I live in a strongly liberal/progressive area and most people haven’t been wearing masks indoors since last spring. I won’t hurt population immunity to respiratory diseases by staying home unless I need to go out and wearing an N95 respirator in indoor public areas or shops. Local small businesses don’t need me showing up in person because they’re doing reasonably well right now. I’m not 100% cutting my immune system off because I go out sometimes and masks don’t give you perfect immunity (I’m also boosted and got the flu shot, neither of which is perfect). I will reduce the number of times I’ll get sick and the chances that I expose a vulnerable person to a respiratory disease. It’s giving up to say the US can’t become more similar to a country like Singapore or South Korea in ways that will improve everyone’s quality of life. Culture changed before and it can change again. People can wear masks during flu season to protect vulnerable people. I refuse to belief that there’s something unique about the US that prevents people from taking collective action for the greater good (cue for sappy music).

SCOTUS declined to hear a case that could have impacted how federal agencies can interpret ambiguous federal law. Right now, courts will defer to scientific experts (at the CDC or EPA, for example) so long as their interpretation of federal law is “reasonable.” This is pretty important because of the mismatch between saying what an agency has authority to do and how scientific understanding changes over time, especially if we’re dealing with diseases or global warming.

There will be permanent regulatory changes to the PSLF that will make the application process easier, but certain aspects of the waiver will be permanently gone after October 31. In particular, there won’t be any emergency waiver for the requirement that you have to currently work for an eligible organization when you apply for forgiveness. It’s best to get everything in by Monday if you think you’re eligible for PSLF under current rules.

I got my COVID booster at a Southern California CVS pharmacy in a Target store on Tuesday. What I’ve (recently) learned about vaccines is: It’s probably fine to get the shot 2-3 months after another COVID booster or an infection. But waiting 4 months might optimize the “bang for your buck” immune response. Questionnaires that ask about receiving other vaccines in the past month are interested in knowing if you’ve had a vaccine in the past month that increases the risk of myocarditis, specifically the monkeypox vaccine. This isn’t a “too many vaccines” issue. Vaccines are usually injected into a muscle and then spread through the bloodstream, which has nothing to do with fluids like sweat that naturally leave your body—so you won’t “lose” the vaccine by sticking with your normal routine. If a fluid like sweat has antibodies, your body will just make more antibodies. Any advice that sounds related to this is, I think, probably (again) for people who really want to minimize any type of risk related to myocarditis. Probably getting the Pfizer booster is enough for most people who are worried about myocarditis (i.e., your doctor hasn’t specifically told you that you have a condition that heightens your risk).

The new shot should be available to every eligible person who wants it (12 and older for Pfizer, 18 and older for Moderna) within about two weeks. The FDA accepted efficacy data based on non-human animal studies (we have human studies for the original omicron booster but not the BA.5 booster), but the FDA typically only has animal studies when it approves updated flu shots. European regulators tend to be more conservative and worried about public opinion, so they’re approving the original omicron booster. It isn’t clear yet whether the BA.5 version will be significantly better in the “real world” than the original omicron or the older 2021 boosters, but none of the disagreement is a good reason not to get it.

The situation in Europe looks like it could get pretty bad. Macron talked about an “end of abundance,” which is pretty rare for a G7 politician to say. I also follow Javier Blas on Twitter, some highlights: There might be an electricity shortage in the EU/UK rather than just higher prices. The Biden administration seems worried about refined gasoline and diesel inventories. Energy firms in the UK are not renewing small business contracts because of price increases. I don’t have links with me, but I’ve heard European local governments talk about “washcloth baths” to save on water and heating. (EDIT: There has been a lot of discussion on forums like Reddit claiming there’s a civil war risk because of the Inflation Reduction Act, Mar-a-Lago, and forgiving student loan debt. It’s more likely there will be civil unrest, and at worst attacks on targets like government agencies or political groups)

