This may not be a popular opinion (and I don’t propose that it applies to folks with genuinely immunocompromised conditions), but no one should be surprised that seasonal respiratory illnesses are seeing a larger-than-normal peak this year.  When a large segment of a population wears masks regularly for 2-3 years, those diseases don’t simply disappear, they just burn at lower rates and wait for the appearance of more hosts.  Take the masks off, and many of the cases that would normally have been experienced across the preceding 2-3 seasons are simply going to appear in one season – and the infected people will likely have decreased immune capacity due to their avoidance of challenges to their immune systems in the interim.  So wearing a mask when you’re healthy is essentially delaying the inevitable.  Eat right, exercise, get good sleep, sunshine, and fresh air, and let your body build and maintain its immune capacity by giving it the opportunity to flex its muscles at a natural pace.  Trying to go 5-10 years without being exposed to any pathogen is a recipe for disaster, in the long run.  Again, JMHO – I’m not not claiming to possess any medical expertise.

In the article about “food and water safety when the power goes out” – I’m always disappointed when anyone suggests storing bleach for emergency water purification. Bleach degrades fairly quickly and may not render water safe to drink when needed most. Store some calcium hypochlorite powder (“pool shock”) instead. It’s inexpensive and, in powder form, it has an indefinite shelf life. A 1lb bag can purify 10,000 gallons of water. Calcium Hypochlorite Is Better Than Bleach To Disinfect Water

I just thought there was a small irony in employing a free/renewable energy source to bus huge volumes of petroleum around the globe.

Supertankers with sails mounted seems like an almost comical reversal of the “Tesla plugged into the portable gas-powered generator” image we’ve all seen. 🙂

“Do you really need five credit cards? See if you can pay off and close one out.” While I wholeheartedly agree with the idea of reducing your debt level, I’d check with a financial advisor before closing any credit card accounts.  Your credit score is largely determined by the proportion of your outstanding balance to your available balance. Closing a credit card account reduces your available balance, so that computation would suddenly make it look like you’re closer to being “maxed out”, even though your overall debt total is lower.  By all means, pay off your credit cards, but consider leaving the account open and just keeping the unused card in a secure location to avoid taking a hit to your score (and to have more funds available for a future emergency, if needed).

One of the things I like about the Blog is that it brings to light issues that could pose potential risks, but also explains why some things circulating in the mass media may not necessarily be cause for concern.  In that spirit, I’d like to pass along this outstanding explanation of the Polio situation in the UK.  If the press picks up the story and attempts to sensationalize it, knowing the details can prevent unnecessary stress. 

Gun homicides declined during the AWB, but gun control proponents either fail to disclose (or aren’t even aware themselves) that gun homicides were already on a 20 year pattern of decline at that time, and maintained essentially the same downward trajectory during the AWB.  So, yeah, they declined during the ban, but the decline showed no statistical relation to the AWB at all.  There are a lot of statistics and analyses available from reputable sources (including JAMA and even the DOJ of an anti-2A administration – all linked in the article below) that demonstrate the AWB had no demonstrable effect when examined under competent statistical analysis: https://fee.org/articles/studies-find-no-evidence-that-assault-weapon-bans-reduce-homicide-rates/

Excellent point.  Russia is shooting themselves in the foot in so many ways with this aggression.  The countries that find alternatives to products they previously purchased from Russia will have no incentive to *ever* return to “business as usual” with them when this is over.  It seems Putin really underestimated the ramifications of his actions this time.

Yes, but I can’t imagine they could function very long without the constant inflow of  materials the US companies were shipping to their facilities.  They can cook food at the McDonald’s, but it won’t be McDonald’s food.  They can make shoes at the Adidas factory, but they won’t be Adidas shoes.  And most of the auto manufacturing equipment is probably so specialized to work with specific parts that it would be totally useless to try using it to build a different type of car.

Another excellent roundup, Stephanie – thanks!  One suggestion that comes to mind (or this may already be a thing and I’m just unaware of how to do it).  I only get notified of new comments if I’ve left a comment myself.  I’d like to be able to click a button to “subscribe” to a blog post so I get notified of new comments.  The comments often provide additional insights and perspectives from around the world, and I find that sharing of information valuable, but don’t often remember to keep coming back to previous blog entries to (manually) check for new comments.  Having them delivered to my email (with a link to return to that blog post to review or join in the discussion) would be great.  I think it would really increase the level of interaction across the community.  Just an idea…

This prospect does present some unique challenges.  If the collapse were due to a seismic event, rescue resources might be stretched thin and you might have to shelter in place within your vehicle for some time (possibly during an adverse weather event).  Could you access the emergency supplies you keep in your vehicle kit without exiting the vehicle (or if your trunk lid was crunched and wouldn’t open)?  An interesting thought experiment.

