Prepare for a disaster and know the risks

I posted yesterday about a case of a nasty emergent syndrome that is in New Brunswick.

We prep and cover various gear and necessary for life items like water, food, clothing, and shelter.

Has anyone considered the risk factors for the scenarios/disasters for which you prep?

If so, have you considered changes to any of those risks and changed how you prep or plan to prep going forward?

After what I read yesterday, for how long it took to make this progressive and deadly neurological syndrome public, after an internal memo was leaked and for the additional information that I posted on that thread today, that my prepping is never going to be the same.

I am prepping now for risk as well as scenario. I am also prepping for what is not being released to the public and will continue my habit of medical research reading. It is how I got ahead on shoring up preps before Covid-19 was front and center in the media.

New and emergent diseases, viruses and syndromes. Contaminated food, water and air.

The risk has always been there and just got worse because we aren’t always the first to know. I am prepping accordingly. 


  • Comments (14)

    • 6

      In reply, Yes, considered my preparedness risk factors and already incorporated the needed changes into plans – with testing still ongoing; definitely not complete as of now.

      My 2 big risk factors are new restrictions I learned about re boats entering navigatable waters and about infectious disease control.

      My inflarable has much less value for evacuation prepping now.

      Mosquitoes and humans are dangerous vectors for infectious disease. PPE and flat-profile isolated living for a start to an emergency are on top of “To Do” list.

      So much is going on ………………

      • 4

        Bob, I did it again and blew out my reply getting the link below. Will try to reconstruct.

        New restrictions/policies and other changes weren’t something I factored either.

        Look at how fast toilet paper was rationed during covid-19. I got ahead of the curve by following Imperial College UK. They carry a lot of clout with respect to their influence on WHO. 

        I read their reports, which are dry and boring for some people, but that’s how I figured out Covid-19 was going to be a rough ride when it was still in China. 

        Wise preppers research. It’s not all buying food and target shooting. If the “dry medical research” information can save my hiney, then that’s pretty darn exciting to me.

        Imperial College UK Medical Influence Policy for WHO

        Tripple Ditto on mosquitos and humans as dangerous vectors for infectious disease. I can’t control other people, only myself. Mosquitos definitely need to be dressed and planned for. 

        I’ve got to look at my preps/plans with a critical eye and reassess/reallocate budget.

        Right now, I am channeling Slick Willie Nelson, bank robber. He was asked, “Hey Slick Willie Nelson, how come you rob banks?” “Because that’s where the money is,” Slick Willie answered.

        So I am following the medical trail. I read their excuse for why there wasn’t an earlier release of the New Brunswick situation. I have friends in Blacks Harbour and am going to contact them for intell (if they know).

        I want to also extrapolate the emerging disease risk list from the WHO and try to figure out how they could impact scenario and prepping. I will work most likely to occur, think Nipah. From there also potential for restrictions/policy changes. Especially on the heels of Covid.

      • 9

        Ubique, Understand. Here, too. I’m synchro meshing my link reading and related to weather so can get some “errands” accomplished.

        I note that the rationing experienced by the public is for basic, easy to manufacture items. During WWII, FDR was authorizing the manufacture of aircraft by the thousands.  Ships, like the Liberty Ship, were built, with one from start to finish in 1 week. Here, we still have a shortage of baking soda.

        Exactly ! All this isn’t about extra food and target shooting.

        Note that the “medical trail” is 2-pronged. One is the public announcements such as changing social distancing perimeters from 6 ft to 3 ft for some school kids. The non-public aspects of the trail allow for looking at new hospital locations as just one example. The Virginia coast is shifting inland toward the Shendandoah Valley (~ 200 miles away) and a little westward to revitalize Virginia’s portion of Appalachia.

        I studied the national vaccine program and can see why many states near here require an appointment just to get on the list. Advanced-level societies do not operate this way.

      • 7

        Bob, There are phone appointments for Covid-19 vaccine and I was told by a nurse to book appt that was as it is better. I’d rather get it in the doctor’s office with less people around.

        Part of what I was reading today was regarding where the research funding is being funnelled. That should be able to tell the story on what issues they are most concerned about in the now and in the near future.

        I plan to draft an email later to gov and other two parties asking if we can’t improve the communication protocols for an unidentified but potentially new prion disease that apparently has been floating around a part of Canada since 2015 and getting worse over time. 

        I am going to ask them would it not make more sense to desseminate that information to the public and health care. What if someone had similar onset or symptoms but was misdiagnosed because they didn’t know this other prion like disease was in New Brunswick? Or, PLOS journal with this little gem relevant to prion disease:

        Spontaneous generation of prions

      • 3

        Ubique, My ultimate question is what is the purpose for a vaccination appointment ? If the weather is rough on the day of the appointment, do the public health authorities want a senior citizen with reduced reaction times, driving a vehicle to vaccination clinic ? After shot/jab, with possible reaction, driving home ?  Apparently, the political establishment accepts this.

        I am both a practioner of public safety anf my personal safety. Regardless of errand, if the weather does not seem safe for a senior citizen to drive in, my errand gets delayed for both matters of public safety and private citizen – me – safety.

        ……… and the first 2 brands of vaccine requires 2 (2) trips ! …… and this is occuring during winter weather …… and a priority group was senior citizens !

      • 3

        Bob, Exactly re appt – BC was not like here. I just went to my doctor’s office and got a flu shot.

        The vaccination appointment would be easier made with your doctor which is usually closer by and avoids the whole contagion issue around a herd of other people (as was my previous experience here).

        Can you make an appointment with your doctor and go there instead? The two trip issue at the mercy of winter weather is another stressor.

