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Food Price Warning. UK

Shoppers have been warned by experts that the price of bread will continue to rise at UK major supermarkets including Tesco, Aldi and Sainsbury’s.

The price of essential foods could also increase after wheat prices reached a nine-year high.

The cost of fuel and gas have already risen and it is likely the price of other amenities will be affected.

Why is the cost of bread rising?There is a high global demand for the staple wheat grain which is causing the price of bread to surge.

Bread prices have increased 26.7% over the past year.

Allied Bakeries, which owns Kingsmill, said the industry was “exposed to inflationary pressure in relation to the cost of flour, as well as the gas we use in our ovens and fuel for our delivery fleet.”

These factors are causing the cost of bread to increase.

Will other foods increase in price?Pasta prices have risen in recent weeks as food prices are globally at a 10 year high.

Wheat used for animal feeds has also increased in price, though not by as much as it is currently running at around 16.2% more than a year ago, trade journal The Grocer reported.

The soaring price of foods is due to rising fuel costs, the lorry driver shortage and higher wages to battle the recruitment crisis.

What’s been said?Gordon Polson, CEO of Britain’s Federation of Bakers, told The Grocer: “Energy pricing is also on the rise, while HGV driver shortages and recruitment are resulting in increased wage rates” causing food prices to rise.

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation reported a “recent surge in agricultural input prices” in a review of the global food market.

“Higher prices of these inputs will inevitably translate into higher production costs, and eventually into higher food prices,” The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation said.

Alice Jones, analyst with agricultural body AHDB, said: “Global wheat prices keep climbing each week on the back of supply concerns, and UK prices are following global trends.

“As long as global prices keep rising there is scope for domestic prices to keep rising.”

A version of this article originally appeared on NationalWorld.com

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US / Canada logistics problems just got worse

On top of the queues of ships lining many US and Canadian ports the floods along the US / Canadian border (around the SUMAS BC area). We now have massive disruption to the rail freight system.

Flooding has caused enough damage in the form of washed away tracks, overturned trains etc that this major line is going to be closed for weeks, thus compounding the already crippled supply chain.

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Video, communities can go 100% off grid even in the far north.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/science-environment-59238305

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Going Off-Road, money does not equate to common sense

A good example of ” All The Gear, But No Idea”   Big expensive truck based overland 4×4 expedition vehicle, and they chose to go cross country in the rainy season.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-59301237

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US inflation at 31 year high

U.S. inflation up 6.2% in October versus a year ago – the highest inflation since 1990. Inflation was up 0.9% in Oct. alone, a much higher increase than 0.4% in Sept. and 0.3% in August

These sort of figures cause preppers to look much closer at their supply and equipment levels, as well as their savings and investments.

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Screenshot 2021-11-10 at 15-06-27 US October Inflation Hits Highest Rate in 31 Years

Alaska facing record 12 feet of snow in 48 hours

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/alaskans-brace-for-a-record-12-feet-of-snow-in-two-days

For those of us who experience true bad winters at times, this freak of nature could be worth watching and learning from as one POSSIBLE consequence of climate change

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Austin,Texas DHS plan worth studying

https://www.governing.com/community/report-identifies-issues-in-austins-disaster-preparedness

Good morning, 

Austin, Texas developed a plan that addresses the deep freeze and lose of much infrastructure.

Austin’s DHS and a consultant (Why the need for a consulting firm ?!) made some recommendations well worth studying.

Note “no crew members … knew how to operate a gear switch”. Before a prepper buys anything, do think of the required support system: basic field expedient repairs (even if used at home and not in field), spare parts (consider the spares as “merely” a cost of the main gadget, eg generator, being purchased) and tools/lubercants/related.

Under section titled “Shelters”, note “staffing shortfalls and availability of volunteers”. I’m posting this link not to single out and focus on Austin, Texas … it’s about the same here for private citizens …

Note recommendation: “identity a list of medical shelters and general shelters with durable infrastructure”. 

All wheel drive emergency vehicles are far from being economical for year-round use. This specific subject is really a “it takes a village”.

