News roundup for Fri, Apr 16, 2021

11 Comments on News roundup for Fri, Apr 16, 2021

The chip shortage is serious business, and the US needs to decouple its supply chain from China if it wants to stay competitive and be free from the kind of supply and demand shocks that we’re currently facing. The chip shortage could last into 2023. The US will be building more of its own factories to address this, but it will take years to meet the capacity we need.

Russian saber rattling continues as the military buildup on Ukraine’s border steadily increases. Kremlin mouthpieces RT and Sputnik are pushing the narrative of inevitable confrontation between the US and Russia in the form of widespread cyber warfare, utilities blackouts, and internet blackouts. The DNI has acknowledged the reality of these dangers in its hot-of-the-press Annual Threat Assessment (ATA). The White House issued Executive Orders today regarding banks and the Russian ruble and declared a National Emergency:

One of the biggest threats identified in the DNI’s ATA is the economic impact to the US and the globe by the pandemic. They note that certain state actors (Russia, China) will jump to take advantage of the crisis. Inequality in vaccine distribution is also a threat in that it creates the grounds for this virus to resurge or become endemic.

Consumer prices are jumping. The Central Bank expects the jump to be transient, but will act if inflation takes hold.

The US Corn Belt has had 1/3 of its topsoil stripped away. Soil erosions is a known problem, but satellite technology is helping us quantify it. Sustainable farming practices can save soil, but they’re not short-term profit drivers.

Texas almost went dark again because it was *slightly* warmer than ERCOT anticipated (most of the state was in the mid-60s). Who knew that a mild day could be such a threat…

Super-white paint made with barium sulfate could help cool the earth by reflecting the sun’s rays. It’s so effective, it can help cool a building. This is relevant to the prepping community because it can help to cool without expensive cooling systems.

The world has over 139.6 million COVID cases.  The world has gained over 5.1 million cases in a week. There have been nearly 3 million deaths in total. The US has over 32.2 million cases. Over 578,000 Americans have died. There have been 876 deaths in the last 24 hours in the US. The US gained over 71,000 new cases in the last day. Brazil is leading the globe in daily deaths, with over 3,700 in the last day. India is now leading the world in daily case gain, with a whopping 216,000 cases in the last day.

Bhutan vaccinated practically its entire population in two weeks. There are benefits to being a relatively small nation. Israel has also vaccinated most of its population, and it looks like it’s defeating the pandemic by doing so:

Australia plans to keep its borders closed for much of the year to prevent a rise in COVID cases. This is a tough blow to its tourism industry and to international students. About 1.4 million people are fully vaccinated in Australia, which is a mere 5%.

The US is pausing the use of the J&J COVID vaccine to investigate rare reports of clotting. These clots are occurring at a rate of about 1 in 250,000 people, but occur more often in women of child-bearing age. The EU is halting the purchase and use of all adenovirus-backbone COVID vaccines. This is all a terrible blow to vaccine confidence–the reality is that COVID kills about 1/100 people:

Here’s a deep-dive on the risks:

We’ve got a glut of PPE in the US now, so it’s time for hospitals to stop reusing masks.

The health care system in Brazil is collapsing from the pandemic burden:

The boosters are coming:

Stephanie Arnold | cosmicpixle

Stephanie Arnold is an advanced practice psychiatric nurse and a doctoral candidate in UA Tuscaloosa’s DNP program. Stephanie moonlights from time to time at UCLA teaching mental health nursing. She also likes making cold-process soap.

  • 11 Comments
    • Karl Winterling April 15, 2021

      The concern is that the clotting risk is 1 in 250,000 in women of child-bearing age, which is probably concerning because it’s the type of safety issue that comes up in long-term clinical trials after the 30,000 participant trials for safety and efficacy. My guess is they want to be really sure what the actual incidence is (could be 1 in 25,000 for women of child-bearing age with no cases in the 30,000 Phase 3 trial) and really sure about what the incidence is in other groups, like men under 50.

      Still, the way the FDA/CDC reacted was another PR blunder and could have been handled better.

