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Sorry, I haven’t been following this thread.  It’s generated some interesting responses.  Thank you, Eric, for the detailed discussion (with graphics!). My comments were based on your two initial assertions and your first assumption: 1. everyone on the planet will probably get COVID many times over their lifetime; 2. every time someone catches COVID there is cumulative probability that they will develop Long COVID. 3.  every person catches COVID, on average, once per year going forward. Your article implies that your chance of contracting Long COVID is based on the number of times you get COVID.  You use terms like “probably”, “many times”, “cumulative probability” and “on average” but your references don’t really support your foundational assertions.  For example: Are your conclusions based on global or US population?  You start out with global population but references are primarily based on US population. What are your constraints that bound your assumptions?  At least one of the researchers in your references said their data is based on patient surveys, and subjective data isn’t as trustworthy as clinical data.  Is this really based on the number of COVID infections over your lifetime?  Your references indicate that contracting Long COVID is more related to the severity of your COVID infection, both initially and subsequently.  The severity of the infection is related to the patient’s overall health, and the ones with comorbidities (e.g., obesity, diabetes, heart/lung disease, etc) and especially multi-morbidities (e.g. COPD) are more likely to develop severe COVID infections than otherwise healthy individuals. Your assumptions may be valid, but I can’t tell.  If I can’t rely on them then I can’t really accept your conclusions, regardless of the math.  This is unfortunate, since Long COVID is definitely real and we need to know how much it’s going to end up costing us over time.

This site has great articles on “the best survival knife” that covers the gamut – folders up to Rambo-style knives.  There’s a lot of considerations, not the least of which is local laws.  I have a BK2, Morakniv, multitools, and folders.  The BK2 is a bonafide tacticool beast.  It can easily baton petrified wood, dig a trench through solid granite, and stop a charging bear just by pulling it out of the sheath.  Unfortunately it’s not something you would want to carry on you.  It’s heavy, and folks at Applebee’s may take issue with you cutting your steak with it. The Morakniv Companion is inexpensive and looks it, but it is pretty much indestructable.  I’ve used it to do pretty much everything from cutting cord, making kindling, starting fire with a ferro rod, food prep (make sure you use food-grade mineral oil on carbon-steel blades), etc.  It’s light enough to carry all day, but it’s still not something I’d want hanging off my belt in the conference room during a team meeting. Multitools are jack-of-all-trades.  Thousand and one uses.  You can fix stuff that you broke trying to fix stuff.  The pliers come in handy.  Still a bit heavy, so it’s going to sit in a belt sheath.  The tools are nice in a pinch, but I’ve also destroyed many a screw head with the screwdrivers.  The scissors are nice but sharpening them is just, well, forget it. Folders are just that: a folding knife.  Again, depending on where you live, you may not be able to walk around with anything more than a 3″ non-locking blade.  It’ll be light, easily carried, generally easy to sharpen, and can do 90% of what you need to do in a survival situation.  I’ve carried a folder since I started wearing pants with pockets. Personally, my go-to “survival knife” is a Swiss Army Tinker knife.  It’s light, sharp out of the box and easy to keep it that way, has the basic tools like can opener, slot and phillips head screwdrivers, etc.  The toothpick is a game-changer, trust me.  I can pretty much carry it any where except on a plane, so it’s always available.  It does 90% of the things that you would do in normal life and at least 75% of the things you would do in a survival situation.  And for $25 you can easily afford a couple of them – one to keep on you, one to put in your go-bag.


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Sorry, I haven’t been following this thread.  It’s generated some interesting responses.  Thank you, Eric, for the detailed discussion (with graphics!). My comments were based on your two initial assertions and your first assumption: 1. everyone on the planet will probably get COVID many times over their lifetime; 2. every time someone catches COVID there is cumulative probability that they will develop Long COVID. 3.  every person catches COVID, on average, once per year going forward. Your article implies that your chance of contracting Long COVID is based on the number of times you get COVID.  You use terms like “probably”, “many times”, “cumulative probability” and “on average” but your references don’t really support your foundational assertions.  For example: Are your conclusions based on global or US population?  You start out with global population but references are primarily based on US population. What are your constraints that bound your assumptions?  At least one of the researchers in your references said their data is based on patient surveys, and subjective data isn’t as trustworthy as clinical data.  Is this really based on the number of COVID infections over your lifetime?  Your references indicate that contracting Long COVID is more related to the severity of your COVID infection, both initially and subsequently.  The severity of the infection is related to the patient’s overall health, and the ones with comorbidities (e.g., obesity, diabetes, heart/lung disease, etc) and especially multi-morbidities (e.g. COPD) are more likely to develop severe COVID infections than otherwise healthy individuals. Your assumptions may be valid, but I can’t tell.  If I can’t rely on them then I can’t really accept your conclusions, regardless of the math.  This is unfortunate, since Long COVID is definitely real and we need to know how much it’s going to end up costing us over time.

This site has great articles on “the best survival knife” that covers the gamut – folders up to Rambo-style knives.  There’s a lot of considerations, not the least of which is local laws.  I have a BK2, Morakniv, multitools, and folders.  The BK2 is a bonafide tacticool beast.  It can easily baton petrified wood, dig a trench through solid granite, and stop a charging bear just by pulling it out of the sheath.  Unfortunately it’s not something you would want to carry on you.  It’s heavy, and folks at Applebee’s may take issue with you cutting your steak with it. The Morakniv Companion is inexpensive and looks it, but it is pretty much indestructable.  I’ve used it to do pretty much everything from cutting cord, making kindling, starting fire with a ferro rod, food prep (make sure you use food-grade mineral oil on carbon-steel blades), etc.  It’s light enough to carry all day, but it’s still not something I’d want hanging off my belt in the conference room during a team meeting. Multitools are jack-of-all-trades.  Thousand and one uses.  You can fix stuff that you broke trying to fix stuff.  The pliers come in handy.  Still a bit heavy, so it’s going to sit in a belt sheath.  The tools are nice in a pinch, but I’ve also destroyed many a screw head with the screwdrivers.  The scissors are nice but sharpening them is just, well, forget it. Folders are just that: a folding knife.  Again, depending on where you live, you may not be able to walk around with anything more than a 3″ non-locking blade.  It’ll be light, easily carried, generally easy to sharpen, and can do 90% of what you need to do in a survival situation.  I’ve carried a folder since I started wearing pants with pockets. Personally, my go-to “survival knife” is a Swiss Army Tinker knife.  It’s light, sharp out of the box and easy to keep it that way, has the basic tools like can opener, slot and phillips head screwdrivers, etc.  The toothpick is a game-changer, trust me.  I can pretty much carry it any where except on a plane, so it’s always available.  It does 90% of the things that you would do in normal life and at least 75% of the things you would do in a survival situation.  And for $25 you can easily afford a couple of them – one to keep on you, one to put in your go-bag.


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