Where do the Austin, Texas taxes go to ? Please be reminded by me this this link if from “governing.org” !

Does not * Hagerty Consulting* firm serve as a huge flare indicating the problem ?!

……

Would never have guessed roads could become useless without support.

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A British prepper supply store

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/gallery/meet-cornwalls-survivalist-prepping-nation-6093283

Good morning,

Above article is about a prepper store.

Article has link to this store named “Prepper Shop UK”, owned and managed by Lincoln Miles.

At the store link’s section titled “Urban Essentials”, I have a copy of the Field Manual “First Aid For Soldiers”. This FM is somewhat outdated.  The best book IMO featured is prepper medical care is Dr William Forgery, M.D.’s “The Prepper Medical Handbook”. Might still have a copy here. Of course, regardless of my opinion, Dr Forgery’s book is also somewhat outdated when focused to the current US medical scene.

I take due note that the Brit’s 50 cal ammo cans feature the newer HAZMAT label with number. This replaces the older “class C” label for small arms ammo (In US the 50 cal is still “small arms”).

I do recommend Lincoln Miles get some fire extinguishers for his inventories.

The prices appear to be real good.  

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Russia cuts gas to Europe and amasses military on western borders

Russia cuts gas to Europe and amasses military on western borders (msn.com)

Russia deploying large military forces to its western borders and has cut essential natural gas supplies to Europe.  Basically Putin holds all the aces and the knock on effects could be catastrophic for Europe this winter.

Russia cuts gas to Europe and amasses military on western borders (telegraph.co.uk)

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Middle Kingdom making itself a prepper nation

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59133027

Good afternoon,

This short article tells of China wanting families to stockpile some foods.

Of course some Chinese have always been preppers.

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UK media focusing on pan US shortages in stores

Please ignore anything political in the DM article and focus on the logistical issues.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10094485/Biden-ridiculed-online-EmptyShelvesJoe-frustrated-shoppers-complain-shortages.html

EG this sort of detail rather than the political sniping.

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Screenshot 2021-11-01 at 17-55-27 #EmptyShelvesJoe trending as concern mounts about Christmas shortages

Fear, scary movies, our evolution; values to a prepper

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/fear-can-be-fun-and-it-might-even-be-good-for-you

Good morning,

Had thought I posted this article several weeks ago.  Apparently not. Redundancy better than neglect.  Some forum member might need this info now.

Note:  “When the fear subsides, … pleasure”.

Note:  “stress hormones”.

Did not know about Oxytocin and hugging.

Note Dr Mendez’s “Risk takers … “.

Note:  “., short-term fear can have psychological benefits … to practice controlling”.

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Brit article on Brit preppers

[Edit of article link by Gideon:] https://todayuknews.com/uk-news/uk-preppers-always-ready-for-armageddon-dismissed-as-paranoid-then-covid-hit/

Good morning,

Per title, article tells of more acceptance of prepping after BREXIT.

Article mentions Mathias, West Virginia.  This place next to Virginia and just north of George Washington National Forest.  Since the forest is Federal land, it can be readily packed with Fed LEOs.  The mentioned 50 cal machine gun is something “frowned upon”.

Reminder to forum members of the American upstart colonies: “torch” means in American English “flashlight”.

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Massive Facebook, Instagram / internet outage

Its global  FB and many other mass user sites have been down since 5PM GMT, nearly 5 hours out of action.

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Current global problems could worsen because of diesel shortage in China

Some news agencies are taking an ever more closer interest in the economic problems in China, In some cities truckers are limited to 200 litres a time, but when you leave the cities people are waiting up to a week to refuel.  This is having a major impact in china being able to meet its export obligations and even driving up food prices as well.  The cost of fuel has doubled in some areas and one of the knock on effects is that Vegetables in some areas are now more expensive than meat.

https://www.wionews.com/world/due-to-fuel-shortages-china-rations-diesel-424700

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1237632.shtml

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59059093

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Fox news ” Twitter boss reports likelyhood of hyperinflation

Something to definately be monitoring fairly closely.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/twitter-ceo-jack-dorsey-hyperinflation-warning

Twitter founder Jack Dorsey has issued a cryptic warning that “hyperinflation” will “change everything.”

