Novel coronavirus (COVID-19)

If you’re worried about the SARS-COV-2 coronavirus outbreak or feel unprepared, this guide is for you.

Experts explain what you should do to get ready, how to protect yourself, what researchers believe are the likely scenarios going forward, and the latest fact-checked news.

Always use caution with what you read online — particularly in situations like this. You can trust this page because it’s built by actual emergency experts with decades of relevant experience and we’re working directly with sources inside various governments and agencies.

Your most important goals:

1. Be able to shelter in your home for at least two weeks — 90 days is even better — without leaving for supplies or outside help. If we have a significant amount of transmission here in the US, you’ll want the option of avoiding other people and public places. Or, if things get really dire, it may be recommended or required that you stay in your home for a period of time.
2. Be able to protect yourself against picking up the virus. There are steps you can take now, and more serious steps you may want to have ready in case things get much worse.
3. Listen to legitimate sources so you can make decisions based on accurate, rational news. This epidemic already has enough actual cause for concern —- there’s no need to make things worse with fake news!

If you’re totally unprepared, get the following absolute essentials before taking any other steps:

• A source of potable water (storage is preferable, but if space is tight then get a filter)
• Extras of any essential medications you’re taking
• Toilet paper, feminine hygiene products, soap, detergent, and everything else you need to keep your body and your home clean
• Nitrile gloves and an N95 mask

Latest news and key developments

For detailed information on the SARS-COV-2 virus, check out our lengthy background piece.

Key developments from Wednesday, May 5, 2020:

• There are now more than 3.8 million global cases.  The US gained more than 25,000 since yesterday, for a total of 1.26 million. There have been over 2,500 deaths in the US in the last 24 hours. There have been over 260,000 deaths around the world from the pandemic virus.
• There’s more evidence that transmission occurs more often in closed spaces versus outdoor environments. This is a pre-print, and has not yet been peer reviewed, so take with a grain of salt—but it joins a growing body of evidence that supports its finding.
• Officials in Sweden surprised by death toll despite lack of lockdown—says these deaths “weren’t part of the plan.” Although their pandemic response has largely spared their economy compared to Europe and America, it came at the cost of the lives of the elderly. Half of all deaths in Sweden are from nursing homes.
• More key developments for today, here.

Latest blog posts:

• Cloth masks & smartphone-controlled respirators are about to be the new face of your face in public
• Bad news: a newly identified mutation makes SARS-CoV-2 more transmissible
• Getting takeout from a restaurant without catching COVID-19
• Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong
• Prepping is just “flattening the curve” for everything from food to electricity
• See our blog for more

What to buy to protect yourself against the coronavirus

When it comes to stocking up on protective gear and medical products, the idea is not to recreate a full-blown emergency room or ICU. Rather, you want to have enough of an ability to take care of minor medical situations at home that you don’t have to run out to a doctor’s office or pharmacy unless it’s a serious medical emergency.

You should also prepare for medicine shortages, because not only will supply chains and factories be disrupted, but the demand for medications from the overloaded healthcare system will be so high that you may have a hard time getting many common over-the-counter medications and prescription drugs.

Your goals:

• Try to get a few months’ supply of your prescription medications.
• Stock up on commonly used medications, e.g. pain relievers, cough suppressants, antibiotic ointments and creams, and the like.
• Prepare for the inevitable stomach problems that will arise from eating your shelter-in-place food by buying Imodium AD and similar products.
• Prepare for the possibility that you may need to quarantine a sick friend or family member inside your home.
• Be able to clean and disinfect the space where you and possibly multiple others will be living for an extended period.

The bare essentials:

• Hand sanitizer
• Nitrile gloves
• Respirators — see below. If you have facial hair, you’ll also want to throw in a razor and shaving cream, because some facial hair styles are not compatible with masks.
• Eye protection such as industrial safety goggles, swim goggles, or anything that would keep someone else’s sneeze from hitting your eyes (even basic glasses are better than nothing)
• Toilet paper and feminine hygiene products. (This stuff turned into currency on Hong Kong during their lockdown, since so few thought to stockpile it.)
• Bleach, alcohol, and other household cleaners that will kill viruses on shared surfaces.

The complete list: For the specific purpose of pandemic preparedness and sheltering in place, we have combined our individual first aid kit and home medical supplies lists into a single, more specialized kit. This kit also contains hygiene products for cleaning, sanitation, and sealing off an area of a home for quarantine purposes.

