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Reply to: Inflation preparedness Posted December 7, 2021

(cont’d…) Where can I put my 401K? TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities): These are U.S. Treasury bonds that are adjusted for inflation every 6 months. This isn’t a perfect way to protect your money from inflation, but I would say your money will be 50% protected. I own TIPs. Paper Gold: Most ETFs and mutual funds don’t buy physical gold; they buy a contract for gold to be delivered at a future date (called futures or options). The problem is, there are 100x more in contracts than there is physical gold to back it all up. So this is one way to safeguard your money, but a bad one if there is a severe economic crisis (like hyper-inflation). I own some paper gold. Gold Mining Companies: Companies that are sitting on piles of gold will be worth more if hyper-inflation occurs (assuming the government doesn’t take over the mine). Oil Companies: Oil companies used to be a good way to protect yourself against inflation. I stay clear of them now though, because of the uncertainty around Peak Oil. Swiss Francs: The Swiss had a front row seat to the German and Austrian hyper-inflation before WW2. As a result, of all currencies that exist today, the Swiss franc has retained it’s value the best over the past 120 years. I own swiss francs. Consumer Discretionary Stocks: People will still want diapers, toilet paper, toothpaste, and soap if hyper-inflation hits. Agricultural Stocks: I don’t own any of these, but people still have to eat in a crisis. Sources for the entire thing: When Money Dies by Adam Fergusson Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises. 6th Edition. By Charles P. Kindleberger The Great Depression. By Charles P. Kindleberger Devil Take the Hindmost. By Edward Chancellor. Von Mises Institute.

Reply to: Inflation preparedness Posted December 7, 2021

(cont’d…) The Goal: Diversification & Tolerable Worst-Case Scenarios The first thing I would emphasize is that I believe strongly in diversification (in fact, this is probably the most important lesson learned from a degree in finance). So I would recommend that readers apply several of the suggestions below, rather than pursuing one single recommendation in the extreme. I would also state that our goal is not ‘preparing for a financial doomsday next week’. Our goal is to protect ourselves from hyper-inflation triggered crises, while heading toward a pleasant retirement if our fears of a crisis are not realized. I therefore suggest that you apply these recommendations to atmost 10% of your financial worth. Ways to store your money in case of hyper-inflation I am often asked, “So what CAN you put money into if we’re in a giant bubble and the currency collapses?” Here’s everything I’ve found on the subject: Pantry (or Inventory): Stock a pantry. In a world of rising prices, buying stuff early always makes sense. In fact, buying ANYTHING that will retain its value makes sense. If you run a business that sells essentials (i.e. heating oil, toilet paper, toothpaste), that inventory is a good thing to have your money in if there is a crisis. Property: Up until the Industrial Revolution, land was the dominant financial asset. It’s worth is strongly influenced by population growth as well as mortgage rates, but it’s not a bad way to invest your money. Remember, a landlord can always tell you to leave, but if you own your property that will never be a problem. Income Generating Businesses: There will always be demand for certain services. So if you own (or run) a business that satisfies a non-discretionary consumer need (i.e. electrician, plumber, dentist, farming, auto mechanic, propane delivery, etc.) you should do well in a hyper-inflationary scenario. Similarly, if your business has inventory (i.e. of food, auto parts, propane, ammunition, etc.) the value of that inventory protects you from hyper-inflation as well. Precious Metals stored in a bank lockbox: You can buy gold and store it in a bank lockbox (although most banks don’t want to hold your gold and they may not insure it). Negatives – Lockboxes: I don’t recommend storing your gold at a bank because the bank will probably be closed if hyperinflation hits. Most governments will declare bank holidays, which makes this an unreliable place to store your valuables. Negatives – Bars: Don’t buy gold bars or silver bars. Professionals will require someone to ‘assay’ the bar before they will buy it back from you. Stick with buying coins from a mint. The market for U.S. minted gold and silver coins is usually the largest. Negatives – Government Confiscation (Executive Order 6102): The U.S. confiscated gold from bank vaults in 1933, so the federal government could theoretically do this again. In practice though, the U.S. government only seized the gold from the BIG deposits held by financial institutions, corporations, and the super-wealthy… the FBI didn’t show up at middle-class houses to search for gold. Gold jewelry was also never sought by the U.S. government, and there was an exemption for every citizen to own up to 4 oz of gold (~$10,000 in today’s prices). Precious Metals with physical storage: This option works well if you own your property, you have a heavy safe, and you are armed. Bullion coins are the easiest to verify authenticity (so don’t go buying gold or silver bars), although bars have been sold out on distributor websites for years… which makes me think there are a LOT of people stockpiling precious metals. Negatives – OpSec: This is not a good option if you or your family will publicize how much gold you keep in your house. Negatives – Home Defense: If you are not armed, sitting on a pile of gold is one way to attract lots of unwanted violent attention. Foreign Currency: If hyper-inflation hits it rarely hits multiple countries at the same time (Czechoslovakia, Austria, Germany, France, and the UK in 1915 being an exception). So if you have some money on hand from a (stable) country like the UK, EU or Switzerland, this gives you some protection. Bitcoin: I don’t believe in Bitcoin, but I put a small amount of each paycheck into it… just in case I’m wrong. There is additional upside because it is portable. Negatives – Theft: Billions of dollars are stolen from the largest exchanges (i.e. Mt. Gox and Bitfinex), and none of these losses are insured. Negatives – Lost Password: If you forget the code for your bitcoin, your money is gone forever. The creator of bitcoin (Satoshi Nakamoto) has $30 billion worth of bitcoin but has never touched it… so many presume he/she lost the code to access it.

