Discussions

Emily Oster has written a excellent piece about decision making around COVID risk: https://slate.com/technology/2020/05/coronavirus-family-choices-grandparents-day-care-summer-camp.html She also has an updated roundup of current findings about kids and COVID risk here: https://explaincovid.org/explainers/kids-and-covid-19 This article about childcare that has been operating the whole time is also encouraging: https://www.npr.org/2020/06/24/882316641/what-parents-can-learn-from-child-care-centers-that-stayed-open-during-lockdowns That kids don’t seem to be as susceptible to catching or spreading the virus is one of the few positive aspects of this whole pandemic. We have chosen to send our toddler back to daycare given the current info available, despite keeping frequent contact with grandparents. His grandparents are all in their early 60s or younger, so at dramatically less risk than people in their 80s. Interestingly, my mom’s oncologist approved this decision, even though she is actively being treated for metastatic cancer. He believes that since she has no lung involvement, with her well-controlled blood counts the mental health benefits outweigh the risks. As for the options available…the huge number of (largely) women who are dropping out of the workforce to handle childcare is going to have long-reaching economic and cultural effects. I feel like I hardly see any discussion of it outside of circles of other working moms.

That’s unfortunately not how the menstrual cycle works. The length of time between ovulation and menstruation (the end of the cycle) tends to be fairly stable for individual menstruators (though different between them) but the time between start of menstruation and ovulation is easily affected by illness, stress, exercise levels, temperature, and hormonal variation. Once your period begins it’s somewhat plausible to guess  when you last ovulated but much less reliable to guess when you next will ovulate. You see the issue there for trying to prevent pregnancy. An additional wrinkle is that there are physical signs that you can use to detect ovulation, including cervical mucus that the Creighton method is based on — but your fertile window begins up to 5 days _before_ ovulation, and those signals can be very faint at that point. The method that you’ve described, using only a calendar to predict fertility, is known as the calendar method or rhythm method, and you’ve probably heard jokes about it for good reason. Even people who do use it suggest tracking for at least 6 months to establish individual ovulation patterns. More sophisticated fertility awareness methods like the Creighton method are more effective and have some great benefits, but SHTF situations are precisely where they’re least likely to be effective. I think the rule of thumb you’re looking for is this: reproductive healthcare needs to be considered as important as wound care when preparing and stocking for disaster situations.

Shelf-stable pantry meals for snobs
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Preps with a newborn
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Shelf-stable pantry meals for snobs
0
2
Preps with a newborn
7
4

Emily Oster has written a excellent piece about decision making around COVID risk: https://slate.com/technology/2020/05/coronavirus-family-choices-grandparents-day-care-summer-camp.html She also has an updated roundup of current findings about kids and COVID risk here: https://explaincovid.org/explainers/kids-and-covid-19 This article about childcare that has been operating the whole time is also encouraging: https://www.npr.org/2020/06/24/882316641/what-parents-can-learn-from-child-care-centers-that-stayed-open-during-lockdowns That kids don’t seem to be as susceptible to catching or spreading the virus is one of the few positive aspects of this whole pandemic. We have chosen to send our toddler back to daycare given the current info available, despite keeping frequent contact with grandparents. His grandparents are all in their early 60s or younger, so at dramatically less risk than people in their 80s. Interestingly, my mom’s oncologist approved this decision, even though she is actively being treated for metastatic cancer. He believes that since she has no lung involvement, with her well-controlled blood counts the mental health benefits outweigh the risks. As for the options available…the huge number of (largely) women who are dropping out of the workforce to handle childcare is going to have long-reaching economic and cultural effects. I feel like I hardly see any discussion of it outside of circles of other working moms.

That’s unfortunately not how the menstrual cycle works. The length of time between ovulation and menstruation (the end of the cycle) tends to be fairly stable for individual menstruators (though different between them) but the time between start of menstruation and ovulation is easily affected by illness, stress, exercise levels, temperature, and hormonal variation. Once your period begins it’s somewhat plausible to guess  when you last ovulated but much less reliable to guess when you next will ovulate. You see the issue there for trying to prevent pregnancy. An additional wrinkle is that there are physical signs that you can use to detect ovulation, including cervical mucus that the Creighton method is based on — but your fertile window begins up to 5 days _before_ ovulation, and those signals can be very faint at that point. The method that you’ve described, using only a calendar to predict fertility, is known as the calendar method or rhythm method, and you’ve probably heard jokes about it for good reason. Even people who do use it suggest tracking for at least 6 months to establish individual ovulation patterns. More sophisticated fertility awareness methods like the Creighton method are more effective and have some great benefits, but SHTF situations are precisely where they’re least likely to be effective. I think the rule of thumb you’re looking for is this: reproductive healthcare needs to be considered as important as wound care when preparing and stocking for disaster situations.