Nice list, as always, Brown Fox.  Another recommendation I’d add for weather-related emergencies would be a weather alert radio.  Lots of lists include a radio that picks up weather bands, but they’re only effective if you’re actively monitoring those bands (and who stays awake all night to do that?).  If you live anywhere that severe weather could threaten you and your family, a radio with an effective alert system (i.e., that will wake you up in the middle of the night if a tornado is approaching) is critical.  I personally like the Sangean CL-100 – it’s not cheap, but it has important programming features that let you dial alerts in for your immediate area and screen out false alarms (the biggest reason people often turn off their alert systems – like pulling the batteries from their smoke detectors).  It’s the best $60 you’ll ever spend if it gives you enough warning to get to your storm shelter or safe room.

Hi Stephanie – at what point would it make sense to start tracking COVID stats simply as a “percentage of deaths per identified cases”? It seems a foregone conclusion that COVID will become endemic, and nobody’s still reporting total counts for influenza infection rates and deaths rates since the first reported case of the flu way-back-when. The case counts and death counts will surely just continue to rise – to the point that the numbers no longer represent any useful metric gauging the actual danger posed by the disease. On the other hand, as more cases (proportionally) arise within vaccinated populations and treatments become more effective, the mortality rate of the disease should steadily decrease until it’s on par (or even below, if we’re lucky) that of the flu. But, if we never make the transition away from simply tracking total counts for infections and deaths, we may not even recognize when we’ve reached that point. If the infection rates continue to rise, does it really matter that much if the mortality rate is simultaneously plummeting? If another variant that’s more deadly gets a foothold, mortality rates might climb astronomically even if overall infection rates are declining at that time. Adding a reference to mortality rates into your bi-weekly recap of the stats might prove incredibly useful in either case (tempering fear and/or warning of a novel risk). Just a suggestion. I appreciate the great work you do with these blog posts – they’re the best one-stop-shop for “preparedness awareness” anywhere on the web!

Great thoughts, as usual, Brown Fox.  Some additional suggestions for those living in tornado-prone areas (or earthquake zones, or near airports, etc.): Get some advanced medical training (beyond the Red Cross “apply pressure and call 911” version).  Wilderness Medical Associates is one educational resource that comes to mind – they teach how to treat common traumatic injuries and health crises when professional medical services are more than 2 hours away.  In the wake of a large-scale incident, emergency responders are going to be delayed in their response or unable to respond altogether (due to sheer number of casualties, debris blocking roadways, etc.).  You may be the only person in your family (and one of few on your block) with the skills to help injured people and significantly extend the length of time they can safely wait for professional medical attention. Stock a special “mass casualty kit” in a secure location (somewhere it won’t get blown away if your house is hit by the tornado) with lots of trauma gear:  gauze, tape, sam splints, ace wraps, tourniquets, NPAs, wound wash/bottled water, and mylar blankets, so you can carry it when checking on neighbors after a large scale event.  But it’s not enough to have it on hand – you need to know how to use it effectively. See if your local government offers CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) training (https://www.ready.gov/cert).  I’d been prepping for years and considered myself pretty knowledgeable, but I still learned a lot in my local CERT class a couple of years ago.  A lot of the class focuses on bridges the gap between your personal preparedness and how you can help others in your immediate area after an event (including interfacing with and assisting professional first responders).  Definitely worthwhile, even if you already know a lot about self-reliance.

