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A clothing puzzle – Looking for advice for sensitive skin
Estel - November 27, 2021 I am new to prepping and am trying to work out what clothing I would want for a good go bag. I have an unusual constraint: I have sensitive skin and can’t wear wool (even merino) or most synthetics against my skin. They aggravate my serious eczema. I rely heavily on cotton clothing in daily life but linen, hemp, silk, and (I think) rayon/bamboo are also okay against my skin.
Obviously cotton is not recommended as a base layer for emergency scenarios. Given my constraints, is silk my best option? Is there a meaningful difference between cotton and linen or hemp here? I normally think of them as similar since they’re all cellulose-based fibres.
A bit of context: I live in an urban area in the Pacific Northwest.
Read MoreVehicle choice for a winter trip
Pops - November 22, 2021 I thought this might be a fun argument… not really “greatest bug out vehicle” more like “Which to Grab.” But it could be extrapolated to a emergency bug out.
We’re traveling round trip from the Ozarks to the Dakotas next week (mid-America to Northern plains), about 12 hrs each way. We usually just rent something like a 4Runner or Cherokee but that’s out of the question nowadays, over $1k for 4 days.
Weather is potentially light to medium snow, blizzard unlikely but cool, low teens to single digits. Just a couple of suitcases and the dog and normal winter stuff, shovel, tow chains, etc. We’re fairly hardy mid-60s.
Question is, which vehicle?
1999 HD diesel pickup, 4×4, pretty good mud/snow tires + chains, very heavy; 7k dry, fair mileage, big fuel tank, rides like a truck. Manual everything makes it fairly rugged and it’s been reliable to now. Though it has been maintained OK, it is somewhat long in the tooth at 20+ years and 175k miles
Or a 2018 sedan, low miles, electronic traction etc, good mileage. Only 3-4″ ground clearance but new all weather tires and one set cable chains. Not high line but more comfortable and likely more reliable, if more fragile.
Which do you take?
Read MoreBook Review: “The Black Swan”, by Nassim Taleb
brownfox-ffContributor - November 15, 2021 (image credit: “Black swan” by Emiliana Borruto is licensed under Creative Commons – CC BY 2.0 )
In “The Black Swan”, Nassim Taleb discusses probability and the impact of unlikely but extreme events. He argues that we have a hard time understanding impacts and probabilities that are very large or very small. That what we do not know can be much more meaningful than anything we do know. Taleb argues that most of the course of human history has been dominated by extreme, unexpected, improbable events. And that human society will become more so in the future.
Taleb argues that we would benefit from improving how we think about unlikely, impactful events, and offers several tips for doing this. In this review I will outline the book itself, and then collect and present a summary of tips.
### What is a Black Swan?
A Black Swan event has three properties:
Unexpected. Nobody saw it coming. Impactful. Causes a big change. Explained after the fact. We look back and invent an explanation for it, even though we didn’t know it would happen.Taleb lists the Internet, the laser, and the start of World War One as examples of Black Swan events. Black Swans can be either negative (like a sudden war) or positive (like discovering a new drug or invention – like penicillin).
Throughout his book, Taleb argues that history moves in large leaps and bounds, not small steps. Most of the big changes in human history come from Black Swans.
Taleb believes we should work to make our lives and society more robust to Black Swans. Understand them better. Become less surprised by them. And be more ready, so we aren’t as impacted. “The surprising part is not our bad errors, or even how bad they are, but that we are not aware of them”.
### Mediocristan and Extremistan
Taleb distinguishes between two types of random probability and events – “mild” randomness with slight variations vs “wild” randomness with extremely impactful events. He calls these “Mediocristan” and “Extremistan”.
In Mediocristan – all of the events and data are about average. No single event or person greatly changes the total.
Imagine gathering 1,000 people into a stadium, and comparing their weight. Even if you have one person with a very small weight (perhaps a baby) or a very large weight (the heaviest possible human) – they will not make up much of the total weight in the entire stadium. Examples of data or events in Mediocristan: height, weight, calorie consumption, income for a baker; gambling profits in a casino; car accidents, mortality rates.In Extremistan you have a collection of “dwarfs” and “giants”. Some data points or events can be very small, and others hugely, massively out of scale, taking up most of the data.
Imagine gathering 1,000 people into a stadium, and comparing their net worth. The numbers could vary much more than weight. If you happen to get Bill Gates in the stadium, he becomes worth 99.99% of the total data. None of the rest really matters. You would never see a human who weighed several thousand tons. Examples of data or events in Extremistan: wealth; income; book sales per author; name recognition as a “celebrity”; number of hits in Google; populations of cities; numbers of speakers per language; damage caused by earthquakes; deaths in a war; sizes of planets; sizes of companies; stock ownership; commodity prices; inflation rates; economic data.One of Taleb’s central points is: mathematical models based on the Bell Curve can help a lot when explaining events or data in Mediocristan. But they do not work at all when dealing with complicated events or data in Extremistan.
Mediocristan usually involves ‘biological’ data – physical measurements, or things present in the real world, where physical limits prevent them from getting out of hand. In Extremistan, we can never be sure of the data. Because one single person, point, or observation could suddenly dwarf the rest (imagine: measuring the net worth of everyone else, and then suddenly discovering Bill Gates). One measurement could suddenly invalidate all of our previous conclusions. So we need to proceed much more cautiously.When measuring events or taking action in Extremistan, it is often the cumulative impact that is important. It doesn’t only matter if you were right or wrong; it matters *how* correct or incorrect you are. Being “right” about a danger causing one death, vs being “wrong” about a danger that causes 10 million deaths are quite different. We tend to “focus on the grass and miss the trees”.
The goal is to “be less surprised”, or “avoid being a sucker” about crazy, wild events that impact us.
