We don’t know what will happen next week with the election, and we’re not about to make any big predictions. But everyone else is certainly making predictions — mainstream media outlets are openly speculating about Civil War 2.0, businesses are preparing for massive unrest, and citizens are arming up.
We’ve been tracking all of these developments in our internal company chatroom, and we’ve compiled the most recent examples of this kind of activity into the list below. Read up for yourself and make up your own mind.
Our only ask is that you not rush out and do a bunch of last-minute panic buying. If you think this link dump will drive you over the edge into doomshopping, then skip all the links and scroll down to the bottom for our advice on how to handle the next week or so.
Media speculation about civil war
There’s an overwhelming amount of speculation in the media about a potential civil war, often in mainstream outlets.
BuzzFeed News warned about a political stress indicator, which often ramps up in the lead up to civil unrest and war. The chart from 1980 to 2020 is very similar to the chart from 1820 to 1860 when the first civil war began.
Vice asks if the United States is already in a civil war, just not in a form we’re familiar with in the United States, but rather in the form of pervasive street fights between insurgents. The term for this, which they don’t use in the article is “fourth-generation warfare,” a low-intensity conflict that can carry on for years, even as noncombatants live out their lives as normal in a split-screen effect.
An episode of Endless Thread on WBUR, an NPR station out of Boston, bluntly asks: “Is the US Headed Towards a Second Civil War?”
The November 2020 issue of The Atlantic profiled Stuart Rhodes, founder of the Oath Keepers, a militant group preparing for a civil war. (The Oath Keepers are often lumped in with white supremacists, but the group has supported Black Lives Matter in the past, though there was later drama over a member trying to arm Black Lives Matter.)
The New York Review of Books took a much more combative tone, calling Republicans the “New Confederacy.” The author, David W. Blight said “We are essentially two political tribes fighting a cold civil war that may determine whether or not our institutions can survive the strife fomented by a pandemic, a racial reckoning, an economic collapse, the death of a transcendent Supreme Court justice, and the reelection campaign of our homegrown authoritarian president.”
Even international papers are speculating about an American civil war. The Japan Times asks: “Will Donald Trump cause a Civil War?”
CNN recently published an account from Joseph Jimmy Sankaituah, a survivor of Liberia’s civil wars, offering his advice to Americans. “Take care, be vigilant and do not dismiss the warning signs of violence. One of the strange secrets of war is that ordinary life continues. Violent conflict can creep up on you, like the darkness of night arriving in gradual shades. The creeping menace can desensitize you until the hour is too late,” Sankaituah said.
Thankfully, there are some voices in the media trying to dispel these notions. The Palm Beach Post says, yes we’re having a civil war, but with ballots instead of bullets. Evan Renfro denounces the idea in the Des Moines Register, saying:
What we know from the modern history of civil war is that the leader of the country (whether legitimate or not) must have two things going for him (and, yes, it’s always a “him” when it comes to chaos and widespread violence) in order to survive a civil war. One, the full backing of the country’s military apparatus, and two, the full backing of the country’s secret police and intelligence apparatuses (for example, the FBI and the CIA). In this country, the president lacks, utterly, either of those two fundamental requirements. It will, someday, be seen as fortunate that the current president’s administration has been most aptly described as “malevolence tempered by incompetence.” We’ll be OK; this time.
Government and business are preparing
That said, governments and businesses are preparing for things to hit the fan on election week.
CNN reports that two Department of Homeland Security Agencies, Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection, are increasing training and “putting personnel on standby.”
Military police units in Arizona are training in preparation for civil unrest. Meanwhile, in Washington State, the Seattle Police Department has canceled time off for officers around election time and 300 National Guardsmen have been brought home from Europe. Sheriff’s deputies in Pennsylvania are training for civil unrest around the election. Minnesota is shoring up civil unrest plans after May’s protests and riots. Academics in San Diego are organizing to deter post-election civil unrest.
NPR reports on various efforts of local police and the National Guard around the country. General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was quick to put down talk of military involvement in the election:
This is not the first time that someone has suggested there might be a contested election. And if there is, it’ll be handled appropriately by the courts and by the U.S. Congress. There’s no role for the U.S. military in determining the outcome of a U.S. election. Zero. There is no role there.
Meanwhile, businesses are preparing for election unrest. Reuters reported on retailers, already suffering from unrest, preparing for even more. Foot Locker has already reported $18 million in costs from civil unrest this year.
Tech companies are also preparing. Facebook is preparing to deploy internal tools that it usually reserves for “at-risk” countries like Egypt. YouTube will be adding election day warning labels that results may not be final.
Americans are stockpiling guns
Meanwhile, Americans are arming up at unheard-of rates. Americans will be headed into election day loaded for bear.
CNN reports that millions of new gun owners have entered the market. 40% of gun sales in the first four months of 2020 were to new buyers, with gun sales among black Americans up 58% and sales to women up 40% through September. NBC News profiled new gun owners who are stocking up due to fears of election violence.
A study by the UC Davis School of Medicine found that gun sales in California are up 500% this year. Gun sales in Georgia are up sharply.
USA Today reports that Americans aren’t just stocking up on guns, but also on toilet paper, canned goods, and other essential supplies.
It turns out that in a time where Americans don’t seem to agree on much of anything, the NYT reports that we can all agree on guns.
What should you do?
As we put it in a recent blog post, there are very few possible scenarios where the Amazon trucks stop running after election day. Even if things get as bad as some of the articles above suggest, you’ll still be able to get most things for quite some time to come.
More: Food list: How to build your survival pantry with long-lasting food from the supermarket
So as we get closer to election day and you make your plans and get your preps in order, please keep the following in mind:
- Not only will retail establishments still be open after the election, but your bills will all still be due.
- Prioritize any last-minute purchases by what’s likely to be sold out due to election fears.
- Keep your COVID food stockpiles topped off. You may want to stay inside for a bit.
- It’s better to turn off the news and rely on text alerts from friends if things get wild in your area than it is to wreck your mental health by doomscrolling.
- Keep your gas tank full. If there’s a sudden panic of any kind, gas will be the first thing to go in many places.
- Don’t make big fear-driven moves in your portfolio or retirement plans.
- Worry more about the recent COVID surge than the election, and keep taking those precautions.
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