Hey Stephanie – appreciate the fine work in your recap, as always.  I’m subscribed to an analytical email series called “Doomberg”.  I don’t even remember how I came to be signed up for it (it’s entirely likely you suggested it here in the roundup at some point in the past).  They posted an interesting analysis of how tightening of the natural gas/fertilizer supplies had the potential to brick entire fleets of diesel powered trucks (no DEF fluid for their engines, which are intentionally designed to shut down if they don’t have DEF – so, horrible supply chain woes).  Australia seems to be in particular peril, but I’d imagine the scope extends well beyond that.  Here’s a excerpt from today’s post to provide some additional background info.  Might be worth tracking the related developments here in the roundup. (link: https://doomberg.substack.com/p/how-to-brick-an-entire-economy) “Mr. Clark went on to warn of the dire consequences that Australia risks suffering in as soon as a few weeks: ‘I had a member call the other day. They’ve got 250 prime movers. So they’re a big organisation, a lot of their fuel they buy in bulk — they are basically out of AdBlue next week. If this is not solved by then, then we have a major problem. So you’re not got anything getting delivered to supermarkets, you’ve got power not being generated. In South Australia, you’ve got tractors that can’t harvest, you’ve got hospitals that don’t have back-up generators, all this sort of thing. So it’s a major problem, if it doesn’t get solved.’ Until recently, Australia imported nearly 80% of its urea from China. A few weeks ago, China banned the exports of urea to keep homegrown fertilizer prices under control. We’ve previously highlighted ongoing trade tensions between the two countries, and although there’s no evidence China’s urea export ban was specifically targeted at Australia, there’s no denying the critical blow China’s move has delivered to the land Down Under. An updated report published Monday indicates widespread panic buying of DEF is underway, further exacerbating the crisis and accelerating the potential day of reckoning.”

Thanks, Henry.  It might be counterintuitive, but I think the best way to keep a vehicle around for a long time is to start with a really old vehicle.  Anything from the 80s or later was really designed to become obsolete, while the older stuff was made to last.  My Bronco has been a labor of love for many years.  There are times I get a new upgrade kit and I’m excited that I “get” to work on it.  Other times, something might break at an inconvenient time and it can be a real PITA that I “have” to work on it.  But it’s basically put together with such simple components that repairing and replacing parts is just a matter of investing a little time.  It’s very cost-effective if you can do the work yourself – not so much if you need to pay others to do it for you (finding a decent mechanic that still knows how to tune a carburetor can be a real challenge these days). I drop a few hundred dollars into it for a medium-sized repair or upgrade once every year or two and it just keeps chugging along.   Way cheaper than having a car payment for the past 25 years. It doesn’t hurt that there are multiple sources of OEM and aftermarket parts specifically for the Early Broncos (they were essentially unchanged for 10 years of their production run and shared several parts with other Ford vehicles during their run).  So I guess I should have said, “start with a really old vehicle that still has a fan base large enough to ensure parts support”.  🙂 Oh, and I’m not sure how many miles it has on it.  In all the years I’ve had it, the speedometer/odometer has never worked.  😀

I drive a ’69 Bronco – had it for 25 years now.  It doesn’t require an expensive digitally encode key/fob for entry.  It doesn’t ring, ding, buzz, or chime at me 50 times a day.  It doesn’t try to steer me back into lanes I’m trying to leave.  It doesn’t decide not to brake when I choose to brake and it doesn’t decide to brake when I choose not to brake.  There are no electronic black boxes under the hood whose failure can completely disable the engine (and require an expensive visit to a specialized repair technician for replacement).  There are no automatic software updates that can surreptitiously downgrade my engine performance.  It lacks every “advancement” that plagues the drivers of modern vehicles.  When something does go wrong, there’s a 90% chance I can get home with a judicious application of vice grips and duct tape.  I’ll probably drive it until I’m too old to drive – can’t imagine converting to a vehicle that thinks it knows what I need better than I do (and those behaviors only gets worse with every new model year).  #OldManRant

The figures I’ve seen describing the vaccine efficacy dropping to 80%, or 60%, or whatever, related to “breakout infections” (i.e., just symptomatic infections). The last time I dug into the data, the protection against death was still as high as it was immediately after the initial completion of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccinations. I interpreted those results to mean the short-lived “kill it as soon as it shows up” immune cells in the blood were waning after several months (which is normal), but the long term “I’ll remember this bug for the rest of your life, it just takes me a little longer to mobilize, so you might feel it a little before I ramp up enough to kill it off” immune cells coming from the marrow were still present and effective. That’s just a semi-educated laymen’s interpretation, of course. If it’s (relatively) accurate, an endemic COVID bug (which seems inevitable at this point) would become much like the seasonal flu – vaccinated/previously infected people might get sick, but would not be more likely to die from it anymore than they would be from the seasonal flu.

Couldn’t agree more, Gideon.  Reminds me of another of my favorite quotes: “The purpose of fear is to warn you of danger, not to make you afraid of it.”

“Pfizer said there were six hospitalizations and zero deaths out of the 607 trial participants who received the pill in combination with the HIV drug within five days of symptom onset. That compares with 41 hospitalizations and 10 deaths out of the 612 people who received a placebo.” When you’re lucky enough to get into a trial for what many would describe as a “miracle drug”, but unlucky enough to get assigned to the group that gets the placebo instead of the drug.  🙁