A collection of key developments in the fight against COVID-19 (the actual virus is SARS-COV-2), posted throughout the week for those who just want the signal and not the noise. If there’s something you think we should include, sound off in the comments thread attached to the post.
Visit our Wuhan coronavirus status page and learn how to prepare for possible spread to your area. Scenarios, shopping lists, background info, and everything else you need, all in one place.
Previously: The previous day’s key developments post is here.
Today was the day the idea that this could get bad in the US really seemed to break through to much of the media and some of the public. Judging by my own social media feeds, it was a day of Costco runs — both actual runs, planning for future runs, and regrets about not having made runs earlier. It seemed like the day that a whole new cohort of people got religion about the need to take this new coronavirus seriously.
The likely cause of this collective come-to-Jesus moment was a surprising bit of candor from the CDC. In a press conference, the agency warned Americans of possible “severe disruption” from likely human-to-human spread, here.
A CDC spokesperson told the public that she had spoken to her own children this morning about what may be coming, and warned the public about school and business closures.
From ABC News’s coverage:
Health Secretary Alex Azar told reporters at a Tuesday afternoon press conference that U.S. would be undertaking “the most aggressive containment efforts in modern history”
“We are going to continue taking those measures but we are realistic that we will see more cases and as we see more cases we might have to take community mitigation efforts,” he said.
The other big thing that happened today to wake people up is that we got some alarming news from the WHO team that’s in China helping out with the disease.
In a nutshell, what the team said is that they did not find a bunch of mild and asymptomatic cases. Why is this bad? Well, experts have been telling everyone not to get too worked up over the seemingly high fatality rate numbers and rates of severe and critical illness, because they’ll surely come down dramatically when we find all the milder cases that aren’t on the healthcare system’s radar.
This iceberg diagram from Helen Branswell is typical:
15. Think of an iceberg. With #COVID19, it's easy to see the deaths/serious cases. But people with mild illness don't go to hospital/don't get tested. Studies have to be done to find them. We need a clearer picture. If the data exist, share. If they don't, generate them. pic.twitter.com/26yau3wpCF
— Helen Branswell 🇨🇦 (@HelenBranswell) February 22, 2020
But if the WHO team didn’t find all the “invisible cases” they thought they’d find, then it means that the alarming disease numbers — a roughly 2 percent fatality rate, a 14 percent (or higher) rate of severe infections that need medical attention, and a five percent rate of critical infections that need an ICU bed — are likely to be the real numbers we’re all dealing with.
So if responsible estimates of some 40 to 70 percent of the population getting infected are correct, then the US healthcare system is a few orders of magnitude away from having the capacity to treat that many severe and critical illnesses, which implies that the fatality rate could be even higher than 2 percent.
One important caveat is that there is some weird and conflicting information coming out of the WHO, and to me and many observers their response to they look at times like there messaging may be a bit too deferential to China’s interests. So it could be that for whatever reason — maybe the CCP wants to present to the world that its case numbers are legit and to be trusted — the WHO is caving to pressure to talk up Chinese disease surveillance in this manner.
So before you worry too much about this bit of news, consider that real possibility that the WHO may in fact be full of it when it comes to China. I don’t say that lightly, but their bizarre, active pushback on the idea that COVID-19 is currently even a pandemic, repeated praise for the Chinese government’s (catastrophically mismanaged) handling of this crisis, and their weird talking up of just how insanely great China’s healthcare system, seems fishy.
Finally, we’re still not testing people here in the US (we’ve tested only 453 people so far, less than Switzerland), and state and local labs are getting so fed up they’re trying to just make their own tests.
Articles and coverage
Covid-19 Will Mark the End of Affluence Politics. “The possibility of a global pandemic will reveal our inability to make and distribute the things people need—just in time for a presidential election.”
The Atlantic warns: You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus. The trick, of course, is to not get it at the same time everyone else does, so that you have access to a functioning hospital system if you need it.
Grace Assembly coronavirus mystery solved: Antibody tests linked mega cluster to 2 Wuhan tourists via CNY party and Life Church cluster in a world-first. “In what is likely a world first, contact tracers used serological tests – which are done on blood samples – to identify a married couple as the missing link between the clusters.”
So you think you’re about to be in a pandemic?
Chinese Battery Recycler Now Making Disinfectants for Coronavirus
Past Time to Tell the Public: “It Will Probably Go Pandemic, and We Should All Prepare Now”
A work in progress from me: Pandemic prep food ideas list
Getting ready for a pandemic is largely about preparing for possible shortages.
How Do You Keep China’s Economy Running with 750 Million in Quarantine?
At least one country is taking this seriously: Virus emergency blueprint: Australia pulls trigger on pandemic plan
Indonesia is not looking great, here:
Oh Indonesia what is you doing 🙈. Their health officials are either genuinely confused about the fact that SARS-COV-2 is the virus name & COVID-19 is the disease name, or they’re sowing confusion to maintain their “we’re COVID-19 free!” fiction. Either way, :facepalm: https://t.co/zJ6LXrD9OU
— jonstokes.(eth|com) (@jonst0kes) February 25, 2020
Updated case counts:
#Coronavirus UPDATE Feb 24 9PM EST
The current statistics for #China alone:
Of the 80,146 confirmed cases globally today
-77,658 cases are in China
-9,126 cases are severe
-2,666 patients have died
-27,354 have recovered1/6 #COVID2019 cases outside of #China & #US 👇🏾 pic.twitter.com/qavUJcJOna
— CEDR Digital Corps (@CEDRdigital) February 25, 2020
