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COVID Projections – what is going on in Sweden?

So it seems to me that the two most important things to understand when considering my prepping/general actions over the next 6 months are:

1. What is the rate and severity of long-term COVID complications across the age/comorbidity spectrum

2. What path is the virus likely to take in the fall

I’m going to avoid #1 for now because I have yet to find many good sources to contribute to the discussion. For #2 I’ve been thinking about Sweden (and to a lesser extent, New York) lately.

Both Sweden and New York saw very steep growth and very high mortality. Sweden is 5th in the world at 556 deaths per million, and New York is around 790 deaths per million. If I am doing my math right, NYC is nearly 2800 deaths per million.

Sweden: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/
New York/NYC: https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases

Both Sweden and New York have deaths that dropped off fairly precipitously and have remained low. Sweden’s case counts have bounced around a bit before returning to low levels, while NY has remained low for quite some time.

These cases have been in my mind recently as I have started to see more mainstream articles around cross-immunity and heterogenity driving herd immunity.

Here’s the Atlantic on heterogenity (most susceptible get it first): https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/

And Vox on the different components of Morbidity (linking to numerous other places):
https://www.vox.com/2020/7/22/21324729/getting-covid-19-twice-immunity-antibodies-vaccine-herd-immunity

(sidenote: do we have access to html [url = ][/url] and that sort of thing? That and a preview button would be nice)

Those theories represent a possible explanation for both Sweden and New York’s drop. One problem is that Sweden sero studies have returned prevalence roughly half that of New York – ~10% vs ~20-25%. Sweden is a fairly obese country from what I can tell, so I’m not sure population health covers it either. And obviously Sweden has been hit much harder than its Nordic neighbors.

So I guess my main questions are:
1. Do you think there is anything to Herd Immunity coming at a much lower threshold?
2. Is there another explanation for Sweden’s drop? I have not found good sources for what is happening on the ground regarding voluntary social distancing, mask wearing, closing of indoor dining/bars. Google mobility data seems to indicate movement is back to normal levels?
3. If New York or Sweden are indeed at some high proportion of herd immunity, should that change anything I plan for/do? I think if they are it should not impact me decisions too much in the short term – NYC/Lombardy/Wuhan still got very very bad. It might influence my more long-term decisions on how best to allocate prepping resources though.

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!

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GMRS vs Ham

I am a licensed GMRS operator and studying for my HAM Technician license. Would like everyones input on the GMRS and ham 

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HAM: Just got my tech license. Which radio to buy?

Just got my license, looking to see what transciever to buy.  I’m a buy-once-cry-once type, and I’m not likely to set up a shack with multiple radios, antennas, etc.  One and done.  Thinking ICOM IC7300 (alternative: YAESU FT-450D) with a HUSTLER 6-BTV, ground mounted.  Yes? No?  

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Looking for a heavy duty folder knife

I am looking for a heavy duty folder to use as a field knife in place of a fixed blade knife. What do you recommend? In case you are wondering “why not a fixed blade knife?” I live in California where keeping a fixed balde knife ‘concealed’ in a backpack is a misdomeanor and can be a felony depending on the whim of the prosecutor.

Perhaps this could be an item for The Prepared to do a review on?

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Toilet when there’s no water?

Here’s something I’ve been wondering about for a while when thinking about prepping. What happens in a scenario where we lose water at home as far as toileting needs are concerned?

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What documents to carry in your go bags?

I’m wondering what documents folks are putting in their BOB and Get Home bags. Here are my thoughts of what I’ve seen so far. Starting from a list I found in the BOB section of this website, with my comments:

A list of important people and their contact/location information — check

Birth certificate — my birth certificate is in Russian, so I doubt it would be useful

SSN card — really? We should carry our original SSN card? What if it gets lost?

Passport — I carry an expired one, so my current one is available for other things. Is that okay?

State ID — check: it’s always in my wallet.

List of financial accounts and credit card numbers — don’t forget the expiration and CVV codes as well as the phone numbers for your providers — Really? Is it a good idea to carry all your account numbers with you? What if someone sees them or steals them?

Titles/deeds — what kinds of titles or deeds?

Anything proving parental relationships, especially if adopted or different last names — not really applicable to me.

Pictures of important people, both for morale and to give to others for recovery/reconnection — are we talking about people we live with, or important people in general?

Health, homeowners, auto, life, and other major insurance policy numbers and phone numbers — check

Important medical history, medication (with dosage), and allergies
Living will or Do Not Resuscitate instructions — check

…..

Are there other kinds of information? What about pet-related info?

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Broadcastify – listen to police and emergency scanners

A seperate thread about emergency notifications reminded me how useful Broadcastify.com can be.  For those unfamiliar, it’s a website that streams police and emergency scanners.  It doesn’t always work great, but I often tune in when I hear sirens in my neighborhood.  I doubt it’s as good or reliable as an actual police scanner, but it’s free and can be accessed with a smartphone.  It’s an information source that is worth bookmarking…

https://www.broadcastify.com/

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How will you get notified?