A word about respirators

Respirators are tricky, and there’s a lot of bad info out there. You can read the full beginner’s guide to respirators and gas masks, including tips on how to use them and recommended models. The most important bits:

• You want a respirator rated N95 or above (e.g. P100).
• Surgical masks — the common types found at corner stores that are more commonly worn in Asia — are not proper respirators. They are mostly designed to protect other people from you, not the other way around.
• However, proper respirators are in low supply around the world right now (3M is running their factory 24/7 just to meet urgent medical needs). If the best you can do is a surgical mask, it’s better than nothing.
• Respirator filters/cartridges don’t last as long as most people think, so buy as many as you reasonably can.
• A full-face respirator (i.e. a gas mask) protects your eyes, nose, and mouth at the same time. If you buy disposable or half-face respirators, you’ll also want separate eye protection.
• Fit is important — respirators need a tight seal around your face in order to stop bad particles from getting inside.
• Which means those with facial hair or children with small faces need to be extra careful, since there isn’t a proper seal around the face.

What to buy for the other challenges of an outbreak

Note that under even the most severe scenarios experts currently envision within the US, utilities and local services/governments will still function. So for now, what you’re mostly focused on is being able to comfortably survive locked in your house for a few weeks. This means you’ll need water, food, and things to keep you occupied during a lockdown.

You also might not have much warning before the moment comes that you need to stay in your home for days or weeks — don’t assume you’ll have time to run to the store or that the supplies you want will still be on the shelves.

Food and water

Your goals:

• Have ready access to enough potable water for at least 72 hours (i.e. three gallons, at one gallon per person per day). It’s very unlikely the tap would run dry, but water is so critical that you never want to risk being without it. Ideally you’d like 15 gallons per person, so enough for five days.
• Cover the nutritional basics (carbohydrates, protein, fat, fiber, vitamins and minerals)
• Stock up slowly by grabbing extra every time you go out.
• Prefer foods you already eat, so as to avoid the gastrointestinal problems that come with disruption to your diet
• Prefer shelf-stable foods that don’t require refrigeration
• Get some comfort foods — candy, desserts, snacks, baked goods — to help with the stress of a crisis and a change in routine
• Mix staples that require stovetop preparation (e.g. rice, pasta, beans) with ready-to-eat meals (e.g. canned goods, MREs), because you may not always be in a position to prepare food due to illness or lack of time.

Water is so important that we include it here as a requirement despite our starting assumption that the taps will run throughout a pandemic. It may not be feasible to store multiple weeks worth of water, but you should at least have 72 hours worth (three gallons per person) on-hand in case of a temporary disruption.

Here’s a review of common water containers you can fill from the tap. You should also pick up a portable water filter.

Our Picks

Best container for most people:

Reliance Rhino 5.5 Gal Water Container

Toughest container in the middle tier price class. Somewhat stackable for short term storage. Comes with everything you need. Survived our drop and crush tests.

• Check price on Amazon

Best filter kit for most people:

HydroBlu Versa Inline Filter Kit

Bacteria/protozoa protection. The kit includes two soft attachable water bags, a hose, hose clamp, and bucket adapter. 0.1 micron filter. Lasts 378,00 liters (100,000 gal). 1.5 oz heavy, 5.5" long.

• $24 from HydroBlu
• Check price on Amazon

Once you have water squared away, then begin stocking up on food.

When most people think of shelf-stable emergency food, they think of canned goods, military-style MREs, or specialized emergency food. All of these things are fantastic, especially if you’re preparing for a long-term grid-down event, but if you’re just preparing for a multi-week shelter-in-place scenario then you don’t need food with a 30-year shelf-life.

The bulk of your shelf-stable food preps will be bags of beans and legumes, rice, flour, pasta, and other staples you can buy in bulk and prepare easily. As you select these bulk staples, look for a mix of carbs (e.g. rice, flour), protein (e.g. beans, lentils), and fiber (e.g. oats).

You’ll need oils and animal fats, both for preparing the staples and because fat is an essential macronutrient. So stock up on cooking oil — the experts we’ve talked to love coconut oil, avocado oil, Smart Balance, almond oil, and olive oil. These different oils have different heat tolerances, shelf lives, and fat profiles, so think through your needs and diet before heading to the store.

Protein is key, so if you have a freezer then now’s a good time to stock up on meats of different kinds. And if you don’t have a freezer, you can get a good-sized chest freezer at most hardware stores for well under $200. So if you have the space and can spend the money, a cheap freezer can be an amazing prep.