In typical Dorsey style, the social media CEO tweeted out his comment, saying that “it will happen in the US soon, and so the world.” 

 Hyperinflation is typically very high and accelerated inflation. Researchers have documented 57 cases of hyperinflation as of 2018, with the first recorded episode occurring between 1795 and 1796 in post-revolutionary France, according to The Economist.

Some economists and writers have looked at possible hyperinflation in the U.S. as early as March 2021 when the economy started to get back on track after an artificially depressed year due to lockdowns and immense restrictions during the coronavirus pandemic – policies that officials started reversing as vaccines became more available. 

The term raises some grim images, with Venezuela the most recent example and Zimbabwe perhaps one of the most famous examples of hyperinflation. 

“This is meme economics,” Bloomberg Businessweek wrote earlier this year. 

“Fear of inflation – if not outright hyperinflation – helps explain the meteoric rise of Bitcoin,” the article argued. “It’s behind distrust of the Fed. And it feeds congressional opposition to President Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic relief plan.”

Indeed, Republicans have warned of inflation since the start of the summer when gas prices first started to tick upward and prices followed shortly after: consumer prices rose 5% over the 12 months between June 2020 and June 2021, The Associated Press reported. 

This marked the largest one-year increase since 2008, and possibly the biggest since 1992 – excluding more volatile items such as food and energy. 

Rep. Jim Banks, R-Ind., said his constituents have “seen the higher prices on gas in particular, but also groceries and the cost to keep their businesses running.” Such voters, he said, “know, intuitively, that this is due to Democrats’ economic agenda and big spending plans.”

Prices have continued to trend upwards as an historic global shipping backlog delays the transport goods and services across the board, slowly driving up prices for everything from toilet paper to toys. 

Gas prices in some have hit around $4.00 a gallon, such as in California, Hawaii and Nevada, according to AAA. Premium in these states is almost at $5 a gallon. 

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Winter 2021/22 energy outlook – expect increased prices

Just received the EIA, Short-Term Energy OutlookOctober 13, 2021 Release 

We forecast that average U.S. household expenditures for all major home heating fuels will increase significantly this winter primarily because of higher expected fuel costs as well as more consumption of energy due to a colder winter. Average increases vary by fuel, region, and weather assumptions. Compared with last winter, we forecast propane expenditures will rise by 54%, heating oil by 43%, natural gas by 30%, and electricity by 6%. We expect space heating demand to generally be higher this winter based on forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that U.S. average heating degree days will be 3% higher than last winter. Altering our assumptions for a 10% colder-than-expected winter significantly increases forecast expenditures, while a 10% warmer-than-expected winter still results in increased expenditures, because of price increases.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

If the budget is tight, add a little padding for heat this winter. Maybe think about sealing up the windows (tape up some plastic sheeting), maybe add a lining to the curtains—walmart has small pieces of precut fabric or maybe you can find some cheap sheets. If you are ambitious check/repair/add weatherstripping to exterior doors. Change the filter in the furnace.

For the worse case, lay in some Goodwill coats and blankets, space blankets are awesome (but don’t tuck them in because they trap moisture) and know where the pup-tent is, you can always camp out in the living room.

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Survival experts debate if man is still alive in Florida’s Carlton Reserve after 3+ weeks

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/10/us/could-brian-laundrie-be-alive-survival-experts/index.html

Good afternoon,

Article is about a possible criminal matter involving someone hiding in a Florida wilderness to evade the authorities.

I’m posting this article for the wilderness statements some experts say.

Article mentions Urban Survival Academy and The Survival University.

Note article’s ” … when you don’t sleep you … making bad decisions, bad choices”.

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Article, Pacific NW disaster in the making

https://e360.yale.edu/features/on-the-klamath-dam-removal-may-come-too-late-to-save-the-salmon

A truly apocalyptic nightmare coming to pass.

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A BBC report on the vulnerability of the global supply chain

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-58743372

The BBC report on the Global Logistics Issues.