How will you get notified when something happens in your area? How will you stay tuned to updates?

I’m currently signed up for my county alert system, so I hope I’ll get a text if something is going down, but I’m not sure I will hear it if I’m asleep.

I’m also realizing a neighborhood or street text group may be super helpful.

Based on the helpful social media thread recently I’m collecting a list of social media accounts in a notes doc on my phone I can check if something is going down.

How will you a) hear about local emergencies and b) stay tuned to updates?

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Firearms storage for BOBs

I’m curious how people are balancing safety vs quick access for firearms intended for a BOB (in The Prepared’s layout, this would be a level 2 bag item). We’ve decided to go with compact handguns for our L2 bags, though I suspect the answers would mostly be similar if people are using a compact long gun or large format pistol like a PC Charger or AR-7 or 10/22 Takedown.

A non-exhaustive list of variables to consider:

Gun location: In the safe? Dedicated quick access box (e.g. GunVault) near the bag? In the bag? Somewhere else? Presumably always holstered, whether loaded or not. Status: Loaded? Unloaded? Loaded but with an empty chamber? Magazines: In the bag? If not in the bag, located where the gun is? Loaded? Unloaded w/ a box of ammo? Ammo in a vacuum bag with a dessicant?

Some concerns:

Time taken to head out the door Risk of theft Risk of unsafe access by the untrained Maintenance burden (e.g. cycling out ammo, magazines, etc)

While we don’t have children and the corresponding safety concerns to contend with, others surely will, so it’d be interesting to hear suggestions for both scenarios.

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Ready for Our First Bug Out

We’re in the middle of hard-hit Clackamas County in Oregon, which is entirely under wildfire evacuation alert.  We’re in a Level 1 area but Levels 2 and 3 are closing in rapidly!  We’ve lived in this area 47 years and never has there been such a threat in that time!  So, uh, no, we didn’t truly have a plan.

But we’ve had enough warning to gather up all our cool camping gear and all the necessaries for ourselves, two horses, a dog and a neurotic cat.  We’ll head to a friend’s farm.  Making mental notes of what we coulda-shoulda-woulda and what we’ve done that’s repeatable. Regardless of the outcome, the truck and horse trailer will stay packed as is until the crisis is over.  Fortunately, the old truck is so rarely used anyway, we have to keep it on a trickle charger! 

Anyway, all the good stuff I’ve learned here and elsewhere is spinning around in my brain and this is a great shakedown, if it had to take place at all.  Some folks have been awakened in the middle of the night and told to leave NOW!

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Seatbelt customized for pregnant women

Found this on Reddit and thought it was a great example of a piece of equipment being modified to suit different body types. 

Is this something new or have these been around for a while and I happened to miss it?

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A water-filled dam you can deploy yourself to stop flooding

I’ve seen images like this in a lot of prepper groups:

And it got me looking around for products that might do something similar. I’d seen an inflatable version before, but I found this American-made water-filled alternative called the Aqua Dam and wanted to share. Thought it was pretty smart and potentially effective at minimizing the impact of flooding.

I’ve got nothing to go on beyond the video though. What do you think?

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house

New Fictional Book – “Total Power”

I’ve been a fan of the Vince Flynn series with Mitch Rapp. Vince pasted away in 2013 but the series continues under the impressive Kyle Mills. The newest novel is about a total power grid take down.  (https://www.vinceflynn.com/mitch-rapp-19) … I thought folks of this site might find it interesting given the gravity of the U.S.A. power grid being offline for more than 1 year. It has started to get my wheels turning.  

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Best safety Goggles for Covid?

I’m a teacher and my district is about to move from virtual to in-person learning. My school was renovated several years ago and the new windows don’t open (though I’m glad to have windows). I’ll be wearing a mask but I’m wondering if anyone has advice on wearing goggles/safety glasses as additional protection.

I own Pyramex I-Force safety goggles that I use when out in the yard mowing etc but I’d like some that are, if not more feminine, at least less “goggly.” Then again, I’d rather wear goggles than get Covid. 

Are safety glasses with side shields worth it if there isn’t an actual seal around your eyes? If so, what type safety glasses would you recommend? 

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Preparation resources for Asian Americans?

Has anyone in this wonderful community come across and recommend any preparation resources that address preparation challenges for Asian Americans (and other People of Color)?

Being based in Portland (Oregon) in midst of the wildfire smoke crisis–and reading confirmed reports of armed vigilantes setting up illegal checkpoints in nearby rural towns–has made me acutely realize that being a person of color can be dangerous when traveling through the countryside during emergency evacuations. I’m beginning to realize that my evacuation strategies may have unique challenges, and that I’ll need to adjust accordingly.

I haven’t been able to find much on the topic–searching for “Asian preppers” returned links to articles about working in an Asian restaurant kitchen, or SAT preparation strategies, but nothing related to emergency preparedness.