Reply to: Inflation preparedness Posted December 7, 2021

Sharing this multi-part post from a community member who works in Big Finance (with relevant degrees etc.) but has to share this anonymously bc of their employer. This isn’t endorsed, but we made slight edits for formatting/clarity only. “hyper-inflation [aka currency collapse] unleashes such greed, violence, unhappiness, and hatred, largely bred from fear, as no society can survive uncrippled and unchanged.” – When Money Dies 80% of Americans now describe ‘inflation’ as their number one concern. There have been many times in history when countries have suffered hyper-inflation. I’m going to ignore the blatant examples that exist today (i.e. Venezuela 2016, Turkey 2021, Zimbabwe 2007) because I’m only worried about hyper-inflation in modern Western economies. Historical examples include: Post-WWI Austria (1914-1921): Annual inflation of 10,000 percent in 1921 alone. Weimar Germany (1914-1923): Note, in the first year inflation was only 10% but it eventually reached 1 quintillion percent. Great Britain (1914-1921): The pound lost half it’s value (as measured against gold) in 1915. France (1914-1921): The franc lost 70% of it’s value from 1914 to 1921. Great Depression (U.S. 1929-1932): The dollar halved in value (in gold terms). Long Depression – called the ‘Great Depression’ before 1929 (U.S. 1873-1879): Began with the Coinage Act, which banned the use of silver as currency in the U.S. French Revolution – Reign of Terror (1789-1799): Assignats lost 99% of their declared value by 1796. American Revolution (1775-1783): The phrase “Not worth a continental” meant that the colonies’ currency (the Continental Dollar) was worthless. These examples are enlightening because similar sociological changes occurred: Everyone who can, emigrates. Generally, this is the most affluent 5% of the population, although business owners cannot emigrate without forfeiting their businesses. Everything ‘movable’ that can be exported (from produce to pianos) is moved out of the border so it can be traded for sound currency. Politicians will blame corporations (who can export their earnings) and business owners (who don’t want to trade their inventory for worthless currency). People earn more from speculating on currency exchange than they can from their day jobs. Jealousy runs rampant, and those with assets conceal them from their neighbors. Breakdown of law and order. Urban mobs invade the surrounding countryside and take the food or fuel they need to survive. Governments criminalize the use of foreign currency and/or precious metals for trade, forcing much of the economy to the black market. Every sane person ignores these rules. Strikes of government workers become commonplace, as do anti-government riots. The re-emergence of a barter economy as commerce slows. Farmers and merchants don’t want to exchange their inventory (which is inflation protected) for your currency (which is not). So people start exchanging inventory for inventory. Everyone assumed ‘It can’t get any worse’, but it does. Repeatedly, and for years on end. (cont’d…)

Reply to: Best survival knife Posted December 7, 2021

(Sharing this comment from a reader who wanted to stay anonymous:) I recently bought the Lionsteel M4, a full tang 3.74 inch blade, with M390 steel and leather sheath. I thing its far surpass the Fallkniven F1 in every way. It could hold the edge for a whole month after sharpened with daily use, the only downside is super steel are a little bit harder to sharpen if you dull the edge completely, but normal touch up ceramic and stropping would be fine. What do you think about this one, and do you think it should also be on the recommend list?

