plasma - Member - The Prepared

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Reply to: Key developments for Thursday, October 15, 2020 Posted October 18, 2020

Sure, but that’s not an acceleration in the rate of case growth, that’s an acceleration in case growth. The rate of case growth is pretty consistently 0 or 0.1 from week to week (except for the week that went from 2 to 2.3). An acceleration in the rate of case growth would be like an acceleration in the rate of speed, meaning that more speed is gained per unit time than before.

Reply to: Key developments for Thursday, October 15, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020

I think it’s misleading to write that the “rate of case growth continues to accelerate”. That’s a statement about the third derivative of the number of cases: case growth is the first derivative, rate of case growth is the second, and case growth accelerating means that the third derivative is positive. It’s a statement about the change of the rate of case growth. I went through the trouble of graphing the change of the rate of case growth for the last one month of OWiD data. The graph looks like this: https://imgur.com/a/0E86N7W You can clearly see that case growth is not accelerating. I also graphed the change in case growth for the sam period: https://imgur.com/a/89J7bN2 You can see that case growth was accelerating for some time, but hasn’t for about a week now. Finally, case growth itself can be seen in the OWiD data explorer (note this graph is cumulative new cases per week rather than per day): https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-08-15..latest&country=~OWID_WRL&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=weekly&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc This really is rising, so the most we can say is that cases are accelerating. But case growth or the rate of case growth doesn’t have a clear recent trend. Thanks for these news roundups!

Reply to: COVID-19: key developments for Wednesday, April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020

>Supply chain issues and lack of funds means one zoo in Germany may soon be feeding its animals to its other animals. Alternatively, they may have to euthanize animals. This is a bit misleading – there don’t seem to be any supply chain issues at the zoo currently.

Reply to: COVID-19 surveillance: the new Google/Apple mobile app is just a preview of what’s coming Posted April 14, 2020

It’s important to note that the Apple and Google contact tracing app has no way of actually identifying anybody’s contacts. To simplify: Your phone broadcasts a particular number via Bluetooth to nearby phones. This number changes every 15 minutes. Nearby phones keep a record of numbers they’ve received in the past. If you get a positive test result, you notify google via the app. Other phones can see if any of the numbers they have received in the past have a positive test – but google does not have any visibility into what numbers each phone is tracking. Google essentially only has a list of people who have tested positive. It does not have a list of who every user has had contact with.

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Reply to: Key developments for Thursday, October 15, 2020 Posted October 18, 2020

Sure, but that’s not an acceleration in the rate of case growth, that’s an acceleration in case growth. The rate of case growth is pretty consistently 0 or 0.1 from week to week (except for the week that went from 2 to 2.3). An acceleration in the rate of case growth would be like an acceleration in the rate of speed, meaning that more speed is gained per unit time than before.

Reply to: Key developments for Thursday, October 15, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020

I think it’s misleading to write that the “rate of case growth continues to accelerate”. That’s a statement about the third derivative of the number of cases: case growth is the first derivative, rate of case growth is the second, and case growth accelerating means that the third derivative is positive. It’s a statement about the change of the rate of case growth. I went through the trouble of graphing the change of the rate of case growth for the last one month of OWiD data. The graph looks like this: https://imgur.com/a/0E86N7W You can clearly see that case growth is not accelerating. I also graphed the change in case growth for the sam period: https://imgur.com/a/89J7bN2 You can see that case growth was accelerating for some time, but hasn’t for about a week now. Finally, case growth itself can be seen in the OWiD data explorer (note this graph is cumulative new cases per week rather than per day): https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-08-15..latest&country=~OWID_WRL&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=weekly&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc This really is rising, so the most we can say is that cases are accelerating. But case growth or the rate of case growth doesn’t have a clear recent trend. Thanks for these news roundups!

Reply to: COVID-19: key developments for Wednesday, April 15, 2020 Posted April 15, 2020

>Supply chain issues and lack of funds means one zoo in Germany may soon be feeding its animals to its other animals. Alternatively, they may have to euthanize animals. This is a bit misleading – there don’t seem to be any supply chain issues at the zoo currently.

Reply to: COVID-19 surveillance: the new Google/Apple mobile app is just a preview of what’s coming Posted April 14, 2020

It’s important to note that the Apple and Google contact tracing app has no way of actually identifying anybody’s contacts. To simplify: Your phone broadcasts a particular number via Bluetooth to nearby phones. This number changes every 15 minutes. Nearby phones keep a record of numbers they’ve received in the past. If you get a positive test result, you notify google via the app. Other phones can see if any of the numbers they have received in the past have a positive test – but google does not have any visibility into what numbers each phone is tracking. Google essentially only has a list of people who have tested positive. It does not have a list of who every user has had contact with.