### Part 1: Where and Why Brains Fail
Human brains are just not great at understanding some parts of the world. Especially risk and probability with very large or very small numbers.
Internal brain problems:
1) Narrative bias: Human brains love to invent and create stories, even and especially when no story or pattern exists. We do this unconsciously all of the time It takes mental effort to *not* create a story, or to *not* form an opinion Thus, humans can look at any set of totally unrelated data and *invent* a story about them. We think this helps us to understand the world better, but we are often wrong.See “Thinking Fast and Slow”, by Daniel Kahneman.We have a “System 1” part of our brain – fast, intuitive, emotional, “gut feeling”.We have a “System 2” part of our brain – slower, more logical, critical thinking.It takes active effort and energy to do System 2 thinking. So it is harder.
2) Confirmation bias: We cherry-pick examples and data that support our story, and ignore evidence that goes against it. We also do this when predicting the future – we ignore times when we were wrong and only count the times we were right. It may only take one counter-example to prove an assumption is incorrect, so it may be faster and easier to disprove an idea.Other thinking problems:
3) Silent evidence, a.k.a. Survivorship bias. It’s hard to keep in mind all of the data that we *don’t* see. For any problem or group of people, there may be a much larger group that we don’t know about, and don’t have evidence for. For example: There was an ancient civilization called the Phoenecians. They wrote on papyrus, which does not last long. Their papyrus writings rotted and decayed. So we didn’t have a record of much of their writing. It was easy to assume they did not write at all. Until we discovered their writing on other materials. For every person that “prayed to be saved” and survived, there are many that prayed but died. Only the people who made it are able to tell their stories. In World War II, the US military was trying to figure out how to protect more planes from getting shot down. They initially wanted to add armor to the locations with the most bullet holes. But Abraham Wald figured out: every place with a bullet hole was a location where the plane could sustain a hit, *and still survive*. He advocated the opposite – adding armor to the locations with *no* bullet holes. Because no planes that were shot in those locations made it back.[ Image: Bullet hole damage in WWII airplanes. Add armor to where there are *no* bullet holes, to increase survivability. Image By Martin Grandjean (vector), McGeddon (picture), Cameron Moll (concept) – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0 ]
Ignoring “silent evidence” causes us to massively underestimate or mis-understand the real situation and real risk or probability, because we don’t know the whole story.We have to continually be careful to not assume we really understand how the world works, and make dangerous assumptions.
4) The Ludic Fallacy: We may think we understand the world, but often we don’t. Real life is messier, stranger, and more complicated than we learn in the classroom or in constrained environments. You have to be open to crazy wild events that are “against the rules”. e.g. someone pulling a gun in a martial arts tournament. This is high-level “thinking outside the box” Taleb calls it “a-Platonic” thinking – not trying to stuff reality into tidy-but-incorrect categories Thinking we understand reality when we do not is what causes many Black Swan events, and is dangerous.An example of the world being more complex than we think: A casino has a reputation for being a place of gambling and chance. But casinos actually have very strict controls on the size of bets you can place, the possible payouts, watching for people cheating, etc. It is a controlled environment. The casino will never pay out 100 billion times your bet, or change the rules of the game mid-game. But real life might do something similar.
By contrast – One casino’s biggest risks and losses came from sources entirely outside of the expected:
A tiger attacked their star performer (Roy Horn of Seigfried & Roy). They were not insured for such an event, as they did not consider it a possibility. This ended their profitable best act. A disgruntled worker tried to dynamite the building. An employee had not been submitting the correct IRS tax forms, for multiple years. They simply put them into a drawer under their desk. The casino had to pay large amounts of penalties and back fees for not filing its taxes. It risked losing its license entirely and going out of business. A kidnapping attempt against the business owner’s daughter.None of these risks or events were inside the casino’s business model or model of risk. They were entirely “outside the box”, and unexpected. Their cost was far greater than any on-model or expected risks or costs.
### Part 2: We Can’t Predict
Taleb spends several chapters showing how humans are bad at predicting. We can’t know the future and everybody gets it wrong.
We fall victim to tunnel vision – ignoring possibilities outside of what we think will happen. We overestimate what we know, and underestimate uncertainty. The more information you give someone, the more they try to interpret, and the more hypotheses they will form along the way. We see random noise and mistake it for information. Our ideas are “sticky” – once we form a theory, we are not likely to change our minds. So delaying developing your theories makes you better off Developing an opinion based on weak evidence makes it more difficult to change “Reading a summary magazine once a week is better for you than listening to the news every hour”. The longer interval lets you filter the info a bit. Small errors in measurement or a model can lead to drastically different outcomes It doesn’t matter how often you are right; what’s important is your cumulative error number E.g. one big event can throw you way off Or missing one prediction [ Image: Stock Market total returns over 50 years. Including and excluding the Best 10 days. Note that excluding these 10 days (the lower, darker line) cuts the total value of the stock market as a whole in half. Traditional economic models treat these types of jumps as too extreme to ever happen. Yet here they have obviously happened several times. Image copyright Taleb; used only for review purposes. ]One example – for the entire stock market, over a period of 50 years – fully half of the total value of all stocks was created during only ten days. Out of a period of 50 years. Using current economics models and claims, these types of events should be nearly impossible. Yet here they are. Taleb uses this as an example disproving the claim of Bell Curve economic models and disproving economists’ ability to predict.
Taleb discusses “Retrospective Distortion”: History seems more clear and organized when we look back than it actually was for people going through it at the time.
### Part 3 and 4 – Technical Details
Parts 3 and 4 delve into technical details on how exactly many so-called “experts” are wrong, and advice on how to minimize damage from Black Swans.