The student loan default rate is highest among people with low balances, like between $2,000 and $10,000. Those are usually low-income people who either went to college for one or two semesters and then dropped out or took a vocational certificate program that lasts less than one year but couldn’t find a job (when, possibly, they didn’t know a local community college offers the same program for much cheaper). Those people would disproportionately benefit from loan forgiveness and there might be a stronger argument that the HEROES Act allows this because low-income people took a pretty big hit during the pandemic. The policy argument for doing this with law school debt or business school debt is a little more tricky. Law schools probably couldn’t charge outrageous tuition or “professional student surcharge” if there wasn’t a big payoff for many students. The TLDR of opinion is most economists oppose a general student loan forgiveness because the conventional wisdom is that forgiveness encourages students to borrow more in anticipation of more forgiveness, which encourages colleges to raise tuition. I think a pretty strong counterargument is that many students were heavily pressured to go to a “first choice school” that’s a lot more expensive, even though lifetime earnings don’t really depend on which school you went to, only that you graduated.

Jason Furman (the Obama Administration economic adviser) said that, given how much people normally pay in student loans and the forgiveness plan, inflation will only be around 0.2-0.3% higher than if payments resumed as before April 2020. So it likely won’t be a huge disaster despite how some people portray it. Though that can be around $200 higher costs per year for a typical household, which could increase polarization. From my perspective at least, it really doesn’t make that much sense to forgive law school or finance school loans because virtually everyone going to law school or finance school knows what you’re getting yourself into. (Note: I’m not a lawyer and this isn’t legal advice) There’s a non-political article arguing that the forgiveness plan isn’t legal. The extended deferment (beyond the CARES Act date) is probably legal under the Higher Education Act of 1965 as an “economic hardship deferment” and the interest waiver is probably legal under the HEROES Act of 2003 (a post-9/11 law on emergency powers). However, in the case of forgiving debt, it looks like federal regulations prohibit the government from negotiating with a student debtor (or maybe any debtor) unless conditions like the following apply: The borrower can’t repay the debt in a reasonable time frame. The government can’t collect the debt in a reasonable time frame through garnishing your wages. Collecting the debt is more expensive than the amount likely to be collected. The government/agency thinks it can’t win a lawsuit against the borrower. Pretty much none of this applies when someone is able to pay.

If you have extra cash and you were thinking of buying something that’s manufactured in China, like a phone or laptop or solar power bank charger, it might be a good idea to buy it now. Also, while everything is still running relatively smoothly (like you still have health/dental insurance), it’s a good idea to take care of stuff like teeth cleaning, cavity fillings, and making sure you’re up to date on vaccines.

I remember reading a few months ago that UK farmers expected a pretty bad year for crops, but how much this will impact the UK’s overall food security is uncertain because the UK imports a lot of its food (though more imports = potentially much higher prices, and you’re assuming the exporters won’t also have huge crop failures). It’s still a good idea to have food preps stored and not just assume everything will go smoothly. In the US at least, from reading the news (reliable fact-focused journalists like Karen Braun), I’m feeling marginally less worried about the short-term than I was a few months ago. My thinking is that the US won’t go from being a rich country to a poor country because of one crisis (one recession even if it’s like the 1981-1982 recession, or one period of high inflation or scarcity), but a lot can change in 20-50 years.

I think most doctors are willing to give you shots if you’re unsure and your insurance would fully cover the vaccine at the clinic. I’m not completely sure about my chickenpox vaccine and an advice nurse recommended I get a titer test (I was born before 1995 and the records are messy, possibly the doctor didn’t know I hadn’t had a first dose). The doctor might decide to just give me the shot, though. Getting more shots than necessary probably wouldn’t hurt you, I think.

For kidnapping, throwing an epic fit (scream, cry, hit the attacker, etc.) is probably a good idea if you’re older than a toddler and the attacker isn’t threatening you with a knife or gun. Know if you’re higher-risk: your appearance screams “gringo American with money,” you’re an attractive woman, or people would recognize you from TV or a newspaper. Even if you wouldn’t “pass as white” in the United States (whether you’re of European ancestry or not), lighter skin tones are more closely associated with having more economic resources in some countries because of socially endemic colorism or caste-ism. Go with a trusted friend or family member if you’re doing anything that could increase your risk, like getting drinks or semi-isolated activities like hiking or urban exploration.

