News roundup for Tue, Jul 20, 2021

5 Comments on News roundup for Tue, Jul 20, 2021
Are farmers more at risk at risk from extreme heat

The 2021 US fire season is already worse than last year in number of acres burned. The difference so far between the years is that this year’s fires have been in more sparsely populated areas. 2021 still does not compare to the devastation of the fires during 2019, but summer has only just begun:

2021 vs 2020 wildfire extent, from CAL FIRE (through July 11) from collapse

Heat-related work injuries are poorly surveyed. It’s not just outdoor workers at risk from extreme heat—indoor workers in warehouses and manufacturing are also at risk. Heat-related injuries aren’t limited to heat stroke. Excess heat is probably also responsible for fatigue and distraction leading to an increase in all-cause injuries to exposed workers.

Free VPNs offered as a humanitarian measure are keeping over 1 million Cubans online. Cuba has cut access to online social media and messaging platforms.

The modeling done nearly 50 years ago in The Limits to Growth is still eerily accurate. As the authors noted then, infinite growth on a finite planet is not possible. Additional studies since that time indicate that many natural resources fueling the global economy could top out and sputter in the next decade or so. The difference between a hard and soft landing for the global population is what we chose to do about sustainability now.

Speaking of resource depletion and population impacts—the UN warns that water scarcity and drought could imperil over 130 countries secondary to climate-change induced warming. Just this week there were protests in Iran over water scarcity:

A state in India is proposing a voluntary 2-child policy to help reduce overpopulation. Financial incentives with be offered to families that opt for voluntary sterilization.

The world has nearly 191.7 million COVID cases. The world has gained 3.7 million cases in the last week. There have been over 4.1 million deaths in total. The US has a cumulative 35 million cases. Nearly 625,000 Americans have died. The US has gained about 15,700 new cases since yesterday, which is double the case gain compared to last week. There have been 66 deaths reported in the US in the last day—as deaths are a lagging indicator I expect this number to rise significantly in the next few weeks. The UK, Indonesia, India, and Iran have the highest number of new cases per day.  Delta is the variant driving most pandemic growth now.

Los Angeles County, home to more than 10 million people, has reinstated an indoor mask mandate regardless of vaccination status. Sheriff Villanueva says he won’t enforce it:

It is imperative to furnish African countries with COVID vaccines as fast as countries around the globe can distribute them. The inequity in vaccine distribution is clearly visible:

Delta is spreading quickly. Back-of-the-envelope math says the R for Delta is over 1.5, which means most countries don’t have a high enough vaccination rate to fight it without first battling large surges of cases.

Vaccines (particularly mRNA) seem to be keeping deaths low even in the face of rising cases:

The WHO is backtracking on its stance on the possibility of a lab leak origin for the pandemic virus—The WHO is asking once again for China to be transparent with data it has requested. Tedros says ruling out a lab leak origin in the absence of data was premature.

Olympic Athletes are turning up COVID+ in Japan—some are having to pull out of competition:

Boris Johnson is isolating after exposure—meanwhile, the UK is opening up despite variant-driven case rise:

Stephanie Arnold | cosmicpixle

Stephanie Arnold is an advanced practice psychiatric nurse and a doctoral candidate in UA Tuscaloosa’s DNP program. Stephanie moonlights from time to time at UCLA teaching mental health nursing. She also likes making cold-process soap.

  • 5 Comments
    • Cia July 21, 2021

      Stephanie,

      I enjoy these links you put up, look forward to Tuesday’s and Fridays, and spend hours reading them. I appreciate the effort you put into this!

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      • Stephanie ArnoldContributor Cia July 21, 2021

        I’m earnestly glad to be of help. I hope to get salient info to people. There’s a lot of noise out there. Thank you for being a thoughtful poster, too. Community processing of the material adds depth to understanding. 🙂 

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    • Karl Winterling July 22, 2021

      Infection rates are probably much higher than what’s being reported because the case spikes are showing up in the population that gets tested regularly. Even if we get to a point where we have vaccine-induced herd immunity (and we aren’t there yet), there would still be a “final wave” where the virus burns itself out.

      Right now, we’re looking at possible scenarios:

      1. Tons of people get vaccinated in the coming weeks, which pushes hospitalizations downward significantly.
      2. No big increase in vaccinations, hospitalizations and deaths peak in October or November and are lower than last winter’s surge.
      3. No big increase in vaccinations, hospitalizations and deaths peak in August or September and are lower than last winter.
      4. There’s a possibility the wave could turn out significantly better or significantly worse than what models say.
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      • Stephanie ArnoldContributor Karl Winterling July 22, 2021

        Agree. I think the 4th surge could surprise people in its size. I’m seeing declining numbers of folks wanting vaccines. Delta is also really very transmissible and there are a LOT of breakthrough infections going unrecognized. Winter might be a bad time for the US (again).

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      • Cia Stephanie Arnold July 22, 2021

        I agree that it may become very large, with many deaths, most in the unvaxxed, some in the vaxxed. I just read a new article at Your Local Epidemiologist (thank you, Stephanie, for introducing me to that site!) it was on how to persuade different groups of the unvaxxed.

        It recommended telling those concerned about side effects, which is most people, that only 0.5% experience a severe reaction. First, that much is true. A not inconsiderable number experience a fatal reaction, from too vigorous of an immuneby e response to the vaccine, which is designed to cause inflammation to cause antibodies to be created. That was supposed to be a response which would reassure everyone about vaccine safety. But that’s one in two hundred people. Meaning that severe reactions are not uncommon.

        I really can’t think of a good answer to that. Chances are, you’ll do fine. But many do not. 

        Both my daughter and I are now fully Pfizer vaccinated. I’m glad we did it. But I continue to be afraid because of Delta and what might come next. 

        it looks as though 13% continue to be hardcore refusers and 12% still hesitant but possibly persuadable. But the danger is real. Look at VAERS reports on adverse reactions, including deaths. Read the details of the reports before saying they are fraudulent. The committee of CDC and FDA professionals used VAERS reports ton myocarditis in a couple hundred young men to conclude that they needed to warn that this rare vaccine reaction really could occur.

        I don’t know what the answer is. I’m vaxxed (but still vaccine wary), still mask up every time I go out and wash my hands as soon as I get home. I’m on Team Vax. But we have to be honest about vaccine injury, even death. Ultimately I think it’s admirable to take the chance and get vaxxed because that is what is best for society, for the world. But life is very hard forever for the vaccine-injured.

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