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These doctors are right on. There are three types of fatality rates. Crude Fatality Rate, Case Fatality Rate , and Infection Fatality Rate. Crude fatality rate is the total number of deaths/ total number of that population – these numbers are currently actually well below .1%.  The infection fatality rate cannot be found right now but it is the total total # of deaths/total # of infected (we don’t know the total number of infected),we know that it is a much higher number than currently reported. The case fatality rate (CFR) is the number of reported deaths / number of reported cases . The CFR is what’s being widely reported in the media and is a dangerously misleading number – because it’s missing all the people who have not been tested, but has to include all cases. In many states people who had mild symptoms were not permitted tests. Even an asymptomatic case is a case that would have to go into these numbers to get a true CFR. These doctors are extrapolating from their actual numbers and public data. Their numbers are much more accurate than theoretical models. We needed the theoretical models in the beginning, now we have actual data. Why are people choosing to ignore the actual data? If you don’t believe what they are saying check the numbers. I live in Illinois so let’s look at that as an example. According to the publicly available data the population of Illinois is  12.67 million there are 45,883 reported cases and 1983 reported deaths. The crude fatality rate for Illinois is 0.02%, the case fatality rate (based on only reported cases) is 4.32% .  Since we don’t know the actual number of cases we cannot derive the IFR which is what other people are confusing with the CFR and what the models were trying to predict. Anyway you look at the data the IFR will not be anywhere close to the forecasts. These doctors are using their data and extrapolating to apply to populations which paints a more accurate picture of the true mortality rate.

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These doctors are right on. There are three types of fatality rates. Crude Fatality Rate, Case Fatality Rate , and Infection Fatality Rate. Crude fatality rate is the total number of deaths/ total number of that population – these numbers are currently actually well below .1%.  The infection fatality rate cannot be found right now but it is the total total # of deaths/total # of infected (we don’t know the total number of infected),we know that it is a much higher number than currently reported. The case fatality rate (CFR) is the number of reported deaths / number of reported cases . The CFR is what’s being widely reported in the media and is a dangerously misleading number – because it’s missing all the people who have not been tested, but has to include all cases. In many states people who had mild symptoms were not permitted tests. Even an asymptomatic case is a case that would have to go into these numbers to get a true CFR. These doctors are extrapolating from their actual numbers and public data. Their numbers are much more accurate than theoretical models. We needed the theoretical models in the beginning, now we have actual data. Why are people choosing to ignore the actual data? If you don’t believe what they are saying check the numbers. I live in Illinois so let’s look at that as an example. According to the publicly available data the population of Illinois is  12.67 million there are 45,883 reported cases and 1983 reported deaths. The crude fatality rate for Illinois is 0.02%, the case fatality rate (based on only reported cases) is 4.32% .  Since we don’t know the actual number of cases we cannot derive the IFR which is what other people are confusing with the CFR and what the models were trying to predict. Anyway you look at the data the IFR will not be anywhere close to the forecasts. These doctors are using their data and extrapolating to apply to populations which paints a more accurate picture of the true mortality rate.