Taleb argues that the world is moving more into Extremistan over time. As technology and society become more complex, it is even more difficult to predict. The world is more complicated than many so-called “experts” and economists believe or tell you. The Bell Curve doesn’t actually work for most models; it can only be used to predict normal, boring events and data in Mediocristan. For any events in Extremistan – that includes most societal, cultural, and world events or data – the Bell Curve is a lie and *does not work at all*. This is a central point that Taleb emphasizes repeatedly.By assuming the world is more complex than we realize by default, we can improve some events – “Turn Black Swans into Grey”. We are less surprised if we remain open to wild, impactful, unexpected events.
### What To Do About It
There are many interesting perspectives and advice that can be taken from the book. The most relevant areas are Chapter 13, “What to do if you cannot predict”; and Appendix 6 and 7 on The Fourth Quadrant – how to think about different types of risk, and mitigate them.
1. Look for counter-examples to check if you’re wrong
Because of confirmation bias, and because events in Extremistan can appear to be stable and normal for long periods, it is easy to find examples that reinforce any claim. That doesn’t mean we are right. If you have lunch with someone for an hour, and they don’t murder anyone for the entire hour, that doesn’t guarantee they are not a murderer.
It is faster and more effective to look for counter-examples that prove we are *wrong*. Ask “if this were not true, what would that look like?”.
2. Ask “Where did I get lucky?”
Examine past events. When you prepare a retrospective or After Action Report, ask “where did I get lucky?”. What events just happened to go well? From that list, what could you improve for next time, to improve your odds?
You see this in post mortems from organizations like the Google Site Reliability Engineering (SRE) team. They ask: “What went well? What needs to be improved? And where did we get lucky?”.
By considering events where we got lucky but it could have been worse, we can improve our robustness and preparations for next time.
3. Consider the consequences, or outcomes, and prepare for those
> “I don’t know the odds of an earthquake, but I can imagine how San Francisco (or any other place) might be affected by one”
The odds of some event may be unknowable, and no amount of modeling could figure it out. But I can guess pretty well how an earthquake or other event might *affect* me and my surroundings. And I can take steps to prepare for *that*.
If you lose power or water to your home, you don’t care as much about what caused it. You care more about how you can deal with it, and prevent it or make it easier.
Taleb’s advice is to focus on the *consequences* of some outcomes, and take steps to be ready for them. If we prepare for e.g. an earthquake, epidemic, financial crash, or other event, then it doesn’t matter so much about the odds of it happening; we can be ready regardless. “Rank beliefs by the harm they might cause”. “Invest in preparedness, not prediction”.
This matches advice from security expert Bruce Schneier, who advocates investing in intelligence gathering and emergency response:
> “Large-scale terrorist attacks and natural disasters differ in cause, but they’re very similar in aftermath.”
> The problem is that we can’t guess correctly. “Fund security that doesn’t rely on guessing”.
This leads to advice like:
Keep an emergency fund, to help you deal with outcomes, whatever they are. Buy insurance to cover and mitigate your losses for bad outcomes.4. Cover your basics; keep an open mind
We can’t know what the future holds. But if you allow for the possibility of unexpected, impactful events, you won’t be as surprised if or when they happen. By keeping an open mind about the possibility, you’re already better prepared. By covering our basics; accepting that we might be wrong; and having flexible preparations; we can adapt to events as needed.
5. Beware people selling you a solution
>“Avoid taking advice from someone unless they have a penalty for bad advice”.
Human brains have a harder time with ‘negative’ advice about what *not* to do. It is easier for us to look for or invent a solution. This is exploited by many frauds and scams – trying to sell you a solution that won’t actually work. Choosing to do nothing is itself a valid action and choice. “Don’t just do something – sit there!”.
Other Tips
Consume less media and news. Lowers anxiety Avoids anchoring our thoughts to random data, which may cause worse decisions Do not listen to economic forecasters or predictors in social science. Don’t go deeply into debt. Don’t overspecialize. Learn some skills and/or have a job that can be transferrable or used for more than one type of work. Avoid optimization. Learn to love redundancy. The knowledge we get from tinkering and experimenting is better than just thinking and reasoning.The Barbell Strategy: Be both hyper-conservative and hyper-aggressive, with different things, at the same time.
Taleb discusses his days as a financial stock trader. Since we can’t know whether anything is “risky” or not, it is impossible to build a portfolio that is “medium risk”. He suggests: Put 80-90% of your investments into ‘likely safe’ vehicles, such as bonds or Treasury Bills; put the rest into extremely speculative bets – such as Venture Capital investments in research & development, or startups. This limits your maximum losses while gaining you exposure to potentially lucky, positive outcomes.
Note: This is *not* financial advice. Please don’t make large adjustments to your personal finances based on a book summary you read on the internet.
### Positive Black Swans
Black Swan events are unexpected, and impactful. But they can be both positive and negative. Positive Black Swan events include discovering a new, beneficial medicine, or inventions such as the laser and the Internet.
Taleb’s Tips For Finding + Benefiting From Positive Black Swans
Live in a city or hub of activity with an intermingling of people and ideas Go to parties Strike up random conversations with people at parties Invest in as many things as you can Keep an open mind. Good fortune could come from anywhere. Seize any opportunity, or anything that looks like an opportunity. Maximize your exposure to as many potential opportunities as you can. Put yourself into situations where favourable consequences are much larger than unfavourable ones.You can decide how many of those you want to apply in your own life.
### Tips for a More Black Swan-Robust Community
Avoid externalities. People who make decisions should have some stake in the outcome, or some consequences from the results of those decisions. No gambling with other people’s money. Build in some slack and redundancy. This is how complex systems survive. Start with small experiments. Test out small ideas first to see if they work or fail. Build and improve on the ones that work. If something will fail, finding out sooner is better than finding out later. Don’t take on large amounts of debt.I have heavily adapted and synthesized this list from Taleb’s essay Ten Principles for a Black Swan-Robust Society. This essay is included at the end of the book.
