A collection of key developments in the fight against the Wuhan coronavirus (nCoV-2019), posted throughout the week for those who just want the signal and not the noise. If there’s something you think we should include, sound off in the comments thread attached to the post.
Visit our Wuhan coronavirus status page and learn how to prepare for possible spread to your area. Scenarios, shopping lists, background info, and everything else you need, all in one place.
Previously: Last week’s key developments post is here, if you want to review.
Next: The Tuesday update is here.
[5:31 pm] The UK declares the virus a “serious and imminent threat to public health” after the number of confirmed cases doubles to eight. [5:30 pm] A third school in France has closed due to the virus. [5:25 pm] Coronavirus tests U.S. medical system’s unhealthy reliance on China for drugs, supplies. “The basic building blocks of U.S. health care are now under the control of the Chinese Communist Party.” [5:24 pm] A new pair of papers, one looking at whether the travel restrictions are working (maybe), and another showing a crowdsourced epidemiological model for the virus. [5:21 pm] Singapore’s PM on how his country is bracing for impact. They’re hoping that their advanced healthcare system, which was ranked second in the world, can handle whatever this virus throws at them. They’re also hoping for a very low, flu-like 0.2% CFR, which seems like big reach. [5:20 pm] A thread of scenes from a near-empty Shanghai, on the city’s first day back to work after the holiday:
[5:15 pm] The Diamond Princess case count climbs to 136. [5:10 pm] The Chinese National Health Commission is supposedly changing the requirement for confirming a case as positive for nCoV-2019 from a positive PCR test to a positive PCR test plus symptoms. The WHO says it doesn’t know anything about this change. [4:31 pm] Story: “Hong Kong authorities have evacuated some residents at a Tsing Yi housing estate after two were diagnosed with the novel coronavirus despite living floors apart.” The suspicion is that a shared sewage pipe is involved. [3:13 pm] British Airways has canceled all flights to Beijing and Shanghai through April 1. These were popular routes, and they are leaving a lot of money on the table. This will hurt. [3:00 pm] Random supply chain problem of the day: a coronavirus-induced hockey stick shortage. Maybe now Canada will get serious about this virus. [2:33 pm] A new report is out with a new set of CFR estimates in the range of 1.2% to 5.6%. [2:29 pm] An important new cohort study is out [PDF], with new info on the progression of the disease, severity, outcomes, and other data.
Some images from Shanghai’s first official day back to work. In reality a very “soft opening”, much like the rest of China.
Subway would normally be packed during the morning commute, impossible to find a seat. Today you can find your own bench. (1/) pic.twitter.com/aOgwWf0wRp
— Simon Rabinovitch (@S_Rabinovitch) February 10, 2020