Land Company, a developer active in Missouri and Arkansas.

What he is seeing now is a “new iteration” of that movement,” he said, and one driven by innovation: the pre-built ‘tiny home’, typically 400-600 square feet.

Small structures have made home ownership more affordable, he said, for some accelerating the new mood of escapism.

“This tiny-house movement is the biggest thing I’ve seen since” the 1970s, Shelton said.

Kim Moore, 63, said she and her husband had bought nearly 60 acres in North Carolina after enjoying a holiday there.

“I’m not a survivalist, but as much as possible, I’d like to live on the land,” she said.

Moore and her husband plan to build a series of small homes and create a “co-housing” community of family, friends and others with similar values.

“I want it to be sustainable, something that isn’t going to ruin the land, and something that’s big enough that all of my friends can join in,” she said.

“It’s something that feeds my soul.”

Read More

4

4

News

Article, couple who built self-sufficient home out of clay and straw

Bill Masen - March 15, 2022

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-10191339/Couple-built-home-clay-say-theyve-paid-no-bills-DECADE.html

Couple who built self-sufficient home out of CLAY and straw, and now live off the grid with their two kids, reveal they haven’t had to pay bills in over a DECADE – saving them $70K A YEAR

Misty Murph’Ariens, 36, and her husband Bryce 46, met as chefs in Hamilton, Ontario and loved visiting his grandmother’s rural cottageIn 2009, they bought a piece of farmland for $37,500 and spent $10,000 building a house out of clay, sand, and strawThey get food from farm animals and their garden, electricity from solar panels, and water from a well on the propertyThey earn some money from a small local catering business but get around by cycling, walking, or on horseback because they have no carMisty homeschools their five- and seven-year-old daughters.

A family that lives in an impressive off-grid self-built ‘clay’ home have paid no bills for over a decade — saving them $70,000 a year.

Misty Murph’Ariens, 36, and her husband Bryce 46, have become homesteaders — self sufficiency experts — since moving into a remote Canadian forest 15 years ago.

Now with their seven-year-old daughter Sage and five-year-old daughter Aurora, the Murph’Ariens is almost entirely self-sufficient, getting their food from a vegetable farm and a collection of animals, their electricity from solar panels, and their water from a well.

The couple met while working as chefs in Hamilton, Ontario but quickly realized they weren’t suited to living in the big city.  

‘From the moment we met we instantly knew we wanted to live an alternative lifestyle,’ Misty said.

They went for a visit to Bryce’s grandmother’s cob cottage in rural Durham for 54 weekends in a row, falling in love with the far-out location.

‘Bryce’s grandmother’s cottage was so peaceful and we were constantly disappointed when we had to leave and go back to the city,’ Misty said.

In 2006, they moved there permanently and immediately saw a change in their wellbeing. 

‘I’ve always suffered with intense migraines but when we moved to the countryside they started to become less and less frequent,’ Misty said.

‘Six-months after moving they’d stopped completely, and I’m convinced it was the noise and the city environment which had been the cause of my discomfort.

‘Rural living immediately made sense to us, and the idea of being completely self sufficient was really appealing.’

They spent three years learning how to lead the homestead lifestyle before going out on their own and buying a piece of farmland in the local area for $37,500 in 2009.

It was covered in trash and abandoned materials, which they spent weeks clearing. They then spent four months building a cob house — a natural material made of clay, sand, and straw — for just $10,000.

Every summer since the move, they have expanded and improved their home. 

Their daughters are homeschooled by Misty and taught a traditional syllabus with the addition of key primal skills, animal care, and building techniques.

To earn money, Misty and Bryce run a small catering business in the local community, but with no car, they get around by cycling, walking, or traveling on horseback.

Bryce claims the reason their family is financially stable despite their lack of consistent income is their low cost, self-sufficient lifestyle.

‘We’ve worked out over the years that our annual living costs amount to approximately $15,000 — and that’s with raising two kids,’ he said.

‘We try to be as self sufficient as possible, farming and harvesting all the food we eat.

‘We do get the occasional shopping delivery to the nearest road, but that’s only for a very select range of essential items,’ he said.

Most of their food comes from their own cows, chickens, and ducks, as well as a vegetable patch.

The garden grows all the traditional orchard fruits and produces a variety of nuts and vegetables, which they harvest on a weekly basis. 

They cook their meals on a wooden stove, use solar panels for electricity, and collect water from a well. 

The pair estimate that their lives cost just $15,000 a year to fund — a whopping $70,000 CAD less than the average four person household in their province.

‘I think the difference with our lifestyle is not so much what we do, but why we do it,’ Bryce said.

