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Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Oct 8, 2021 Posted 2 weeks ago

My feeling is that otherwise rational people like Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying have gone off the deep end after years of being overly charitable to grifters. I recommend the Decoding the Gurus podcast about them and their role in promoting Ivermectin conspiracism.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Oct 8, 2021 Posted 2 weeks ago

People say they oppose boosters because, in general, you only care about whether a vaccine prevents death, severe disease, or hospitalization. The Public Health field is broader than medicine in general and has more of a sociological dimension, and generally takes more of a stance that people should be allowed to choose options for preventing infection that people are willing to live with (I’m getting a booster if I can so I can feel more comfortable going on a date without wearing a mask). You can generalize all that to a broader society. And yeah, the H5N6 is something to keep an eye on but hasn’t risen to the level where it looks like it could be a threat.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Oct 5, 2021 Posted 2 weeks ago

The Senate passed a short-term extension of the debt ceiling tonight. Hopefully, the debate going forward will be less crazy. I’m going to take a hot bath and get some good sleep.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Oct 5, 2021 Posted 3 weeks ago

Fingers crossed that they work something out well before the last minute. I think the chance of “truly defaulting” (weeks without paying bills and digging into the economic abyss) is pretty much zero. But getting to the point of missing a payment shouldn’t even be an option and deliberately causing a recession to hurt political opposition or make a political point would set a horrible precedent. A stable liberal democracy also depends on officials not prioritizing scoring political points over peoples’ wellbeing.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Oct 5, 2021 Posted 3 weeks ago

I thought this post about the debt ceiling fiasco is good and explains why you (probably) don’t need to worry (at least in terms of things getting very very very bad in an SHTF sense, not in terms of whether it might hurt you if you invest in the stock market or government bonds or you depend on a 401(k)). My thinking (I’d say I generally agree with a “moderate MMT” viewpoint) is: There’s nothing you can do about it other than general preparedness. Anyway, if you voted then it really shouldn’t be your job. The “both sides-ism” take is wrong, but the arguments used by each side are ridiculous because there’s absolutely no good reason not to raise the debt limit. Any argument trying to explain why you won’t pay a bill you’re legally responsible for and you can afford is ridiculous. A credit downgrade probably isn’t that big of a deal and won’t significantly increase borrowing costs, so every political consultant is going to tell politicians to keep playing “chicken” until the last minute. Unless it’s dealt with beforehand, there will be a “Lehman moment” when Congress must act. We won’t really know how bad political polarization is until that “Lehman moment,” but my guess is it isn’t so bad yet that Congress won’t do something. We won’t 100% know whether polarization is very very bad until then, though, and anyone who wants to find out rather than dealing with this ASAP is dumb. The extent of damage might depend on human elements like how much people panic (panic and sell bonds, panic and lay off employees, etc.). In terms of investing (not professional advice here): keep an eye on Bitcoin and the Yen. My guess is their values will spike at some point and then come back down.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Oct 1, 2021 Posted 3 weeks ago

Well then, a violent response to national service would probably make a bad situation even worse. More reason you’d want more people ready for a crisis.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Oct 1, 2021 Posted 3 weeks ago

In an emergency (like a pandemic or severe supply chain problems or a financial crisis), the President could militarize the economy and force certain able-bodied people to go to work in essential jobs like healthcare or trucking, effectively nationalizing those industries. Neither Trump nor Biden nor George W. Bush did anything like that because the situation hadn’t gotten dire enough and the government decided to wait and see if things got very bad first. It’s questionable whether the US Constitution allows this, but unlikely that any court would question it if the situation was very bad. The downside of taking those types of measures is that it’s difficult to go back to normal. So I am a little worried when I see stuff like the military enforcing lockdowns in Australia. It’s important that people and communities are resilient so that they’re ready to mitigate a crisis and we don’t end up with the government taking more and more extreme measures.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Sep 21, 2021 Posted 4 weeks ago

My approach to COVID is pretty much: Vaccine. Social Distancing (less strict now that I’m vaccinated). Physical health for a better immune system. Reduce stress for a better immune system. I would say your attitude and mental health are a big part of being able to get through a crisis.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Sep 24, 2021 Posted 4 weeks ago

I’ll definitely need my coffee when the shit hits the fan.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Sep 24, 2021 Posted 4 weeks ago

Well, I got my flu shot on Wednesday after reading up on upcoming systemic economic risks. I’m glad the side effects are over with. My thinking was that all of the FDA/CDC/ACIP will eventually recommend a third dose for everyone. Refusing to give approval is a way to protest what federal workers perceive as political pressure. Many federal workers are furious that they’re perceived as not independent of politics. There was at least a perception that the White House pressured the FDA to approve boosters on a “politically convenient” timeline, like how in 2020 there was perceived pressure to approve a vaccine quickly. Perceived political pressure on the FDA is bad for vaccine hesitancy because the FDA’s job is to ensure vaccines and boosters are safe and effective independently of any political pressure or ideology. The FDA probably will eventually approve boosters. The “no” feels like a protest against what workers saw as political pressure.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Sep 21, 2021 Posted 1 month ago