It help us realise just how totally vulnerable we are to the insanely delicate and vulnerable Global Supply Chain, and how we need to insulate ourselves by PREPPING.

And every single report I read from anyone anywhere reports its likely to get worse BEFORE it gets better, with many saying IF it gets better.

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That Augason Farms supply chain letter floating around social media is real, but their “shutdown” is just for wholesale distributors

Augason Farms is a popular purveyor of survival food. Recently, they’ve had a message on their website:

Due to an extremely high order volume through all sales channels we are currently not able to receive any orders through our web site. All orders previously placed will still be shipped. Augason Farms Products are still available through other national sales channels both on line and in-store and also through other reputable on-line vendors. We expect to turn this site back on just as soon as possible.

As a manufacturer we are intent on making sure our vendors inventory is top priority. Thank-you for choosing Augason Farms.

On social media, a letter has been circulating from Mark Augason saying that due to “global raw-material shortages,” they can’t fulfill orders and are suspending business for the next 90 days.

I contacted Augason Farms to find out if the letter is legitimate. It is. Here’s what they said:

Thank you for reaching out to us for clarification. This letter was to our wholesale customers that carry our products on their websites. We are still open for business and producing products. We have had an over whelming amount of orders that have come in and we have stopped taking our wholesale customers orders and orders on our own website so that we can get caught up. We are working around the clock to fulfill orders and to keep producing inventory. You can still find our products on Amazon.com, walmart.com and local Utah grocery stores.

In short, they’ve had overwhelming demand and supply chain shortages, so they are suspending wholesale and direct orders until they can get caught up.

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Augason-Letter

Lebanon, worth watching for lessons on urban survival

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-58856914

Lebanon has been left without electricity, plunging the country into darkness amid a severe economic crisis. A government official told Reuters news agency the country’s two largest power stations, Deir Ammar and Zahrani, had shut down because of a fuel shortage.The power grid “completely stopped working at noon today” and was unlikely to restart for several days, they said.For the past 18 months Lebanon has endured an economic crisis and extreme fuel shortages.That crisis has left half its population in poverty, crippled its currency and sparked major demonstrations against politicians.A lack of foreign currency meanwhile has made it hard to pay overseas energy suppliers.

In a statement, Lebanon’s state electricity company also confirmed the shutdown of the two power plants, which together provide some 40% of the country’s electricity.Their closure led to the “complete outage” of the power network, the statement reportedly said, “with no possibility of resuming operations in the meantime”.Al Jazeera reports protests in the northern town of Halba, outside the offices of the state power company, as well as residents blocking roads with burning tyres in the city of Tripoli.The country is also grappling with the aftermath of the Beirut blast in August 2020, which killed 219 people and injured 7,000 others.After the explosion its government resigned, leaving political paralysis. Najib Mikati became prime minister in September, more than a year after the previous administration quit.Last month the militant group Hezbollah brought Iranian fuel into the country to ease shortages. Its opponents say the group is using the fuel delivery to expand its influence.

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N95 could help reduce hospitalisation from wildfire smoke

another good reason to keep N95s to hand

https://www.foxnews.com/science/n95-respirators-could-reduce-hospitalizations-from-wildfire-smoke-study

The masks offer a ‘promising means’ to reduce inhalation of particulate air pollution

N95 respirators could offer robust protection from wildfire smoke, researchers say.

According to an August study in the AGU journal GeoHealth, the regulatory standard masks offer a “promising means” to reduce the inhalation of particulate air pollution and reduce the risk of negative health effects. 

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Austere First Aid video course trailer + 50% off preorders are live

Excited to share that we’ve just released the trailer and preorders for the Austere First Aid online video course we’ve been working on the last few months!

Check it out and preorder for only $59. Similar in-person courses cost $300-500 and take 5-7 days. Includes 90+ lessons, 7+ hours of video, downloadable references, and lifetime access with free future versions.

It’s the only online course of its kind, and there just aren’t many classes anywhere that teach you how to handle medical emergencies when you can’t depend on professional help to save you. 

Is this something you’re interested in? 

Full course will launch later this summer.

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AFA trailer thumb