Item scarcity with the emergence of a war with Russia

Conrad B - January 21, 2022

Scenarios

Hypothetically, if the USA were to go to war with Russia what would that mean for us as individuals and how can we prepare now?

If the war were to drag on for some time, would ammo and gun manufacturers not make things for civilians and those resources would be used for the government and war effort? Would we see limits on clothing and food in order to support the troops with car manufacturers  making planes like during WWII and driving up the prices for cars here even more?

One more question. From my history classes I vaguely remember that war=increase spending and work for the economy. Correct me if I’m wrong here but if many new jobs were created for a war effort would that help the economy and change the direction we are heading with inflation and all that or would it only drive us more in debt? I never took an economics class…

What do you predict we should do now to prepare?

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In this day and age of a global economy, I just don’t see any of the major players going to war.  It would be too disruptive of everyone’s economy.  If you note, since WWII, there have only been regional conflicts.  However, all this saber rattling does allow their militaries to grow and spend absurd amounts of money… all under the guise of security from our evil enemies.  And who wins?  The huge industrial complex does, at the expense of the little man.

 

So you think that Russia will just call back the 265,000+ troops near the Ukraine boarder and just say “Oh nevermind”?

I hope you are right, but it seems like quite the investment that they have made so far.

 

No, what I’m saying is the USA, nor NATO, will go to war over Ukraine.  At most, it will be another regional conflict, like all the others since WWII.  We didn’t go to war when Russia did the same in Crimea.  We are not the world’s police force, even though we often act like it.  It would be a different matter if they invaded a NATO country.

And I personally don’t think Russia will invade & take over all of Ukraine.  It will cost them dearly with all the sanctions & financial penalties the west will impose.  But Putin can be unpredictable & may be facing pressures we don’t understand.  

And as far as their investment, that is nothing.  They are no longer a world power, at least not financially.  By standing up to the west, and the US especially, Russia feels important.  It gives them prestige on the world stage.  That is the return on their investment.

 

Read this BBC article where they interviewed residents in both Russia and the Ukraine asking if they felt war was going to happen…they didn’t think it would happen

Having problems posting the link from my phone but if interested the article is called “Do Ukrainians and Russians believe a full scale war is possible?”

 

Thank you for your comments Redneck and EzlyAmuzzed. I need to make sure that I’m not just falling for the scare tactics news headlines and look deeper into what really is going on.

 

Conrad, I don’t know if we should be worried or not because I don’t know enough, however I found their opinion interesting.

As for shortages if it DID happen, I imagine fuel would be one.

 

Here’s the link to the news article mentioned by EzlyAmuzzed https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60090991

 

Thank you Carlotta for posting the link for me. My phone was misbehaving 

 

We’re not going to go to war over the Ukraine. NATO in the heart of Russia would be a bad idea, just rocking the boat. As was said last week, we would overlook a minor incursion. Or find a way to live with it. Maybe a slap on the hand. Poorly and indiscreetly phrased, but accurate. Whatever happens, I think it will mean more of a burden for the American taxpayer, not less.

Putin brought Russia back from weakness and irrelevance after the fall of the Soviet Union. Russia spent centuries trying to annex a warm-water port to have a link to the outside world, and ultimately got one in Odessa, in the Ukraine.  I don’t think Russia will or should give up those ports, and I don’t think it will tolerate NATO forces on its border. Russia has a dog in this fight; we do not. 

Russia is limiting the flow of natural gas through pipelines to Europe. Europe really needs the gas for heating. But that’s just politics for mortal stakes. You want our gas? Back off with the threat of NATO missiles on our border.

 

any regional conflict will cause supply problems with corn , wheat, iron, steel, and also fertilizer. If you read commodity end users and traders online , I think they are suffering from heart burn.