Nonpartisan experts say a default is unlikely because the Budget Control Act of 1974 allows one reconciliation vote per fiscal year on taxes, one vote per fiscal year on spending, and one vote per fiscal year on the debt limit. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget thinks default is unlikely. Politicians are not necessarily informed about various issues and it’s better to listen to people who know what they’re talking about.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Sep 21, 2021 Posted 1 month ago

My feeling is that most people regardless of political ideology simply want crises to be over with sooner rather than later and aren’t terribly invested in a specific political agenda (but idk, maybe a left-wing or right-wing plan of some sort would be better than trying to find common ground). I will probably vote a certain way no matter what because of my values, but in general it seems like most ordinary people agree on 80% and disagree on 20%, with the 20% about the “how.” So my feeling is people will concoct some ploy so that nobody presses the very attractive shiny large red button once they’ve gotten all the enjoyment they can get out of the button.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Sep 21, 2021 Posted 1 month ago

It’s likely the debt ceiling will be raised on time in some way or another (with or without political concessions) because a default would hurt almost everyone. But remember that what made Lehman Brothers different was almost everyone thought it couldn’t fail because people made sure it wouldn’t. I hope Jerome Powell explicitly says he has a “just in case” game plan. Are some people stupid enough to make really bad decisions that hurt themselves and others or simply Chaotic Evil? Yes. I would maybe make some astute investing decisions and then bring out the popcorn assuming this is just those knuckleheads doing political theater. In the event that it does go south, I would prepare for a bug-in and civil unrest (I recommend peanut butter). One of the reasons a default is so unlikely is that people in charge are aware that certain events can pose a threat to social stability.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Sep 17, 2021 Posted 1 month ago

The Punchbowl News podcast (a podcast that covers Congress) said it’s estimated that the US will hit the debt ceiling around October 22 through October 26. I don’t want to get too into politics or ideology, but the situation looks worse than in 2011 or 2013 because there have been absolutely no bipartisan or “single party” negotiations so far. Any deal (whether it involves 60 or more Senators or 51) would involve smart political maneuvering to get the process to work and get the votes. The bottom line is that Congress has to deal with this as soon as possible (preferably right now) and it doesn’t really matter who votes for it so long as something passes. The main risks are either someone will decide a default is worth it for some other political benefit or people will make horrendously wrong calculations about the game of “chicken.” So how the debt ceiling plays out really is another “black swan” event. The fair solution to this is that Congress should have to “own” future spending beforehand. Congress would likely increase the debt ceiling after a “technical default” and avoid a self-inflicted Mad Max scenario. But even letting the “technical default” happen can do a lot of damage that can’t be reversed.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Sep 10, 2021 Posted 1 month ago

I’m not a lawyer, but here’s my sense of what’s going on. It’s possible the mandates will be struck down by the courts sooner or later like with the eviction moratorium case, but they still send a clear message that the government will back you up if you fire people for not getting vaccinated (also SCOTUS gets an “out” to allow private employer mandates in a way that might be less politically awkward). I’m pretty sure the mandate is legal in Head Start programs, American Indian Schools, federal contractors, and any business that accepts Medicare or Medicaid. Millions of people who are “on the fence” or promised family they’d wait to get vaccinated will probably get vaccinated rather than risk losing their jobs. Probably it will also be legal for a company to take money out of your paycheck if you choose to be unvaccinated but get tested weekly. The downside has “prepper noteworthy” risks like: (1) millions of people could get fired and create unintended economic consequences, or (2) fake vaccine cards become widespread and tons of people lie about their vaccination status (in, say, jobs where they have regular contact with vulnerable people).

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Sep 7, 2021 Posted 2 months ago

I think there’s a bit more to it. There was a breakdown in union negotiations with highway toll authorities over rates (or something like that) and disagreements over pay and working conditions. IIRC, South Australia put a number of very strict measures in place and the police are aggressively enforcing them. Ideally, I want legal mandates that protect business owners (like you’re backed up if you remove someone who isn’t wearing a mask from your store) combined with widespread voluntary action to slow cases. I don’t agree with extensively using the police to make people comply, especially considering potential for bias and that police enforcement isn’t exactly perfect. I recall about 30% of Americans support a strong “National Security law enforcement” approach (where civil liberties like privacy don’t really matter) to threats like terrorism, down from 50% in 2001-2002. I feel like the pandemic is similar to some degree and those types of approaches don’t reliably work long-term. You need the general public taking collective responsibility for safety, not cops forcing everyone into compliance.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Sep 7, 2021 Posted 2 months ago