‘Of course we do have to acquire money, but the focus of our day is finding the most sustainable and fulfilling way to live.

‘Whereas most people are spending the majority of their time working to afford the necessities of life, we spend our time working to acquire these necessities directly.

‘Granted, it’s not a life for everyone, but it works for us and, as a family, we’ve never been happier.’

Read More

6

7

News

Article, Not exactly gloating, stockpiling ‘preppers’ have a moment

Bill Masen - March 13, 2022

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-8114115/Not-exactly-gloating-stockpiling-preppers-moment.html

TOLEDO, Ohio (AP) – Curt La Haise has put up with plenty of razzing from friends over the years who have called him paranoid for stockpiling an eight-month supply of food in his basement and having enough fuel to power his generator for almost an entire winter.

They’re not laughing anymore amid panic buying that has cleared store shelves across the U.S. and growing fears that the new coronavirus will force many Americans to self-quarantine for weeks in their homes.

“Now my friends are like, `What should I do, what should I get?´” said La Haise, who operates a firearms and safety training business near Sun Prairie, Wisconsin. “Prepping doesn´t look so bad now.”

For those in the often-mocked “prepper” community, this is quickly becoming their “I told you so” moment. But many are resisting saying that, even if it’s in the back of their minds. What they hope is that they’ll finally be taken seriously and that more people will follow their lead.

“We’re not laughing. We’re not saying,`I told you so,’ when people are out there fighting over toilet paper and hand sanitizers,” said Paul Buescher, of Northfield Center Township, Ohio.

Buescher is one of 32 members of a group in northeastern Ohio that shares a farm packed with enough canned and dehydrated food and water to last for years. He said he is now getting calls all day long asking for advice.

Survival supply stores can’t keep up with the demand for food kits and medical supplies.

“Every single business that has to do with emergency preparedness is overloaded,” said John Ramey, founder of a Colorado-based prepper website called The Prepared.

Most preppers say they are about self-reliance and common sense and are quick to distance themselves from the “doomsday preppers” who are depicted on television shows awaiting the day most of the world’s population is wiped off the map.

“The vast majority of this is beans and Band-Aids, not bullets and bunkers,” Ramey said.

Jim Cobb, a disaster readiness consultant and editor-in-chief of Prepper Survival Guide magazine, said he has seen a few fellow preppers gloating on social media about people who are crowding stores in search of disinfectants.

“I hate the thought of alienating any of them because they think were a bunch of elitist goofballs.” he said. “We’re trying to take advantage of the opportunity that for once they’re not laughing and pointing fingers at us.”

While most people who have tested positive for the virus experience only mild or moderate symptoms, there’s a greater danger and longer recovery period for older adults and people with existing health problems.

Experts say it’s most important to practice safe hygiene: Wash hands frequently, cover sneezes and coughs, and stay home if fever or other symptoms arise.

As for the preppers, they have their own recommendations for anyone who is unsure of what to do next:

– Be ready to stay at home for at least two weeks. Have plenty of food and water. Don’t forget about your pets and medicines. That includes over-the-counter products for fevers and coughs.

– Yes, toilet paper is important, but so are hand sanitizers, disinfectants, sanitation wipes, eye protection and gloves.

– Get your finances in order. Make sure you can pay your bills and have cash on hand.

– Maybe most important, relax and don´t panic. And pay attention to the news and what’s happening around you.

Read More

4

0

News

Millions in ‘zero-Covid’ China are in lockdown as virus cases TRIPLE

Bill Masen - March 13, 2022

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10607901/Millions-zero-Covid-China-lockdown-virus-cases-TRIPLE-surge-infections.html

Millions of people across China have been plunged into a lockdown on Sunday as cases of Covid-19 tripled after a surge in infections in the north east cause the worst outbreak the country has seen in two years. 

A total of 1,938 new cases of coronavirus have been reported by authorities in China on Sunday, which is three times the Saturday figures. 

Tighter controls have been put in place for those looking to access Shanghai, with services in the eastern port city, of over 24 million people, have been suspended after their cases rose by 15 to 432.

Anyone wanting to enter Shanghai requires a Covid-19 test to enter.  

The nationwide surge in cases has seen authorities close schools in Shanghai and lock down central neighbourhoods in the southern city of Shenzhen. 

Neighbouring mainland cities Jilin and Changchun, in the north east, contributed to around three quarters of the total, reporting 1,412 total cases.

Entry to Changchun, which neighbours Jilin city and is within the Chinese province of Jilin, has been suspended, with families also told to stay at home.  

Read More

2

0

News