        There has to be a better way of doing this. To me the doctor’s office would make more sense. And what about disable/shut-in’s who have to arrange special transport? They should offer to vaccinate them in their homes.

        I don’t drive in foul weather anymore. Last time I was going home from Brandon and a storm blew in. Blinding snow and driving the van through a stretch of highway that has hills and at the time, no guard rails for the sharp drops.

        Two 4x4s blew past me and kicked up more snow. I lost what little of the road I could see. I knew those drops off the road were there and if I went in no one would see me down there.

        I drive to road conditions and these idiots didn’t. That was the last time.

        When I made it to the town before mine, I pulled in off the road and jumped out. I was vibrating and walked around the van to clean off the rear window/lights that were covered in snow. Behind me were about 6 vehicles all following.

        That same winter a young woman my area went off the road and down a steep drop off like the one I described with her baby the car. They found her finally. She and the baby were alive, but the mother lost both her hands and I believe 1 not both feet due to frostbite.

        They finally put guard rails in on the hill after this incident happened to her. Why does it always take death or suffering to fix the obvious?

        Also, FYI, there is a pneumoccal shot using given around 65. My mom got one in BC at 75 which is how I knew about it. My doctor gave me one early at 55. It used to be given once in a person’s life, and now I believe it is repeated. It’s good to have and can protect you from a certain type of nasty pneumonia that we become susceptible to as we age.

      • 4

        Ubique, I had that pneumoccal shot/jab.  Excellent !  Believe it minimized my initial encounters with the coronavirus.

        Here, doctors’ offices are overwhelmed. Priority goes to emergencies. 

        The shut-ins and disabled  have very limited support, if any.

        I write so negative perhaps because a few decades earlier, I’ve experienced the exact opposite. 

        Times have changed.

      • 2

        Bob, I see it here, too. The contagion of indifference.

        Sometimes, insight can seem negative when what we see is sad. How else can it be spoken or written of?

        It is good to speak of it because preppers will age and should know that prepping for limited support is a part of wise prepping.

        It is another risk factor in multi-threat prepping: the risk of indifferent family, friends or community supports.

        The risk of being devalued because age is no longer equated with skills and wisdom.

        They can try that with me, but I have my Grandpa’s potato fork.

        Stay feisty, Bob.

      • 5

        Sometimes I mess up a post that I’m writing when getting a link or my fingers bump the trackpad on my laptop. What saves me many times is hitting the CTRL+Z buttons to redo the mess up I just did. Maybe that could help you next time. Won’t help much if you are typing on a tablet or phone though…

      • 3

        Thank you Gideon, sometimes I get really clumsy typing because of arthritis in both hands.

        I still think I can type like I don’t though….lol.

      • 2

        With apologies to Willie Nelson the above should have read:

        Slick Willie Sutton.

    • 4

      Ma’am I respectfully suggest a single focused effort on preparing for A disaster is not good,  Prepping for DISASTERS (multiple) is better with an emphisis on the PRIMARY threat in your area but with a flexible and adaptable approach to other threats.

      For example  I read of a community I think was in southern California  (it could have been south of the border even) , the locals were fearful of wildfires tearing down from the foothills above them, so as a precaution they cut away all of the flammable foliage  in the belief that it would save their homes if fire came. The trouble is FIRE did not come El Nino did instead and the heavy rain destabilised the now barren hillside above their homes which triggered a mudslide which did much damage to many expensive houses.

      Prepping =Good, single threat focus not so good, multi threat prepping very good.

      • 3

        Hi Bill,

        I absolutely agree with you and thank you for your example about the SoCal community. They did what they thought would protect them on one hand, but didn’t count on the risk of heavy rains on the other.

        It is a good example of how we can’t control nature. It is also a good example of how prepping is about measuring and considering risk. Sadly, Bill, sometimes we just don’t get it right, as the people in the story illustrate. What they did might have saved their homes had a fire occurred. El Nino had other plans.

        Your story is also a good illustration of how a bit of knowledge when prepping can be dangerous. They hadn’t factored how removing all the trees could destabilize the ground above them. No one checked with an engineer before removing the trees.

        In this thread I wanted to address how risk factors can change for the multiple disasters and scenarios for which we prep and the importance of monitoring those risks and any changes to them. Changes to risks can necessitate changes or improvements to our preps.

        I have followed medical research as part of my prepping while I prepare for as broad a range of scenarios as possible. It was because I monitor risks that I was able to get ahead of the curve on Covid-19 and adjust my preps quickly.

        After the news broke publicly about the situation in New Brunswick, I realized that despite my penchant for reading boring medical research, there are threats that are simply not publicly disclosed for whatever reason.

        Because of that news, I now monitor emerging diseases in order to be even more fully prepared for multiple risks and scenarios.

        The mosquito issue arose because I noted the amount of mosquito borne illness in existing and emerging threats.  I realized that the preps I have on hand for mosquito protection were not sufficient.

        I was using the “same old, same old” approach to mosquito protection, when protection had improved over the years and the risks have changed.  Example is picaridin over Deet and better netting gear. So, I am revamping and improving my existing mosquito protection.

        As a note, West Nile virus carrying mosquitoes are in my town and area per tarsis trap counts. There has been one death so far about an hour away. 

        Thanks again Bill, I always appreciate your responses.


      • 6

        Bill, So true. It’s a required concurrent multiple emergency preparedness.  Otherwise, the naive think they’re safe until no trees for the bats and birds to feast on mosquitoes. A few people get sick with something and there’s no medical facility to go to.  At least they have a sophisticated med kit – unless they don’t.

        Believe the mudslides were in Orange County, just south of LA.