COVID_Actuary - Member - The Prepared

Reply to: COVID Projections – what is going on in Sweden? Posted September 24, 2020

Just figured this is worth a bump – as we try to predict what’s next going into the fall season the question of whether hard hit areas such as NYC are going to be hit hard again seems very important, especially given the secondary effects of that occuring (schools closing again, potentially a new wave of lockdowns with more unrest, and so on). It seems like Sweden has continued to do very well recently, even as some other European countries have seen cases begin to increase (including the other nordics). This case spike has not yet translated into deaths and may not translate too much into deaths – it seems to be concentrated in a younger population.

Reply to: Non-respirator masks Posted July 23, 2020

Stupid question – how are aerosol’s generated? Does a sneeze/cough just generate droplets, not aerosols? Is it just like intubation and flushing toilets that aerosolize particles?

COVID Projections – what is going on in Sweden?

News 7

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Posted July 23, 2020

Non-respirator masks

AdviceGear 9

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Posted July 1, 2020

Reply to: Thinking about school in the fall Posted July 1, 2020

I think my questions would be roughly: 1. How worried should I be about my child with regards to COVID? As I said, from the numbers I’ve crunched, it seems to be even better than #justtheflu for school-age children (with some potential commodities, primarily obesity) 2. What’s the current state of the research around cross-immunity? If colds do provide cross-immunity, it seems like there could be benefits to having your child around others 3. What are the dangers of keeping them out of school, educationally and socially (assuming physical isolation – not just homeschooling with seeing friends on the side, which I imagine would be largely fine). I’m sure there’s others, but that’s what I’m thinking about mostly.

Reply to: Thinking about school in the fall Posted July 1, 2020

Do you have thoughts about what ages distance learning is appropriate for? My intuition is that below middle school it’s going to be functionally worthless for ~90% of kids, and that even in middle and high school it is a substantial downgrade over in-person, both for purposes of education and socialization. Did it work well for your 5th grader this spring? My thoughts are definitely not super informed on this (I’ve seen some graphs about falling math proficiency but haven’t researched extensively) so curious to hear your thoughts.

Thinking about school in the fall

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Posted June 30, 2020

Reply to: COVID Truthers List – Lyman Stone? Posted June 27, 2020

It looks like I can still reply even though this is closed – apologies if that is frowned upon. I think (based on following his twitter for a few months) that what he meant by “over by August” is that either: 1. We would be following in the footsteps of other countries that have handled it (New Zealand, Vietnam, Hong Kong) and hit upon the steps needed to resume mostly normal life (with him advocating for masks and quarantine). OR 2. We would have given up entirely and moved on to worrying about other things (which seems a lot less implausible to me than it did a few months ago…) and settled in for a big burn I think he is going to end up being wrong – schools around these parts are already talking about alternating days and other mitigation measures, but the thought behind it seemed somewhat legitimate. As a sidenote, @Polimath has been a really interesting twitter follow as someone who is diving into the data and trying to understand what is going on in different places. I can see where you are coming from here: https://mobile.twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1276927181533388800 But I also think his point is somewhat legitimate – we know a LOT more now than we did in March, and are baseline testing capacity is much higher. To your point, if we just squander all those advantages it doesn’t matter anyway, and a high rate of baseline spread is going to be worse regardless. Anyway, that’s enough of me trying to police how you do twitter for a day. Love what you guys are doing here 🙂

Reply to: COVID Truthers List – Lyman Stone? Posted June 27, 2020

Oh hey didn’t even think about just responding to the article itself…long year 🙂

Reply to: Preps with a newborn Posted June 25, 2020

baby wipes. Lots of baby wipes – our subscribe and save was out of stock one month – thankfully I’d bought extra in anticipation. Obviously there’s a lot of general baby items (teethers, slings, clothes, etc), but as far as other consumables, I would say: Children’s Tylenol (and syringes) Simethicone Gas drops (YMMV on these – can be a lifesaver with a colic-y baby) Saline Nose Drops Dreft Baby Detergent Baby Lotions and shampoos (sensitive-skin friendly ones) Perhaps some baby food purees to start introducing solids. I’ll edit if I think of any others that have been helpful!