In his essay, Taleb uses the term “society”. I am reframing a few of his ideas as: how could they apply to your local group or community?
Not many of us are world leaders. But some of us may have positions of leadership in our own community, or could step up to lead.
I believe the world is better if everyone is more prepared. If people all over the planet take one step or keep this in mind to work toward a more resilient planet, we all benefit.
Read More
What should I add to my altoids EDC tin?
Gideon ParkerStaff - November 9, 2021 I’ll have to make an altoids survival tin sometime that could help me survive a night in the woods with just what is in the tin, but I do have an altoids EDC tin that I use almost everyday. Take a look at it and let me know if there is something I should add.
What would your altoids EDC tin look like? Try making one and share it on here using the kit builder!
Read More
Fine line between prepping and hoarding, regarding household capacity
CR - November 8, 2021 Let me start by stating I don’t mean panic buying etc. I’m a longtime Realtor, and have worked with a number of hoarder clients, prepper clients and a family member’s epic sized hoard. It’s a sad fact that many members of the Greatest Generation who lived through World Wars and the Great Depression are inundated with stuff & unable to let go, largely due to their past experiences of scarcity. A recent elderly client clung to his hoard so fiercely that he had a screaming match in my office with his daughter who had come from out of state to move him near her. She went home without him, declaring she was done. Sad and avoidable, a priceless relationship in tatters over stuff.
My topic aims to open a dialogue on how we all can deal healthily with hanging onto and adding to stuff in relation to its actual value in a potentially worsening scenario. We likely all have a ton of preps that we have collected and are certain will save the day when needed. Me too, I’ll state right now. However, often we hang onto other crap that has no realistic future use, and just clutters up our living and storage spaces.
I’ve had to deal with some bizarre stuff in my job, plus clearing relative’s homes. One prepper I worked with had buried 150 pounds of silver in his shop, after his son told him he shouldn’t leave it in the attic! One property I sold had 5 acres full of rusted junk, including 2 chicken barns a tornado had totaled. I had to argue with the buyer to retrieve my sign that he had already gleefully added to his newly purchased hoard and hidden in a shed.
I am really trying to downsize my own (and hubby’s!) useless junk so we have reasonable room for and can organize what will actually be useful if things go badly. My current strategy to help let things go, and what I advise clients is to ask yourself if you would buy that item again. In the case of sentimental things (tougher, certainly) it can often work to take some good pics to remember it, and pass the item along to someone who can make good use of it, or toss out as appropriate.
I’ve had so many clients that like their own homes much better after clearing & decluttering them to get ready to sell. Let’s try to do that ongoing, so we can enjoy and use our spaces efficiently now, instead of allowing stuff to crowd us out of our own homes, or trap us in them as I’ve also seen. Our kids will thank us someday too, instead of screaming in frustration like my recent client’s daughter.
Read MoreNew and looking for constructive criticism on my bug out plan
LaurenZ - November 7, 2021 Hey, some recent life situations have made me have to rethink my entire bug out plan and I just want you guys to poke as many holes in my plan as you can so I can make it as airtight as possible. Any help is incredibly appreciated.
Some background: We recently moved my husband’s ailing parents in with us and then I was diagnosed with stage 3 lymphoma. My family now consists of me, my husband, my toddler, and my in-laws. I am currently undergoing chemo; my father in law has dementia, mobility issues and parkinsons; my mother in law also has mobility issues and must be attached to an oxygen tank all day. Neither of them can get very far without a walker or motorized scooter. We are not going to be hiking miles to a destination and will most likely be sheltering at home. My home is ready for this and it is not what I’m worried about.
What I need help with: I like the tiered system that was discussed and have tweaked it to what I think may fit my needs. Level 1 bags will be what I need to get to a friend or relatives house. Each person’s bag will have a boo boo kit instead of a full FAK, a couple basic snacks, water, toothbrush, important documents, clothes, cash, charging cords and plugs, a multi tool, paracord, maps, personal medications/oxygen/dentures/diapers (for the toddler and in-laws), and will look more like a heavy EDC rather than a proper BOB. Level 2 will be for hotels and will include all level 1 plus a flat of water, security/defense items, some food, a real FAK, radio, can opener, eating utensils, paper plates and cups, and kid friendly distractions. Level 3 would be for shelters if we couldn’t get anywhere else and would be level 2 plus personal care and hygiene items, sleeping bags, power banks, ear plugs, eye masks, garbage bags and locks to keep our crap safe. These are not the full lists, as adding every tiny item would be really long, but it’s a decent representation.
I am aware that all of this requires a car to get to these destinations and that a car may experience situations that would make us have to abandon it. My car is ready with more food, water, ways to procure more water, ways to make that water potable, ways to make fire, ways to make shelter, ways to signal for help, ways to defend, kid distractions, and additional first aid supplies. The plan is that either my husband or I would use the car’s GHB to find help while the other sets up a camp and tends to the rest of the family. It’s not ideal, and would really suck, but we wouldn’t die. As I stated earlier, sheltering in place looks like my family’s best option and will most likely be what we do for as long as we safely can.
Please let me know what you think and if there is anything I should consider adding, removing, or if there is anything I hadn’t even thought of. If anyone has experience in bugging out with the elderly and disabled, I would appreciate any feedback or ideas you might have. I’m really not sure what to do to keep them safe if we were to have to go anywhere on foot. Should I keep a type of generator in my car so that we can power the portable oxygen tank? Should I bring their walkers or just craft a badass walking stick from zombie skulls and tears of the unicorns? I truly have no clue how to do this with them.
