enterthenumber - Member - The Prepared

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Reply to: Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong Posted April 27, 2020

I just think it’s important to be honest and not nitpick lines out of a transcript to make a point. This has to be taken in context. The 12% positive rate cited is indisputably prefaced by total number of tests and how many of those were positive. This is then taken out of context because the “12% of Californians were positive for COVID” statement was clearly sloppy and should have been clarified, but, again, it was immediately prefaced by numbers nobody is disputing, so it’s not honest to then say the Dr was clearly saying 12% of all Californians test positive. Yes, he should have been more clear, but people should also take the whole claim in context. Ari then goes to use this claim the Dr never made to make a point about how he makes the same point (which, again, he never made) later in the interview. That’s just dishonest and it needs to be called out.

Reply to: Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong Posted April 27, 2020

He wasn’t though. 12% of 280k is around 33k. He was saying 12% of those tested were positive, which is true based on the numbers he prefaced the statement with. The “That’s 12% of Californians were positive for COVID” has to be read in context: he had just given numbers that add up to 12% positive test rate, granted he didn’t clarify this, but that’ll happen when you’re talking in front of cameras. As for the 4 million tested, that was around the number of tests across the entire US at the time the interview was given. The positive tests came back at 19.6%. He then extrapolated that out to the US population to give a point-in-time example.

Reply to: Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong Posted April 27, 2020

Right, though in the claims quoted in the article, he’s not. The 12% is the number positive from the number tested. He doesn’t say this is the total number positive across all of California. If you read through the rest of the transcript, he never makes the claim that the number positive is actually 12% and, in fact, every claim about positive is made in the context of those tested. Later in the article he does extrapolate, but he (1) says he’s doing just that and (2) extrapolates percent positive from those tested against percent positive from those tested, which is both transparent and fair to do. He also uses total confirmed deaths to calculate percentages based off total population, which is also entirely fair to do.

Reply to: Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong Posted April 27, 2020

Ari, seems to me that there might be some confusion here. The 12% number comes from the positive rate of those tested. There were 280,900 tested and around 33k positive, which comes out to around 12%. The next sentence was poorly phrased and out of context it seems like he’s saying 12% of all Californians have already tested positive, but what he’s actually saying in that 12% of those 280k tested positive, not 12% of all Californians. Seems like what happened here is one or two words of clarity were missed. Taken in context and knowing the numbers he used and those numbers coming out to 12%, he wasn’t making the claim you’re saying he made.

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Reply to: Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong Posted April 27, 2020

I just think it’s important to be honest and not nitpick lines out of a transcript to make a point. This has to be taken in context. The 12% positive rate cited is indisputably prefaced by total number of tests and how many of those were positive. This is then taken out of context because the “12% of Californians were positive for COVID” statement was clearly sloppy and should have been clarified, but, again, it was immediately prefaced by numbers nobody is disputing, so it’s not honest to then say the Dr was clearly saying 12% of all Californians test positive. Yes, he should have been more clear, but people should also take the whole claim in context. Ari then goes to use this claim the Dr never made to make a point about how he makes the same point (which, again, he never made) later in the interview. That’s just dishonest and it needs to be called out.

Reply to: Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong Posted April 27, 2020

He wasn’t though. 12% of 280k is around 33k. He was saying 12% of those tested were positive, which is true based on the numbers he prefaced the statement with. The “That’s 12% of Californians were positive for COVID” has to be read in context: he had just given numbers that add up to 12% positive test rate, granted he didn’t clarify this, but that’ll happen when you’re talking in front of cameras. As for the 4 million tested, that was around the number of tests across the entire US at the time the interview was given. The positive tests came back at 19.6%. He then extrapolated that out to the US population to give a point-in-time example.

Reply to: Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong Posted April 27, 2020

Right, though in the claims quoted in the article, he’s not. The 12% is the number positive from the number tested. He doesn’t say this is the total number positive across all of California. If you read through the rest of the transcript, he never makes the claim that the number positive is actually 12% and, in fact, every claim about positive is made in the context of those tested. Later in the article he does extrapolate, but he (1) says he’s doing just that and (2) extrapolates percent positive from those tested against percent positive from those tested, which is both transparent and fair to do. He also uses total confirmed deaths to calculate percentages based off total population, which is also entirely fair to do.

Reply to: Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong Posted April 27, 2020

Ari, seems to me that there might be some confusion here. The 12% number comes from the positive rate of those tested. There were 280,900 tested and around 33k positive, which comes out to around 12%. The next sentence was poorly phrased and out of context it seems like he’s saying 12% of all Californians have already tested positive, but what he’s actually saying in that 12% of those 280k tested positive, not 12% of all Californians. Seems like what happened here is one or two words of clarity were missed. Taken in context and knowing the numbers he used and those numbers coming out to 12%, he wasn’t making the claim you’re saying he made.