Reply to: How to choose and mix bladed tools Posted December 7, 2021

(Sharing this comment from a (non-native-english) reader who wanted to stay anonymous:) As you list kukri in the luxury list, I can see why, a good kukri is a deadly weapon in trained hand, while useful as outdoor tools. But, kukri isn’t always suitable for any environment, for example, some country people carry short parang (around 12 inch), some country use long machete(18 inch), which is useful to clear underbush in tropical while prevent snake bit, so in my opinion it is important to mention tools should suit the climate and country, the best would be follow what the average outdoor people in the country use. For the Avoid Very Large Blade part, I could say this is simply true but not the most case. I know some people imagine they are rambo and try to use a large blade for everything and fighting with it, but in reality knife shouldn’t be used as weapon unless you have nothing better. I believe you have heard the Kabar USMC knife, they are popular and work great in the woods. As the technology make progress, the company that make kabar, collab with Ethan Becker (A very experienced outdoor man) and produce the becker line which is an upgrade over the USMC and more toward to utility line when compare to USMC. I have bought a BK9, which is a 9 inch bowie, with the intention to use as chopping, splitting wood, and baton if I need to, it has a nice balance, not so heavy compared to the short machete used in my country, and easier to carry in backpack. I still use smaller knife for smaller task, sure the BK9 could do anything, but I wouldn’t want to, since there are better options. Also, you could found a lot of people like the BK9 very much, especially on bladeforums.com

Reply to: Minimizing bug out bag weight Posted July 13, 2020

Great question. Context for others reading this: a tarp is included in a “level 1” bug out bag, meaning it’s a core item you’d have even in a small kit. As you build a bigger kit (still within reason, of course), you might choose to also include a small tent. A tarp is first because it’s a “jack of all trades, master of none.” You can use it to make basic shelters, plus lots of other uses like water collection, signaling, as a stretcher or sled, covering holes in structures, hiding supplies, fishing, clearing debris, and so on. There’s lots of ways you could use a big piece of durable fabric with attachment points. You do need some basic cordage and knot knowledge to make worthwhile shelters with tarps, though, in addition to tie-off points for the cordage. But if you’re going to carry a bigger pack, it can be great to add a separate tent. For most people, tents are fundamentally easier and better than tarps for shelter because they’re specialized for the task — you don’t need to be good with cordage and knots, don’t have to think as much about ground water runoff flows, etc. Since shelter is such a core need (in many cases even more important than food), we like the idea of having two ways to create shelter, especially when one of those ways (tarp) is so versatile. So even if you also carry a tent, we still think it’s worth carrying the tarp. Besides all of the other potential tarp uses, something may happen where you no longer have your tent, but at least you still have the tarp. You can also use them in combo with each other for more versatility, such as better ground protection against flood waters, better overhead protection against sun or snow/rain, better heat retention (turning your three-season tent into more of a four-season tent), and so on. That said, you can of course customize things how you want. How do you think about it Alicia?

Reply to: How to prepare for and survive civil unrest Posted June 21, 2020

It’s one of those things that wasn’t clear in law because of new tech being a mismatch with existing law. For a while, cops/TSA/etc were using peoples fingerprints to open up their devices: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/05/iphone-fingerprint-search-warrant/480861/ Some recent cases have started to set precedent saying no, they can’t: https://www.pcmag.com/news/court-cops-cant-force-you-to-unlock-a-phone-with-biometrics But it’s one of those things where, given it’s still on shaky legal ground and the normal rules might not be followed during unrest, I thought it was still something worth pointing out. Apple and others have some shortcuts you can memorize to temporarily disable FaceID etc, such as when you’re handing your phone over to law enforcement: https://www.macworld.com/article/3236793/how-to-quickly-and-discreetly-disable-face-id-on-the-iphone-x.html

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Reply to: Best gas masks and respirators for survival Posted March 31, 2020

Not off the top of my head. Anyone else? I’m not aware of any best practice around cleaning those cartridges, since people just use and toss them. Check 3M?

Reply to: [Official discussion thread] Emergency kit / bug out bag list Posted February 6, 2020

If you already have a solid fuel, are comfortable with it, and understand the overall context/tradeoffs of it, then it’s fine. We just haven’t done a full guide yet to portable stoves, but linked the Jetboil because we’ve used a bunch of those products and know they’re one of the best in the market. Especially for muggles with no bush experience.

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