Thank you in advance for all your help!
Read MoreHow do you stack your firewood? Bark up, or bark down?
Jay ValenciaContributor - November 7, 2021 The people of Norway are serious about their firewood. So much so that Solid Wood by Lars Mytting (title changed for English release) spent more than a year on the nonfiction best-seller list in Norway. The book even sparked a 12 hour long television program about wood in which 20% of the population tuned in. During this 12 hour show, people started texting in complaining about how the wood was stacked in the program.
What they found was that about 50 percent of people preferred to have the wood stacked with the bark facing up to protect the wood from rain and snow,
and the other 50 percent preferred the wood stacked with the bark facing down to protect the wood from moisture on the ground.
(best picture I could find of this)
This even turned into a joke on the Disney movie Frozen where two citizens argue about which way the wood should be facing, which is where I learned about all this while watching with my daughter.
Some people even turn wood stacking into an art form.
Think this is all absurd? Read this New York Times article about it https://archive.md/nfaFd
So what is the proper way to store firewood? Well, in my opinion, I think bark side up is correct. If stored outside it will act like shingles and keep the wood dry from rain, also if you had the bark facing down, the U shape of the bark would trap moisture and encourage decaying.
Having proper airflow and spaces in between your wood is the most important factor however to allow drying.
How do you store your firewood? Bark up, or bark down? Exposed to the sky and ground or lifted up off the ground and covered? Indoors or outdoors? Stored in a circle or tower? Facing north, east, south, or west? Does any of this even matter?
Read More
The need for insecticides in your survival garden
RedneckContributor - November 1, 2021 I’m a long time gardener that has a small vegetable garden, that provides lots of great food for my wife & myself, plus we have a rather large orchard (over 150 trees). As a prepper, I plan for an extreme scenario, where possibly for a year or more, we might have to become self sufficient to survive. Obviously, to rapidly become self sufficient, the number one thing you need is lots of garden seed, so I keep several hundred pounds in cool storage and add approximately 50lbs per year. Most seed will become much less viable after 3-5 years, so it is important to add new seed to your stores each year.
Sounds great, but there is something many preppers don’t plan on… battling insects when you just might need every plant to survive. My many years of gardening has taught me one thing and that is, at least where I live, there is no such thing as organic growing for many foods. This year has been especially bad for critters wanting to eat up my garden. Beetles of all sorts have been especially bad from the tiny ones you can barely see to the big ones. Squash bugs will kill any squash (or similar) within a few weeks. Now we have army worms attacking the grass all around this whole area.
Picture this. We have a crisis & all good preppers pull out their hoes & seed & put in a nice, big garden. The plants start off great, but then your squash starts dying and most of your other plants’ leaves start looking like swiss cheese… full of holes. What good are those seeds & implements if you can’t control the bugs?
My solution is insecticides. Yes they have all sorts of bad connotations, but if you really want to protect you food, and possibly your life, you will need them. Some insecticides are much safer than others. Spinosad is my go to insecticide, as it is one of the safest & some folks consider it organic. If applied properly, around dusk when the pollinators have left, it will only kill insects that bite into the plant… the bad guys. Once dry, it doesn’t harm the other insects & pollinators… the good guys. I purchase a quart of Conserve SC, which has a very concentrated amount of Spinosad for under $200. 1 oz of that makes 10 gallons, so that single quart can make over 300 gallons of insecticide.
Another rather safe insecticide is Cypermethrin, is a very concentrated synthetic pyrethroid that kills insects on contact. It is considered very safe & safe around animals. That same chemical is used in my fly spray system in my horse barn. I’ll be spraying that tomorrow on my grass to kill the army worms. It only takes 3 oz per acre. Another contact killer I use in my garden is BioAdvanced Vegetable and Garden Insect Spray Concentrate. I use this as little as possible.
My point is not to push any specific insecticide. I too keep lots of insecticide soaps & oils, such as Neem oil. I’m just letting you know some of what I use. My point is to remind any prepper that plans on growing their own food, that they really need to have insecticides on hand… and a lot of it. Besides having it on hand, it would be nice if you have some experience using it prior to a crisis, where a mistake can mean you and yours going hungry. I’ve found soaps & oils can be effective but sometimes you need something a bit stronger, at least IMO.
Read MoreAvoiding a Halloween disaster
Jay ValenciaContributor - November 1, 2021 With Halloween right around the corner, I wanted to share some of the safety tips that I have used over the years. Maybe it’s a bit overkill, but I haven’t lost a child to Halloween yet. There are tips that all can benefit from, those with children and those who will just stay home.
