News roundup for Tue, Jun 8, 2021

6 Comments on News roundup for Tue, Jun 8, 2021
Can I travel to France if I'm vaccinated

US traffic deaths are soaring. There were over 38,000 motor-vehicle-related fatalities in 2020, and the trend is still going. The rise in these deaths occurred in the context of the lifting of social distancing mandates. Speeding is up, folks not wearing seat belts is up, and fatalities rose even as the number of crashes declined:

California’s ban on assault weapons has been found to be unconstitutional. The judge is allowing 30 days before his ruling comes into effect.

Yellen says to expect inflation through the end of the year:

We’ve mentioned this before but it’s worth mentioning again: the Hoover Dam is running short of water. This could be the worst water shortage it’s ever had. The water in Lake Mead is dropping one foot per week, with no end in sight. Arizona, California, and Nevada will have to begin progressive cutbacks soon.

Climate crises will take a big toll on global economies—G7 economies in particular. So far the G7 countries are not on track to meet goals made in the Paris Agreement.

The world has over 174.3 million COVID cases. The world has gained 2.4 million cases in a week, which is a significant drop from previous weeks. There have been nearly 3.8 million deaths in total. The US has over 34.2 million cases. Over 612,000 Americans have died. The US has gained nearly 8,900 new cases since yesterday–Florida is no longer reporting cases daily so this count is not accurate. There have been 212 deaths in the US in the last day. Deaths and new cases continue to decline. India has had over 2,100 deaths in the last day and brazil has had over 900. India gained over 87,000 cases in the last day. India’s case gain and daily deaths are decreasing significantly.

Americans can travel to France again, if fully vaccinated:

The reason we vaccinate for Chicken Pox and Measles is not because kids get a rash—it’s because as many as 1/1,000 can die from the infection. COVID has killed far more of the kids it infected than Chicken Pox ever did. There is a clear argument for vaccination for kids:

We’re getting more data on Long COVID and what people who have it are coping with over time—almost 1/5 report experiencing a degree of disability from the ailment:

Cases are rising in the UK again, and the Delta variant might be responsible:

Some good news—cases and deaths in India are plummeting:

A protein subunit vaccine could be coming soon—it’s a payload of spike protein. Novovax plans on filing for emergency authorization later this year, pending completion of its clinical trial.

Health care workers (HCW) in poorer countries are still massively under-vaccinated—they’re at huge risk for exposure, mortality, and morbidity from COVID. HCW are also leaving health care in droves. If we want to reverse this confluence of bad factors, vaccinating HCWs in these environments should be prioritized:

The Delta variant is bad news, and it might be causing more hospitalizations than other variants. But if you’re fully vaccinated, you can rest easier:

Stephanie Arnold | cosmicpixle

Stephanie Arnold is an advanced practice psychiatric nurse and a doctoral candidate in UA Tuscaloosa’s DNP program. Stephanie moonlights from time to time at UCLA teaching mental health nursing. She also likes making cold-process soap.

  • 6 Comments
    • Cia June 7, 2021

      Stephanie,

      You didn’t have chickenpox when you were growing up? Before the vaccine was introduced in 1995, there were four million cases a year in the US. One hundred deaths, half in adults, in whom it can be more serious, half in children. So death occurred in 0.025 out of a thousand. I had it at seven, mild, my daughter had it at almost two, mild, as it nearly always is. I was happy that she got it naturally. It fosters the healthy development of the immune system. This is an article that my friend Fou Yazbak wrote about it.

      http://www.whale.to/v/chickenpox_vaccine.html

      If Dr. Yamey was thinking of measles and mistakenly said chickenpox, 450 a year died of it in the US around 1960, out of three to four million cases a year. I had it at six. Everyone I have ever known my age or older had it. Intense, but by 1960 rarely serious. Dr. Peter Aaby did a study in Senegal which showed that in the 90% of children who recovered from measles there, mortality in subsequent years was only one-fifth what it was in children who did not have natural measles.

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      • Stephanie ArnoldContributor Cia June 8, 2021

        At least 1/1,000 children die from measles, and many more have fallout from severe encephalitis. Chicken pox can infect the brain, too, and although it’s not as deadly as measles, it’s an illness worth preventing. There’s a reason we vaccinate for these diseases, and COVID is more dangerous than either. Those who suffer natural measles infection, especially when very young, are at risk (1/1,000) for developing panencephalitis later in life. 