Believing in unverified conspiracy theories actually means people are more likely to believe what they’re told because they want an illegitimate degree of certainty about how the world works. You could say it’s “illegitimate religious certainty” (like believing your religion gives you special knowledge about the real world) and “illegitimate religious experience” (people like you are special because of shared identity, AKA what Olúfémi O. Táíwò calls “deference epistemology”). I think part of this is a response to genuine feelings of alienation and disenfranchisement combined with nefarious manipulation through deliberate disinformation. There are more cynical interpretations of why people think that way, like they’re ignoring epistemic reality because they only want “brownie points” or they really want to preserve aspects of the status quo. But I think lots of people are genuinely hurting and looking for ways to cope. If a relatively small group of people is heavily influencing this “non-reality” through disinformation campaigns, you have something more like a cult. A cult especially if some leader or leaders have severely disordered personalities.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Sep 7, 2021 Posted 2 months ago

There’s some evidence that non-COVID coronaviruses cause minor symptoms because they aren’t a major threat to kids and repeated exposure means you have strong immunity to multiple variants once you’re older. It’s possible vaccines could accelerate that childhood process of developing immunity, but we just don’t know yet. Maybe it’s better if vaccinated people are exposed to variants, but the running theme is that we don’t really know. Doing everything we can to slow cases gives hospitals more time to prepare by increasing their staffing. Vaccine-hesitant people have a very negative response to the word “jab,” so they’d probably feel more comfortable taking an oral vaccine or a drug like Tamiflu that prevents you from getting a severe case. There’s a spectrum of vaccine hesitancy, like: Group A: People who think 5G towers cause COVID-19 and Bill Gates wants to use vaccines to reduce the population by killing people. Group B: People who are skeptical of public health experts and concerned about whether a cost-benefit analysis would show that getting the vaccine would personally benefit them. I feel like there’s a certain level of panic about vaccine-hesitant people that makes it harder to reach them. For instance, there were only about 500 cases of Ivermectin “overdoses” (= severe enough to require hospitalization?) in August compared to far more COVID hospitalizations, despite media framing that Ivermectin overdoses are a huge problem. Taking Ivermectin likely won’t help you against COVID, but the risk of getting COVID is far worse than your risk of an Ivermectin overdose.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Aug 20, 2021 Posted 2 months ago

The delta surge in Israel looks like: Vaccination rate around 60% + waning immunity after 6 months is not good enough because delta is so infectious. About half of hospitalized people are fully vaccinated, over age 60, had their last vaccine dose 6 months ago, and have underlying conditions that might prevent the vaccine from working as well. A booster after 6 months seems to give these people more neutralizing antibodies, but it’s good to keep an eye on how booster protection plays out in Israel. Almost all severe cases in people under age 60 are unvaccinated people whose conditions deteriorated rapidly soon after they got sick. In the over-60 group, severe COVID is 9 times more common among unvaccinated people than vaccinated people. Most disease seems to be spread by unvaccinated people. So yeah, get the vaccine if you haven’t already.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Aug 6, 2021 Posted 3 months ago

Vaccines are politicized because California repealed its law allowing parents to claim religious exemptions from getting their kids the MMR vaccine before enrolling them in public school. IIRC, anti-vaxxers “migrated” to Orange County because it was a nice place to live, there’s a balanced representation of Democrats and Republicans, and local policy is more libertarian-ish. One subset of anti-vaxxers is religious conservatives and another is “health-conscious” progressives. The fact that the issue isn’t really an ideological partisan issue makes concerns seem more reasonable than they really are. I’d say the concern over keeping large electronic databases with information about people is more reasonable because I don’t trust that the government won’t abuse its power. But hey, getting vaccinated meant I have one less problem to worry about, at least for now. What’s infuriating is I’ll talk to vaccine skeptics and realize that I’m more distrustful and paranoid on some issues than they are, except that distrust and paranoia is based on factual information. Not to get political or go after public sector workers, but the government has done a lot of questionable stuff in the past that’s now uncontroversial public knowledge.

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Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Oct 8, 2021 Posted 2 weeks ago

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Oct 5, 2021 Posted 2 weeks ago

The Senate passed a short-term extension of the debt ceiling tonight. Hopefully, the debate going forward will be less crazy. I’m going to take a hot bath and get some good sleep.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Oct 5, 2021 Posted 3 weeks ago

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Oct 1, 2021 Posted 3 weeks ago

Well then, a violent response to national service would probably make a bad situation even worse. More reason you’d want more people ready for a crisis.