Take your children trick or treating to known houses of people you trust. Check the sex offender registry and avoid those houses when trick or treating. Download the NSOPW app from your app store to see a map of houses to avoid wherever you go. Go out early and go home early. As the night goes on, people get drunk, it gets darker, and the older kids are out and about pulling tricks. Tell people which routes you will be walking and when you will be home. Inspect candy for any that have been tampered with by squeezing the packaging. If there isn’t a little bubble of air, it might have been opened. Look for any candy that your child may have a food allergy. One of the biggest dangers during Halloween is cars. If your three year old is running around in a black gorilla suit, it will be hard for a car to see them. Make safety fun for them by buying glow in the dark paint, using reflective tape, create a costume with LED lights, or a cheap option is buying packs of glow stick bracelets and necklaces from the dollar store. Make your children as visible as possible. If possible, avoid wearing masks that can obscure your vision. Drive slow and have your lights on as you are going around the next few days. Charge up and bring a headlight or flashlight when going around with your children. Print off your contact information and pin it to the inside of your child’s treat bag and costume. If they get lost, they can show that to someone to help reunite you. Before going out, make sure your and your child’s cell phones are completely charged and you have settings like Find My iPhone turned on. Take pictures of your children with and without their costumes on right before they go out, this can be used to show people or the police a description of your child if they get lost. Don’t make it scary for them and tell them it’s in case they get lost, just mention how you want it as memory. Do the same for your teenagers, no matter how much they complain and whine. Things happen unfortunately. If you are handing out candy, have some pepper spray close by the door in case you have some drunk teenagers come by that try and cause trouble and enter your house. Again, things happen, be prepared. Pull the jack o lanterns in when you are done handing out candy for the night and you turn your porch light off. Unless you want to pick up pumpkin guts from teenagers going around pumpkin smashing. Make sure any security cameras and home alarm systems are armed are working properly a couple days before and after Halloween. Do an extra security sweep around your property and house. Make sure all windows, doors, and padlocks are secured. People are just out and about looking for trouble. Bring a small first aid kit with you when trick or treating, running around in the dark can lead to some injuries. Have it nearby as well when carving pumpkins. If you are sick or think you have COVID, please do not go out trick or treating or hand out candy. There will be many more holidays you can enjoy, take it easy and watch a scary movie at home. Read MoreNeed advice on my winter vehicle emergency kit
Liz Klein - October 27, 2021 Winter is coming. I hate my commute during this time of year and always dread getting stuck. So I’m trying to prep now before it gets cold and miserable.
I have snow tires on my car, am up to date with repairs, and have my normal everyday get-home-bag that has maps, fire starters, food, first aid kit, etc… But I wanted to get your advice on my Winter additions. And The Prepared has a pretty nice Kit builder that I thought I would try out. Here is a link to my kit:
My budget is kinda small so these are things I just had around the house, but is there anything you recommend that I add or replace? Tell me the why behind your suggestion too.
Thanks guys!!
Read More“Listening to Katrina” website: Bugging out is a tool to escape danger and then find home
RS - October 27, 2021 The recent discussions about Hurricane Ida reminded me of a website I had skimmed years before called “Listening to Katrina” (see here: http://www.theplacewithnoname.com/blogs/klessons/ ). I re-read the website in full, and think it has a key idea that people here may appreciate thinking and talking about, so I made this new thread.
(I did a quick search, and didn’t see too many official The Prepared contributor articles on the recovery process, aside from making sure that important documents are in the Priority #1 bag for bugging out.)
The “Listening to Katrina” website is an extended read about the author’s personal experience with evacuating for Hurricane Katrina, starting the recovery process for his family, and a lot of discussion of what he learned about general emergency preparation from his experiences, listening to the experiences of others and combing through additional information available. It’s mostly the view of one person, so in addition to the news and historical records he draws from, it’s replete with anecdotes, opinions and personal color. I don’t anticipate readers here will agree with everything on the site.
Instead, I want to point out the part of his discussion that struck me the most: his philosophy about the ultimate goals of preparing (especially bugging out, but also bugging in). If you would like to read it in his words, that specific page is here: http://www.theplacewithnoname.com/blogs/klessons/p/0025.html
Here’s my summary of that page: the point of bugging out (and bugging in) is to…
First, Safeguard your health and wealth by letting you escape from/avoid danger
Second, Help you “Go Home”
Third, Help you profit by using “the rebuilding as an opportunity to grow wealth”
The second point is what made the biggest impression on me when I reread the website (years after first encountering it and not remembering much beyond “put information about insurance and identification into your bug out bag”). A lot of discussions around bugging out and bugging in rightly emphasize how this lets you avoid/reduce danger. But equally important is to emphasize how bugging out/in is a tool to facilitate your recovery process.
Whether Getting Home is returning to your previous home, or finding/building a completely new home, the goal of bugging out/in isn’t to be bugged out/in forever, it’s a stepping stone. It’s a tool you use to safeguard your health and wealth, and to create the launching platform for Finding Home, wherever that may be. So, planning to bug out/in shouldn’t be divorced from planning to recover/Find Home. Connecting the two addresses the question “after you’ve successfully evacuated to ____/after The Event has passed, then what?”
I’m adding this philosophy to the toolbox I use for evaluating my personal preparations — specifically, asking the question “will this prep also help me Get Home, wherever that may be?” Hopefully that is useful food for thought.
Read MoreBike trailers
Sun Yeti - October 22, 2021 I recently upgrade my bicycle into an ebike, and I love it. Got me thinking though. I could get over 20 miles on my bike before the battery ran out, and I had to work a bit harder; I could probably get 40+ miles away in the first day. But, I don’t have a good way to carry my stuff.
Can anyone recommend a nice sturdy bike trailer? Ideally from your personal experience and use? I’d like something that could hold probably 250 or 300 pounds, so it could hold my bug out bag (40 lbs), my cat and her go bag (maybe 15 lbs together), some of my wife’s stuff (she could ride her own bike but it also doesn’t have cargo capacity), and still have spare capacity to carry my wife or myself if one of us became injured or incapacitated. Having some kind of mesh top with rain fly would also be good in case there’s a feline and/or human riding in there. If it could fold up to take up less space that would be ideal as well, but it not the top priority.
I’ve prepared pretty decently for Plan A (bug in), Plan B (bug out by car), and Plan D (bug out on foot), but I’m thinking Plan C (bug out by bike) needs some more thought and preparation, thus my question.
Read MoreWhat creative ways do you manage your trash when city services are falling behind
EzlyAmuzzed - October 22, 2021 If your city is having waste removal problems, what creative ways are you managing your trash? I have adapted in many ways but since this community is very resourceful I would like to hear what others have done as well.