You should also consider adding meal replacement mixes and protein powders, because these products last for months in a pantry and can add enough protein, vitamins, and minerals to turn a simple bowl of cereal or oatmeal into a complete meal with most of the essential micro macro- and micro-nutrients. (And if you add oil to the cereal, then you’ve got fat covered, too.)

The kit below is a sample shopping list for one person for one week. You can use it as-is, copy it and customize it with our Kit Builder tool, or just draw on it for inspiration as you plan your next shopping trip.

This next kit is a work-in-progress, and is broken up by nutrient type. This is meant to give you ideas as you go through Costco, Wal-Mart, or your local grocery store and load up on supplies.

Entertainment and distractions

The most important aspect of preparedness is mindset — this means managing your stress levels and overall state of mind so that you can think clearly and make high-quality decisions. So while it’s important to stay informed, if you’re constantly glued to social media or the news during a pandemic lockdown, your mental health may suffer and your decision-making capacity become degraded.

You need to be able to escape for a bit, to relax, to laugh, and to enjoy the company of other people who are going through a crisis with you.

Your goals:

• Unplug from the news and social media, and give your eyes and mind a rest.
• Reduce stress and anxiety
• Socialize and interact with others face-to-face
• Build community
• Give yourself and everyone else something to look forward to in the afternoons or evenings
• Unwind at the end of a long day of doing whatever’s you had to do to get through the crisis
• Be able to keep yourself entertained even if the Internet is too slow to stream movies and TV.

The following list gives a few general ideas for staying entertained and distracted during the long bouts of boredom that characterize a lockdown. Some of the items are solo activities you can do alone, while others are more social. It’s important to have a mix, because you’ll need both face-to-face human connection and some time alone if you’re sheltering in place with others.

• Downloaded movies and DVDs (in case your internet is disrupted).
• Computer or console games
• Board games
• Card games
• Puzzles

Ready to go past the basics?

The items above are the bare essentials for this specific scenario and for people who don’t want to go any deeper into the preparedness community or mindset.

But if you want to go a little further and cover scenarios where some local services start failing or you have to evacuate:

• Portable water filter.
• Battery- or solar-powered radio.
• Portable power pack, for keeping phones and other gadgets charged when you’re either on-the-go or in a crowded living situation without convenient access to a wall outlet.
• Entertainment that works without power/internet — people can make bad decisions because they’re bored.

If this event has opened your eyes to just how fragile our world is — and how important it is for you to be self-reliant — it’s easier than you think to become more properly prepared. Check these out:

• Beginner’s emergency preparedness checklist
• How to build a first aid kit
• How to build an emergency kit / bug out bag

Although we don’t yet believe things are going to decay to the level of social unrest, looting, and violence, many readers are nonetheless asking us questions about personal protection and how to defend their families and supplies if things get worse. If you’re wondering the same:

• The best answer is always to avoid the conflict to begin with. Keep your doors locked, don’t broadcast to the public you have supplies, and so on. But don’t be afraid to talk about preparedness with the people you love.
• Body armor can protect you from firearm and knife threats. AR500.com, known for their affordable steel armor as covered in the body armor review, tells us they’ve seen a spike in orders but have been ramping production to keep delays low. Lead times are starting to build up around mid-March, though.
• Here’s a beginner’s guide to firearms and a roundup of air guns that can be made to work if firearms aren’t a fit for your situation.
• You might consider security around your home, like this recent encounter one of our writers had with an armed person on their porch.

Best practices

How to keep from getting infected:

• Staying away from other people (i.e. “social distancing”) is the best way to avoid getting sick.
• Wash your hands frequently.
• Don’t shake hands with other people — it’s a gross custom that needs to end anyway.
• Be aware of how often you touch your face and try to break that habit right now.
• Don’t forget that your eyes are just as much of a “front door” for the virus as your mouth and nose.
• If you venture out using gloves, respirators, and/or goggles, wash your hands before removing the protective gear, then be careful of what/where you’re touching as you remove the items. SARS workers were getting sick just from the short moment when they removed their gear and dirty parts/fingers touched places they shouldn’t.

