A collection of key developments in the fight against the Wuhan coronavirus (nCoV-2019), updated throughout the week for those who just want the signal and not the noise. If there’s something you think we should include, sound off in the comments thread attached to each week’s post.
Saturday, January 25
- [10:53 pm] The latest clinical reports and results of academic epidemiological models are at odds with what US public health authorities have been telling the public.
- [9:42 pm] Our full report on the latest developments.
- [9:42 pm] Our in-depth analysis of four academic models of the spread of the disease.
- [8:43 pm] The South China Morning Post is reporting case numbers over 2,000 total cases, with a larger but unknown number of infections among healthcare workers.
- [7:44 pm] Here’s our more detailed post dedicated to the latest news on the Wuhan virus, with discussion of its origins, the latest out of China itself, global spread, and trying to nail down key epidemiological parameters.
- [6:46 pm] We published a piece debunking the widely spread notion that the Wuhan virus is some sort of escaped bioweapon. It almost certainly is not.
- [2:57 pm] Genetic studies have confirmed that the 2019-nCoV strain originated in bats before traveling to humans through an animal intermediary.
- [2:57 pm] The CDC has evaluated as many as 63 potential cases in the USA, but so far the two cases in Seattle and Chicago remain the only two confirmed cases.
- [2:57 pm] The epidemic in Wuhan continues to escalate with over 1400 cases, as China has put over 46 million people under lockdown, banned private vehicle travel, sent over 1200 medics, and is building a second hospital, while the USA has announced it will evacuate US citizens by private jet.
- [2:57 pm] Elsewhere in China, intercity buses and trains have been shut down in Beijing, and closures of public places including schools, monuments, theaters, and public celebrations have been seen nationwide. Chairman Xi described the situation as “grave.”
- [2:57 pm] Major disagreement among scientists over the virus’s epidemiological properties continues, with no emerging consensus on the virus’s reproductive number or latency period.
Friday, January 24, 2020
- [01-24-2020, 5:49 pm] There are now 1125 confirmed cases and 41 deaths so far. Of these the vast majority were in Hubei province and only a handful were outside China. However, thousands of unconfirmed cases are currently backlogged in Wuhan’s overwhelmed hospitals, and case numbers have been growing exponentially day by day.
- [01-24-2020, 5:49 pm] There are only two confirmed cases in the United States, one in Seattle and one in Chicago. There are suspected cases in Texas, Los Angeles, and Michigan, and possibly other places.
- [01-24-2020, 5:49 pm] The very first known case of human-human transmission outside China was confirmed today.
