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Reply to: Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong Posted April 28, 2020

Their assumptions are incorrect, but the conclusions are accurate. New York and New Jersey are the two hardest hit states. Collectively, those two states account for 41 percent of the U.S. cases and 51 percent of deaths from Covid-19. New York State recently completed a serology study indicating that upwards of 14 percent of the people in that state have contracted the virus (See April 27 Article: New York, California Serology Studies Give Early Estimates of COVID-19 Prevalence”). As of 11 pm on 27 April, NY had 22,668 deaths from 291,996 cases or a case death rate of 2.74 percent. However, 14 percent of NY’s population would, according to the serology study results, test positive for the virus. That equates to 2,804,340 confirmed cases. The 22,668 confirmed deaths would then represent a case death rate of 0.81 percent. The data shows there is very little mortality risk for the healthy people in the age groups that predominantly comprise the work force. Download the Covid-19 Daily Data Summary from the New York City Health Department. Of NYC’s 11,820 deaths through 27 April, information about whether those who died had serious comorbidities is known in 72.4 percent of deaths. For the remainder, that info is unknown. Of the group wherein the information of underlying and preexisting health conditions is known, a whopping 99.2 percent died with comorbidities. Additionally, 73.5 percent of all those who died in NYC were 65 or older. The workforce is generally younger and healthier. The sad, little disclosed story of this pandemic is that many of the fatalities are in nursing homes. New Jersey reports that almost half their deaths are in long-term care facilities. Again, not the workforce. One more thing and I’ll wrap it up. Sweden’s malls, restaurants, and schools have remained open. They did not shut down. Sweden reports more than half of their deaths are in nursing homes (source: Source: NPR Article of 26 April 2020 titled “Stockholm Expected To Reach Herd Immunity In May, Swedish Ambassador Says”). For analysis sake, let’s make Sweden the 51st state. Sorting the case rates (confirmed cases per million population) from highest to lowest, Sweden’s cases would rank them number 17 among U.S. states. New York’s case rate is 7.5 times higher than Sweden’s; New Jersey’s is 6.3 times higher; Connecticut’s is 4.2 times higher, and Massachusetts’ 1.85 times higher. All had among the most draconian mitigation orders in the U.S.

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Reply to: Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong Posted April 28, 2020

Their assumptions are incorrect, but the conclusions are accurate. New York and New Jersey are the two hardest hit states. Collectively, those two states account for 41 percent of the U.S. cases and 51 percent of deaths from Covid-19. New York State recently completed a serology study indicating that upwards of 14 percent of the people in that state have contracted the virus (See April 27 Article: New York, California Serology Studies Give Early Estimates of COVID-19 Prevalence”). As of 11 pm on 27 April, NY had 22,668 deaths from 291,996 cases or a case death rate of 2.74 percent. However, 14 percent of NY’s population would, according to the serology study results, test positive for the virus. That equates to 2,804,340 confirmed cases. The 22,668 confirmed deaths would then represent a case death rate of 0.81 percent. The data shows there is very little mortality risk for the healthy people in the age groups that predominantly comprise the work force. Download the Covid-19 Daily Data Summary from the New York City Health Department. Of NYC’s 11,820 deaths through 27 April, information about whether those who died had serious comorbidities is known in 72.4 percent of deaths. For the remainder, that info is unknown. Of the group wherein the information of underlying and preexisting health conditions is known, a whopping 99.2 percent died with comorbidities. Additionally, 73.5 percent of all those who died in NYC were 65 or older. The workforce is generally younger and healthier. The sad, little disclosed story of this pandemic is that many of the fatalities are in nursing homes. New Jersey reports that almost half their deaths are in long-term care facilities. Again, not the workforce. One more thing and I’ll wrap it up. Sweden’s malls, restaurants, and schools have remained open. They did not shut down. Sweden reports more than half of their deaths are in nursing homes (source: Source: NPR Article of 26 April 2020 titled “Stockholm Expected To Reach Herd Immunity In May, Swedish Ambassador Says”). For analysis sake, let’s make Sweden the 51st state. Sorting the case rates (confirmed cases per million population) from highest to lowest, Sweden’s cases would rank them number 17 among U.S. states. New York’s case rate is 7.5 times higher than Sweden’s; New Jersey’s is 6.3 times higher; Connecticut’s is 4.2 times higher, and Massachusetts’ 1.85 times higher. All had among the most draconian mitigation orders in the U.S.