My city and surrounding counties has been having waste removal issues as well. Lawn debris has been stacking up on streets for months and garbage pickup is unpredictable, leading to garbage in the streets and an increase in the rat population. This is also a hazard if we had a hurricane which thankfully this year we didn’t. Our mayor decided to suspend recycling pickup so that workers can focus on the backlog of waste pickup complaints. On Nextdoor there is a huge amount of complaining and arguing about this which I find pointless. I have adapted in several ways, mostly through changing how I compost.
Because of the rats I tried several methods and found the ONLY method I found that doesn’t feed them is Bokashi composting which is fermenting the food first. I tried making the fermenting the compound myself and that experiment didn’t work but I know what I did wrong and could try again but got lazy and bought the granular mix online. I’m impressed at how the granular keeps the smell down and with a seal tight bucket you can’t even smell it in the house.
On recycling I educated myself on what can and cannot be recycled so that I’m not adding garbage to the mix and keeping less in our recycle bin. We have drop of locations to take the recycling, you just have to time when to go and not find it full.
Since these very large rats can chew through any plastic no matter how thick I had to go on a shopping hunt for the old fashioned galvanized steal can for the rest of the garbage.
Regarding the lawn debris I need to explain that I live in a semi-tropical area where anything and everything grows prolifically and some of it you don’t want to compost in your yard to have it grow back. What I do is let it compost in the bins first until it is half its size, then spread it in our alleyway then mow it. Our alleyways are all green and look more like hiking trails and already have everything growing there. Anything larger like limbs I keep for weekend backyard fires for a safer way of hanging out with friends.
Read MorePick axes and axe repair
Watermelon Samurai - October 21, 2021 Two questions:
1) Does anyone have a recommendation for a company that makes good quality pick-axes? I’m not happy with the quality of steel that comes on most tools imported from China or Mexico these days: I bent the last pick-axe I bought from Home Depot, and I’m not interested in replacing it with the same problem.
2) While replacing the handle on a chopping axe, I noticed a significant crack in the axe head. The crack is on the side where the handle enters the head.
The head is probably 50 years old and has outlasted several handles. Can I have the crack repaired by a welder or has it reached the end of it’s life?
Thanks in advance,
-WS
Effective mosquito repellant?
Watermelon Samurai - October 13, 2021 I am the favorite food of a mosquito.
In a room with 100 people & one mosquito, the little bugger will find me & bite me – repeatedly – and leave everyone else alone. When I step out into the Great Outdoors, it’s like throwing chum into shark infested waters. If I come back with less than a dozen bites, it’s been a good day.
I’ve tried a variety of chemical repellants with varying degrees of success. Unfortunately, the more toxic-sounding the ingredients, the better it works. I know it’s not good to slather that stuff on my skin, but if that’s what it takes to keep hiking from being a bloodletting, so be it.
If you’re bug bait like me, what repellants work for you? (…and no need to mention citronella, skin-so-soft, essential oils or Deep Woods ‘Off’ – mosquitos plow headfirst through those.) Has as anyone had any success with those ultrasonic mosquito repellent devices?Thanks in advance,
WS
Read More“Micro-Prepping” for a visually challenged partner
Barb LeeContributor - October 10, 2021 Hubby is highly – but not totally – visually challenged. I’ve made some life decisions recently that eliminate some physical risk to myself so I have less likelihood of leaving him in the lurch if I take an unscheduled trip in an ambulance (or worse). But it’s all too possible, so I need to do more to get him through a sudden crisis until he can get plugged in to services. We don’t have family or friends nearby that could help him, although a neighbor or two would probably pitch in for the short term. Anyway, since the earlier decision was made, “the rest of the story” has been weighing heavily on my mind.
So, novel assistive devices are on our gear-to-acquire list. He has a talking watch and a talking tape measure, the latter of which has been nearly life-altering for an active DIY person. But…he can’t operate the heat pump thermostat. We will be getting an Alexa-enabled thermostat installed, as Alexa already assists him with things like playing the radio, setting timers, etc.
He participates in the Library of Congress program that provides free reading material for the blind and disabled. These audiobooks are so critical to his well-being. I need to download dozens of books for him even in the simple event that we “enjoy” a power outage together.
He can’t use any sort of touch screen.
In our newly created storage space, I’m dedicating the most easily accessible shelves to heat-and-eat, or eat-out-of-the-can foods so it doesn’t matter what he grabs, he can get good nutrition. Doing the same with a freezer, and adding unheard-of-around-here things like frozen dinners and Pizza. He has tactile “bumps” on the stove so that he can use both the stove top and oven. The microwave is not so friendly, but he can definitely use it for some things. He is on top of feeding all the animals. He is highly adapted to his disability, uses all the power equipment, etc., but I will be continually refining this new direction in prepping so that he can stand alone for as long as it takes.
I am more than open to thoughts and ideas to help “micro-prep” for this amazing man.
Read MoreVacation traveling and bugout bags: How do you pack to stay prepared?
Crysis - October 8, 2021 So I’m about to travel back to the US for the first time in almost three years to visit my family. I’ve got all the paperwork in order, checked and tripled checked every detail and cleaned the house, I’ve even got everything laid out in order to pack my bags days ahead of schedule. But while doing that, the same question that I ask (and answer) every time I travel pops into my head: “Should I take my Bugout Bag?”
Usually the answer is always yes, and I find myself making room for a BOB taken apart and placed in a suitcase and carry-on, only for it to be reassembled at the destination. This takes time, space, and weight, all of it I end up paying for one way or another. And even though I am asking for advice in this forum, I know that my need to keep telling myself to stay prepared will eventually result in my mind rambling on and on. “But what if you need it? It’s crazy out there, you never know what might happen…that’s why you keep this thing!…”
So, here’s my question and plea for advice: How would you pack your Bugout Bag for travel via commercial airlines? Do you have a bag that is already perfect for checking, and it only needs you to remove any sharp objects or other contraband? Or do you just take it apart and put it all into your checked bag and carry-on. Or, do you have another system all together. Do you just leave it at home and travel light, or do you opt to not travel at all? Or am I just crazy and paranoid? That might actually be the case.
