Jeff Bullard - Member - The Prepared

Discussions

Reply to: No, 73% of US COVID-19 cases aren’t Omicron yet: how the press got it wrong Posted December 24, 2021

In both Dallas county and Harris (Houston) county, Omicron was ~75% by Dec 15th. This according to sequencing data from area hospital networks. Genotyping in N Texas was done using an 8-factor PCR test that can identify the currrent most common variants circulating. I think this author has it wrong, grossly underestimating Omicron prevalence. Below is Harris County followed by N Texas.

Reply to: No, 73% of US COVID-19 cases aren’t Omicron yet: how the press got it wrong Posted December 24, 2021

This first plot is new cases in the United States. That “zoom” exponential takeoff started around Dec 15th. Same time as Florida (second plot). This indicates to me (along with sequencing data now available) that US hit 50% prevalence of Omicron sometime around ~Dec 16th. This is consistent with UK data, showing 55% on Dec 14th across the kingdom (2395 of 4385 sequences Omicron). Last plot is Houston/Harris County hospital system testing, showing Omicron >70% prevalence by Dec 13th.

Reply to: No, 73% of US COVID-19 cases aren’t Omicron yet: how the press got it wrong Posted December 21, 2021

Omicron represented 11% of US cases on Dec 9th. That’s from GISAID data, 45 of 426 sequences from that specimen date. Using known growth rates from UK and Denmark would put the US at 75% Omicron by Dec 18th.

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Reply to: No, 73% of US COVID-19 cases aren’t Omicron yet: how the press got it wrong Posted December 24, 2021

In both Dallas county and Harris (Houston) county, Omicron was ~75% by Dec 15th. This according to sequencing data from area hospital networks. Genotyping in N Texas was done using an 8-factor PCR test that can identify the currrent most common variants circulating. I think this author has it wrong, grossly underestimating Omicron prevalence. Below is Harris County followed by N Texas.

Reply to: No, 73% of US COVID-19 cases aren’t Omicron yet: how the press got it wrong Posted December 24, 2021

This first plot is new cases in the United States. That “zoom” exponential takeoff started around Dec 15th. Same time as Florida (second plot). This indicates to me (along with sequencing data now available) that US hit 50% prevalence of Omicron sometime around ~Dec 16th. This is consistent with UK data, showing 55% on Dec 14th across the kingdom (2395 of 4385 sequences Omicron). Last plot is Houston/Harris County hospital system testing, showing Omicron >70% prevalence by Dec 13th.

Reply to: No, 73% of US COVID-19 cases aren’t Omicron yet: how the press got it wrong Posted December 21, 2021

Omicron represented 11% of US cases on Dec 9th. That’s from GISAID data, 45 of 426 sequences from that specimen date. Using known growth rates from UK and Denmark would put the US at 75% Omicron by Dec 18th.