Carlin Kersch - Member - The Prepared

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Reply to: Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong Posted April 28, 2020

As per the NYC data you linked, there’s currently 11,820 confirmed COVID-19 deaths and 5,395 probable COVID-19 deaths according to the city, and 12,287 deaths in NYC as reported by the State. If you combine probable and confirmed deaths from the city tally, you get around 0.2%. If you take the state tally, you get more like 0.146%. If you take only confirmed deaths reported by the city, you get 0.14%. All of that is irrelevant. It doesn’t matter whether the actual current percentage of people in NYC that have died of COVID is 0.14% or 0.2%: both of those are many times higher than the number of people that die from the flu every year. The point is that this is far deadlier than the flu. We don’t know many people have died specifically from COVID-19 thus far in New York, and we certainly don’t know how many will end up dying. We do know that this is already far deadlier than the flu. Lets take the lowest estimate: 0.14%. A 0.14% population death rate applied across the entire us would kill over 450,000 people. Unless you’re willing to accept that death rate, arguing over whether that’s a better estimate than 0.2% is completely missing the point.

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Reply to: Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong Posted April 28, 2020

As per the NYC data you linked, there’s currently 11,820 confirmed COVID-19 deaths and 5,395 probable COVID-19 deaths according to the city, and 12,287 deaths in NYC as reported by the State. If you combine probable and confirmed deaths from the city tally, you get around 0.2%. If you take the state tally, you get more like 0.146%. If you take only confirmed deaths reported by the city, you get 0.14%. All of that is irrelevant. It doesn’t matter whether the actual current percentage of people in NYC that have died of COVID is 0.14% or 0.2%: both of those are many times higher than the number of people that die from the flu every year. The point is that this is far deadlier than the flu. We don’t know many people have died specifically from COVID-19 thus far in New York, and we certainly don’t know how many will end up dying. We do know that this is already far deadlier than the flu. Lets take the lowest estimate: 0.14%. A 0.14% population death rate applied across the entire us would kill over 450,000 people. Unless you’re willing to accept that death rate, arguing over whether that’s a better estimate than 0.2% is completely missing the point.