What to do if you think you’re infected:

• Isolate yourself and warn family members.
• If you haven’t travelled in the last week or two, and there aren’t known coronavirus cases in your area already, it’s likely you have the normal flu.
• Call your doctor.
• If you go to a hospital or other healthcare facility, wear your protective gear and don’t take it off unless a pro tells you to. If you don’t have proper protective gear, use anything possible, such as a bandana or t-shirt over your mouth and nose while wearing sunglasses and winter gloves.

What the next weeks might look like

The range of realistic scenarios laid out below are not predictions. They’re planning tools to help you prepare based on what you might face.

Even in pessimistic models, experts aren’t planning for doomsday. We don’t think a really bad situation where food stocks are low and critical infrastructure is iffy is even worth talking about at this point.

We’ll update this page if expert predictions get worse.

Baseline scenario

Our baseline scenario — what we feel is most likely to unfold — is that the virus will spread person-to-person in a sustained way globally, not only in Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa, but also in the US or Europe. We’re expecting disruption to daily life at some point here in the US, and in most places worldwide.

This scenario envisions a rising case count in one or more major US cities, possibly to the point that a city has hundreds of cases before serious lockdown measures are taken to halt the spread.

We’re assuming in this scenario that we can, in fact, keep really bad outbreaks more or less geographically contained with Chinese-style quarantines, lockdowns, and travel restrictions in some cities and counties. We’re also assuming in this scenario that the fatality ratio is low, at about one or two percent at the most, but possibly below one percent.

What to prepare for:

• International travel restrictions that extend well beyond China, including the rest of Asia, Africa, and LatAm.
• Some pressure on US healthcare systems as hoarding of supplies results in shortages for healthcare workers. Health systems in the most affected cities will likely be overloaded.
• Possible disruptions in domestic air travel, due to the following: 1) pilots and airline staff refuse to fly in and out of affected cities, 2) fear and infection control measures like temperature checkpoints make air travel too inconvenient and people stop flying, which translates into lots of canceled flights.
• Cancellations of large gatherings or events (e.g. concerts), especially in affected cities.
• Some significant amount of voluntary home quarantine by people whose work and/or lifestyle makes this possible (e.g. remote workers, parents who homeschool).
• Isolated examples of voluntary relocation within your own network, as friends, family, or coworkers opt to move out of an affected zone until things calm down.
• Isolated but high-profile instances of xenophobic/racist violence, which causes widespread worries about physical safety among targeted groups.

Severe disruption

As with our baseline scenario, our severe scenario assumes the virus goes pandemic and spreads domestically, but the situation is worse because we’re not able to keep it constrained in any way.

If America has uncontrolled community transmission in most cities and counties, then the big questions that determine how severely our lives are disrupted are the following:

1. What is the fatality rate here in the US, with our advanced healthcare system?
2. What percentage of non-fatal cases have severe symptoms that require hospitalization, or even just a doctor visit and treatment?

These are big unknowns, so for the sake of planning we’re currently assuming the following general outlines for a severe scenario: the fatality rate in the US is on the order of about 2-4 percent, and the percentage of severe cases that require treatment is about 15 percent. With less than ten percent of our population infected, this latter number (15 percent requiring a hospital bed) is more than enough to overload the capacity of our hospitals and clinics.

What to prepare for:

• Long waits at hospitals and clinics, and more deaths from unrelated illnesses because of overall reduced access to healthcare.
• Widespread voluntary lockdown in homes for severely affected regions.
• Dedicated quarantine areas set up by FEMA, the military, the Red Cross, and other groups.
• Serious restrictions on domestic air travel, either from official order or because pilots and crew refuse to show up.
• Widespread school and daycare closures.
• Widespread closures of local businesses.
• Large companies pushing employees into remote work, halting all air travel, and moving meetings to video chat.
• Extended delivery times from carriers like USPS, UPS, and FedEx, as they cope with a combination of increased load (everyone’s ordering from home), reduced staff, and travel restrictions.
• Internet slowdowns in some neighborhoods, since everyone is home and streaming (or remote working) at the same time.
• Sealing off an area of a home or apartment in order to quarantine an ill family member.
• Temporary relocation to a safer area with much lower case count and less chaos and disruption.
• More instances of xenophobic/racist violence, along with some inter-ethnic conflicts in urban areas, as scared people begin to group up and turn on one another.

Links to online news sources and portals

• 2019-nCoV Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE
• Wuhan virus case tracker and feed
• Chinese language case map and tracker
• European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control’s page on novel coronavirus
• IDSA Novel Coronavirus 2019 (2019-nCoV): What You Need to Know