I agree with the “climate hawk” criticisms of the bill, but I also think passing the bill now is better than delaying action or trying to aggressively shame people into supporting a stronger bill (which could backfire). I guess I’m a “climate hawk” if I’m forced to use a label. It’s better than “environmentalist” because that term can come with ideological and sociocultural baggage (I have donated small amounts of money to groups like the Sierra Club but not to groups like Greenpeace, I haven’t read Rachel Carson or John Muir yet, and I’ve never gone hiking or camping with a group of activists).

Not to get too into politics, but if the ~$400 billion budget and tax bill passes, it will be a huge deal because it will lead to trillions of additional private investment in renewable energy over the next 10 years. The main substantive criticisms of the bill come from “global warming hawks” who think addressing global warming and getting to net-zero emissions as quickly as possible should be the government’s #1 priority, even if that means ignoring or downplaying other economic and public health problems. Most of the other problems with the bill (like making it somewhat easier to approve some oil and gas projects) are probably easily fixable later on.

There should be enough updated boosters for every person who wants a booster to get one in the fall, based on current demand levels. The boosters will target BA.4, BA.5, and the original (wild type) coronavirus.

Here’s a more detailed rebuttal to the idea that we’re facing Greater Depression or Financial Crisis 2: Electric Boogaloo. The TLDR is that there don’t seem to be huge structural weaknesses in the economy or huge obstacles to servicing outstanding debt, even with higher interest rates. The Fed isn’t evil and isn’t so stupid that they’re going to cause a banking crisis (or at least hopefully not). A recession is still serious because not having a job is worse than having to pay even 10-15% higher prices.

I started the first book a week and a half ago as part of my doomscrolling detox (and vapid entertainment detox). I’m currently 130 pages into book 3.

FWIW, there are people who think the US is headed toward a severe financial crisis because of high national debt, low taxes, historically elevated inflation, and “zombie companies” created during the COVID environment of very low interest rates and very generous fiscal stimulus (to be clear, yes, you should still get your shots if you haven’t yet and social distance if it isn’t a severe hardship for you). Of course, this is just one economist’s ̶o̶p̶i̶n̶i̶o̶n̶ guess and I’m not a Kwisatz Haderach.

We can get more oil from OPEC and domestic production but that won’t get up and running for some time (like in 2023). There doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of spare capacity that can come online right now. The 1 million bbl/day release from the SPR can help somewhat while production gradually increases, but I tend to agree we should only use the SPR in dire emergencies rather than to ameliorate annoyingly high gas prices. The reasons for the price drop are: Demand destruction caused by inflation, especially in non-dollar currencies. Russia’s production has been smoother than expected even as we approach the December 5, 2022 deadline for the UK and EU to stop using Russian oil. Russia seems like it will keep trying to sell to willing buyers rather than retaliate against sanctions with production cuts, though I don’t have a crystal ball or Bene Gesserit prescience powers. More oil investors expect a recession. Raising interest rates creates a “strong dollar” environment, which lowers the cost of crude oil in dollars but makes it more expensive in every other currency. Domestic gasoline (petrol) consumption has been lower in 2022Q2 than all of 2021. It’s not all bad news because some of the decrease is linked to better vehicle fuel efficiency. The SPR and modest production increases are enough to influence prices in a tight market. I don’t think we’re at the End of the World or the Peak Oil “doomer” scenario just yet, but it might be a good idea to practically and psychologically prepare yourself for a possible future when $4-6 gas/petrol was the “good old days.”

Most people dial 911 when they’re having a severe mental health crisis even though you were supposed to call 1-800-273-TALK/8255. Counselors should also help people find local mental health and substance abuse resources.