By the way, I do appreciate The Prepared’s site and forums for being very inclusive and welcoming. And the site contents have motivated me to start assembling a BOB.

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More than one cell phone?

I recently replaced a cell phone without ending service yet on the clunky predecessor. Then I wondered if maybe I should have two working cell phones (different phone numbers) in case I lose one or in case the cell phone service providers’ equipment is on different towers. If one tower (or equipment) failed, there would be a back up. (I also have basic radios as a back up.) If money were not a limitation, would you have more than one working cell phone? Thanks!

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Testing HF Ham Radio Propagation with WSPR

When you first set up an HF transceiver, your biggest concern is if anyone can hear you. There is a neat digital mode called WSPR, created by Joe Taylor, who holds a Nobel Prize in physics. To use this, you need a way to connect your radio to a computer so you can use the WSJT-X client, which can do several digital modes including WSPR.

Once you’ve set it up, it pretty much runs on its own. WSPR sends out a small digital signal. Other WSPR clients can receive that signal and report it on the Internet.

Now here’s what’s cool: you can visit an online map like the one at WSPRnet and see WSPR signal propagation around the world. Each station is pinned with its callsign, so you can see just how far your signal reaches. I learned that my little 20-watt Xiegu G90 can reach all the way to Antarctica and New Zealand from my home in Middle Tennessee.

You can filter the map by the band, time sent, and callsign, so you can test out different things and compare.

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Screen Shot 2020-09-18 at 9.15.23 AM

Made in the US vacuum sealer?

We are looking for a vaccum sealer, but are dead set on not buying from China.  This is challenging right now, but we will not compromise.  Can anyone point us toward a vacuum sealer that will likely see moderate use that is Made in the US?

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iFixit makes world’s largest medical repair database for free

I’m not super familiar with iFixit but thought this was cool. They organized 200 volunteers and gathered 13,000 different repair manuals for equipment that hospitals use, then made it available for free online:

https://www.ifixit.com/News/41440/introducing-the-worlds-largest-medical-repair-database-free-for-everyone

Although these aren’t the most important documents you’d want to have saved for a knowledge library, if you’ve already got the basics covered this could be interesting to add to your collection. Super unlikely, but how cool would it be to be able to fix a ventilator or something in a SHTF environment!

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12 volt charging from Jackery 240 or other ones

Hello.

Have a new dc/dc 20 amp battery charger. Would like to connect it to my starter motor battery at the input of the charger then have the output go to a cigarette lighter socket, which will charge a jackery 240 portable power station. Will also use a 12 volt wire at D+ to sense ign on.

Is this a feasible use of this Renogy 20 amp charger?

Thank you , Rudy

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Which microorganisms does hand sanitizer work on?

I’ve gotten so used to using sanitizer at this point that I was kinda surprised to learn that it’s effective on a bunch of stuff.

The image below is from Popular Science and lists very clearly which bugs hand sanitizer kills and which it doesn’t. Thought it was kinda cool.

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sanitizer

Sleeping bag

Hi all,

I looked for a review on this topic and didn’t see it. Does anyone have any suggestions for a compact and lightweight sleeping bag (emphasis on the former)? I’d like it to be rated to 15 or 20 degrees Fahrenheit. 45 degrees wouldn’t be warm enough, but I understand that there’s going to be a tradeoff for a compact bag

Thanks in advance.

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Possible food/supply shortages…

What types of food/supply shortages/interruptions are you seeing in your area?

I live in New England. We had a few good weeks where everything seemed close to normal around here in terms of supplies and food availability at the stores. Delivery and curbside slots are now easily available too.

But today I went to pick up my grocery order and half of what I ordered wasn’t there. For example, I ordered 2 jars of pasta sauce and got only 1, I was only able to get one apple (who wants to buy a single apple?), and a bunch of items had strangely low restrictions on things like baby food jars (2 max) and yogurt pouches (2 max). It was like shopping in mid April all over again. Last week my grocery store had no strawberries whatsoever, which is bizarre for midsummer.

We are doing well in our region in terms of controlling covid transmission and re-opening businesses, so the low inventory is unlikely due to panic shopping…

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School Ventilation

I don’t really know if this is totally appropriate for this forum, but I’ve been getting a ton of questions about school ventilation and filtration systems. So I made a video that outlines these systems Hopefully this helps parents and school staff work to verify the function of these systems in their school districts. Feel free to post any questions specific to this issue. If there’s even slight interest I’d like to do some stuff shortly on measured flow and filtration with simple devices you can readily install in your kid’s classroom. 

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Helmets anyone?

Hi, all. I hope you’re all doing well.

I’m just starting the process of researching helmets, but want to know if anyone else is already ahead of the game in this department. Specifically, I’m looking into NIJ-level helmets (see body armor). I am, of course, thinking in terms of a SHTF scenario, not so much paintballs and protests.

What manufacturers, distributors, or other information have you found in the way of civilian-accessible helmets?

Thanks in advance.

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