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      • Cia Stephanie Arnold June 8, 2021

        Not in developed countries. In developed countries well-nourished children past early infancy are at very low risk of a serious or fatal case of measles. In 1960, there was less than one death in 10,000 cases of measles. SSPE only started to be registered in the late ‘60s, when it occurred very rarely, almost the proverbial one in a million. Now it has become more common, especially in babies less than one year old, who are not protected by the antibodies of their mothers’ having had natural measles.

        https://www.cdc.gov/measles/symptoms/complications.html

        Dr. Alexander Langmuir wrote in 1963 about measles as a health problem.  He said it really wasn’t one, but he wanted to develop a vaccine for the challenge of it, because, like Mt. Everest, it was there.

        https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.52.Suppl_2.1

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      • Cia Cia June 8, 2021

        That’s “The Importance of Measles as a Health Problem,” with tables showing the extremely low mortality from measles in different age groups, low in all.

        Children under one are not vaxxed with MMR, but that age group is at the greatest (low) risk of SPPE. It would be better to let measles come back for its health benefits and in a generation babies would once again benefit from their mothers’ antibodies.

        Peter Aaby “Low Mortality after Mild Measles Infection…”, Vaccine 2002. The Children in Senegal who recovered from natural measles had only one-fifth the mortality in the subsequent four years had only one-fifth the mortality of those who either didn’t get measles or got the measles vaccine. Natural measles offers excellent training for the developing immune system, ideally between three and ten years old.

        https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12443670/

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      • más picante Cia June 9, 2021

        Thanks Cia.  I would add to this that the vaccines themselves are not without risk, and can cause things like myocarditis, encephalitis, and death.  Without going too far down the rabbit hole, over 4800 deaths have been reported to the VAERS system, along with far, far more non-deadly side effects.  VAERS is notorious for only capturing a very small percentage of these effects.  Of course correlation != causation, which is basically the excuse they’re running with to explain these numbers.  I’m sure they’re all just a coincidence.  

        https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html

        Per that link, the CDC is admittedly monitoring increased VAERS reports of myocarditis and pericarditis in adolescents and young adults after the MRNA vaccines, for example, so obviously they take VAERS reports seriously even while talking out of both sides of their mouth.    

        Not even Pfizer (which is profit-motivated) is claiming Covid is a significant risk to children, they’re using the excuse that it helps stop transmission:

        The CDC reports a grand total of 309 deaths in the 1-17 age group since this pandemic began:

        https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

        The risk to healthy young children for Covid is infinitesimal, why purposely gamble with the side effects of the vaccine? The purpose of a vaccine is not only to be effective, but also safe.  Everyone should weigh the pros and cons of getting one.  If you’re in a high risk group, absolutely, go for it.  The risks of Covid outweigh the risk of the vaccine.  If you’re not in a high risk group, particularly young people, the risk of the vaccine is far higher than the disease itself.  

        It just amazes me that people are told to consult with their doctors before taking fish oil supplements or starting an exercise program, but these vaccines, which are not FDA approved, are given out for free at baseball games.  

        Disclaimer: I got the J&J shot myself back in April.  No problems.  Highly recommend that one if you’re in the market.  

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      • 5231HG más picante June 11, 2021

        According to the CDC data (admittedly incomplete, but serving as a source of verifiable data), the chances of dying after getting a Covid vaccine is 0.0017% (link). Also according to the CDC, the chances of dying from complications related to pregnancy & childbirth is 0.0173% (link).

        It is reasonable to conclude that those truly risk-averse to the fatal consequences of an elective covid vaccine would be more risk-averse to the fatal consequences of elective reproduction, as it is ten times more fatal.

        With regard to myocarditis specifically, until the CDC deigns to give us mere mortals actual hard numbers, we can still find other sources. Using the numbers from The Times of Israel (link) the probability of myocarditis within 30 days of a covid vaccine is 0.0022%, or 0.0011% if you discount patients with preexisting conditions. This probability is for any severity of myocarditis. In that same article, there was 1 death linked to myocarditis (preexisting conditions not reported) in proximity of a covid vaccine, at a probability of 0.00002%.

        In other words, the probability of dying from any complication related to a covid vaccine in the US is 85x higher than the probability of an Israeli dying from myocarditis in proximity to receiving a covid vaccine, regardless of preexisting conditions. Further, the chances of an unvaccinated child in the US dying from covid-related (link) complications is 0.0011%.

        I’m sure better numbers will be published at some point, but these are what we have to draw our conclusions from right now. Being risk-averse requires doing math sometimes.

        For scale, the chance of being struck by lightning is 0.0002% (link).

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