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      • más picante Karl Winterling April 16, 2021

        The FDA/CDC has seemingly ignored the statistical irrelevant risks associated with the mRNA vaccines.   VAERS has been showing tens of thousands of incidents including something in the area of 1.5k deaths.  Now, it’s a self-reporting system and causation has not been established – but then, same thing with the adenovirus vaccines.  Do Pfier and/or Moderna have a preferential relationship with the  FDA, or am I just being conspiratorial?  

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      • Karl Winterling más picante April 16, 2021

        I think the specific concern about J&J is that all reported clots were in women of childbearing age and it was confirmed that they’d received the vaccine within 3 weeks. VAERS is a monitoring system, so the data are not cleaned (like removing duplicate reports, etc.) and put in a form that is suitable for analysis.

        I really don’t think the J&J pause was warranted given that we’re in an emergency still.

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      • Sbesch Karl Winterling April 16, 2021

        Agreed, Karl – the figures I’ve seen on J&J actually said 6 identified clot reactions in 6.8 million doses, so (literally) a one-in-a-million likelihood for that vaccine (compared to a much higher risk from COVID – even for folks without complicating factors).  I think a warning for that target group was warranted, but not a full pause on using the vaccine for demographics with zero demonstrated reactions (e.g., men).

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    • Lara B April 17, 2021

      Stephanie, I just want to say thanks for the blog.  There is the background noise of the news, but then there is the blog … Thank you for taking the time to put it together.

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      • Stephanie ArnoldContributor Lara B April 17, 2021

        You’re very welcome, Lara! My hope is that lifting the salient above the noise will help folks. That’s the aim. 

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    • Jessica Sanders April 18, 2021

      Thank you for the weekly news roundups and for educating me about things to watch out for and be aware of. Sure is a crazy time we live in. Can I ask a question here for anyone to answer? I’m really wanting to get the Covid-19 vaccine, but my family members have their concerns about the long term side effects of it and are discouraging me from getting it. How do I lovingly tell them that it is safe and fine? I think it will be 5-10 years before they get it because they want to see that it’s been tested and no weird side effects happen. 

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      • Stephanie ArnoldContributor Jessica Sanders April 18, 2021

        Hi Jessica, 

        There are two links at the bottom of the comments section from the 13th that you might find helpful, and a little discussion about why these articles are the most helpful. The long-term sequelae of the vaccines simply cannot be worse than an immediate-term ~1/100 risk of death from the virus. Worst-case scenario with these vaccines (and this is exaggerated) will be a 1/100,000 risk of a mortality/morbidity event. Also, adverse events from vaccines are not contagious, but the actual infection is. There WILL be long-term sequelae from infections people survive, and they’re not going to be pretty (arrhythmias, dementias, Parkinson’s, kidney failure, etc.). There is simply no comparison between the two. Anyway, take a look at the links and let me know if you think they’ll help 🙂

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      • Stephanie ArnoldContributor Jessica Sanders April 19, 2021

        Also, quoting contributor Ari: “Now, we have long term safety data. The earliest cohorts to receive COVID-19 vaccines have been observed for over a year, and they haven’t seen any long term side effects.”

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      • @Stephanie Arnold thank you for the links and resources. I’m sold and would like to get it, but after showing all this evidence to a member of my family they still aren’t convinced and think that the vaccines are dangerous and need to be studied for over 20 years before they will feel safe using them. Now I need to figure out how to keep myself safe vs keeping the peace in my family. 

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      • My understanding is that Moderna and BioNTech have trialed mRNA vaccines in humans since 2010 and haven’t encountered long-term adverse side effects people are worried about. The early mRNA vaccines for rare diseases couldn’t get approval because the risk of the disease was much lower (much lower than a 1/100 chance of death) than the risk of possible adverse effects (let’s guess at maybe 1 in 100,000). In the last 3-4 years, companies tested mRNA vaccines in humans specifically for infectious diseases like flu, Zika, and rabies. Researchers have tested mRNA vaccines in animals since the 1990s.

        So far, we haven’t noticed specific long-term side effects associated with mRNA vaccines or “weird” side effects associated with mRNA delivery in particular.

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