Any advice would be much appreciated! Even if you’re just telling me I’m crazy and need to calm down. 😉
-Crysis
Read MoreNeed advice for upgrading ham radio antenna
Jonnie PekelnyContributor - October 8, 2021 This is a ham radio question. I am (still) a newbie ham, mainly interested in emergency preparedness. My radio equipment currently consists of two HT radios — the Yaesu FT-60R and the Baofeng BF-F8HP. I am looking to upgrade the rubber duck antennas that came with these radios. I was advised to get a folding, tactical SMA antenna (I don’t actually know what SMA means!) but there is a plethora of choices out there. What I’m looking for is something that will meaningfully extend the range, especially of the Baofeng, is inexpensive, can be folded into my BOB and doesn’t make the radio unbalanced when I hold it in my hand. Looking for recommendations.
P.S. am I correct that the Baofeng needs a female connector and the Yaesu a male connector?
P.P.S. Beyond the male and female issue, are the HT antennas universal? Or do I have to look specifically for something that’s made for the models of radio I have?
Read MoreHow to desensitize myself to be able to kill and process an animal
Pizza Ninja - October 2, 2021 Hi everyone. I am hoping I can get some advice from you all on how to get over the squeamishness I have about killing an animal.
I know, I know, I can already hear the comments coming of where do you think your food comes from at the store. That’s why I want to try and overcome this and be okay with having to kill and eat an animal if I needed to.
A friend invited me to go fishing with him and I had just seen that The Prepared had put out an article on survival fishing. I read over it and watched the YouTube videos and it just got me all squeamish, uncomfortable, and sad to see the once alive fish end it’s life and be cut open and processed like that. I am a big animal lover and enjoy just watching them live their lives and being happy so I bet watching a video or even in person the killing of something like a rabbit or a deer would be even harder on me.
I have read from others that being respectful of the animal’s life is an important step to feel alright about killing it, and using every piece that you can. Do I just need to go out and do it?
-Tim
Read MoreBook review: The Resilient Farm and Homestead
Josh CentersContributor - September 30, 2021 As a homesteader, I often worry about just how prepared my homestead is for hard times. We use electric heat and air, city water, and fiber optic broadband. As much as I let my chickens graze and eat scraps, I still have to feed them a good deal of storebought feed (from a local Mennonite community at least). I use mostly organic amendments for the garden, but again, they’re storebought.
Figuring ways to make myself less dependent on the outside world is always in the back of my mind. Jason Snyder on Twitter recommended a couple of books on the topic.
One of those is The Resilient Farm and Homestead by Ben Falk. It serves as an introduction to permaculture with the backdrop of Falk anticipating a large-scale civilizational collapse.
The book touches on numerous topics you should be thinking about if you want to homestead or run a homestead, such as:
Designing a landscape Recycling nutrients Developing non-grid water sources Scything Raising animals Growing food Preserving food Heating your home with woodThere aren’t many topics the book goes in-depth about. A couple of notable exceptions are landscape design and wood heat, which he details at length. It’s not going to explain much of the how, like how to sharpen a scythe or build a fence, though it has many useful tips. It’s more of an introductory text that should spark your interest and lead you to more in-depth sources.
Despite that, it’s full of useful knowledge and clues you in on things you should be considering for your homestead. I strongly encourage you to buy the physical version, as it’s a graphics-heavy magazine-style format that you’ll want to flip through. It’s not a book I’m strictly reading from cover to cover, but rather flipping through and stopping at interesting sections. Every time I do so, I take away something new.
If you’re homesteading or considering it, I highly recommend it.
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Looking for natural insect repellent
Bigwig - September 28, 2021 I’d like some suggestions for natural insect repellent. I’d rather avoid chemicals like DEET if I can. Something that can be put in bug-out bags.
Read MoreHow do you safely store an emergency kit in a pickup truck?
Thomas Dakan - September 27, 2021 I, like a lot of folks, drive a pickup truck. Specifically a Nissan Frontier. I don’t have a trunk, and there isn’t a ton of extra room in the cab for a locking cabinet. I’m not planning to keep any firearms in my car kit, but I worry that an obviously full backpack will be an extra tempting target.
How do folks store their car kit to prevent theft? I have a wire rope bag and I guess I could padlock that to one of the seats, but I can see potential disadvantages to doing that. I didn’t find any articles that talked about it. Maybe everyone just brings their kit inside when they aren’t driving?
Read MoreWhat are some valuable tools to have on hand?
Olly Wright - September 27, 2021 I’m talking about things like shovel, rake, hammer, drill, air compressor….
I am wanting to build up the tools that I have on hand for day-to-day repairs and living, but also for an emergency if high winds comes through and knocks some shingles off my roof, or a window breaks. I don’t want to have to run to the hardware store as my roof is leaking and buy a hammer and nails, I want to be prepared and ready.
Read MoreSocial media and its place in your plan?
brekke - September 27, 2021 With these fires in Oregon, many agencies are referring the public to their social media sites for the most up-to-date information. However, I’m finding it to be counterproductive due to the sheer amount of false information and rumors being spread. Where do you, as a part of being prepared, draw the line between the value of obtaining verified information on current and potential emergency information on social media, versus unfollowing social media entirely and seeking facts from local, regional and national organization sites exclusively? I’m literally ready to walk away from social media, but part of me wonders if I would be giving up a necessary news resource as a part of my being aware of current and evolving situations.
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