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Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Aug 05, 2022 Posted 1 week ago

I think most doctors are willing to give you shots if you’re unsure and your insurance would fully cover the vaccine at the clinic. I’m not completely sure about my chickenpox vaccine and an advice nurse recommended I get a titer test (I was born before 1995 and the records are messy, possibly the doctor didn’t know I hadn’t had a first dose). The doctor might decide to just give me the shot, though. Getting more shots than necessary probably wouldn’t hurt you, I think.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Aug 05, 2022 Posted 1 week ago

For kidnapping, throwing an epic fit (scream, cry, hit the attacker, etc.) is probably a good idea if you’re older than a toddler and the attacker isn’t threatening you with a knife or gun. Know if you’re higher-risk: your appearance screams “gringo American with money,” you’re an attractive woman, or people would recognize you from TV or a newspaper. Even if you wouldn’t “pass as white” in the United States (whether you’re of European ancestry or not), lighter skin tones are more closely associated with having more economic resources in some countries because of socially endemic colorism or caste-ism. Go with a trusted friend or family member if you’re doing anything that could increase your risk, like getting drinks or semi-isolated activities like hiking or urban exploration.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Jul 29, 2022 Posted 2 weeks ago

I agree with the “climate hawk” criticisms of the bill, but I also think passing the bill now is better than delaying action or trying to aggressively shame people into supporting a stronger bill (which could backfire). I guess I’m a “climate hawk” if I’m forced to use a label. It’s better than “environmentalist” because that term can come with ideological and sociocultural baggage (I have donated small amounts of money to groups like the Sierra Club but not to groups like Greenpeace, I haven’t read Rachel Carson or John Muir yet, and I’ve never gone hiking or camping with a group of activists).

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Jul 29, 2022 Posted 2 weeks ago

Not to get too into politics, but if the ~$400 billion budget and tax bill passes, it will be a huge deal because it will lead to trillions of additional private investment in renewable energy over the next 10 years. The main substantive criticisms of the bill come from “global warming hawks” who think addressing global warming and getting to net-zero emissions as quickly as possible should be the government’s #1 priority, even if that means ignoring or downplaying other economic and public health problems. Most of the other problems with the bill (like making it somewhat easier to approve some oil and gas projects) are probably easily fixable later on.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Jul 29, 2022 Posted 2 weeks ago

There should be enough updated boosters for every person who wants a booster to get one in the fall, based on current demand levels. The boosters will target BA.4, BA.5, and the original (wild type) coronavirus.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Jul 26, 2022 Posted 3 weeks ago

Here’s a more detailed rebuttal to the idea that we’re facing Greater Depression or Financial Crisis 2: Electric Boogaloo. The TLDR is that there don’t seem to be huge structural weaknesses in the economy or huge obstacles to servicing outstanding debt, even with higher interest rates. The Fed isn’t evil and isn’t so stupid that they’re going to cause a banking crisis (or at least hopefully not). A recession is still serious because not having a job is worse than having to pay even 10-15% higher prices.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Jul 26, 2022 Posted 3 weeks ago

I started the first book a week and a half ago as part of my doomscrolling detox (and vapid entertainment detox). I’m currently 130 pages into book 3.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Jul 26, 2022 Posted 3 weeks ago

FWIW, there are people who think the US is headed toward a severe financial crisis because of high national debt, low taxes, historically elevated inflation, and “zombie companies” created during the COVID environment of very low interest rates and very generous fiscal stimulus (to be clear, yes, you should still get your shots if you haven’t yet and social distance if it isn’t a severe hardship for you). Of course, this is just one economist’s ̶o̶p̶i̶n̶i̶o̶n̶ guess and I’m not a Kwisatz Haderach.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Jul 19, 2022 Posted 4 weeks ago

We can get more oil from OPEC and domestic production but that won’t get up and running for some time (like in 2023). There doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of spare capacity that can come online right now. The 1 million bbl/day release from the SPR can help somewhat while production gradually increases, but I tend to agree we should only use the SPR in dire emergencies rather than to ameliorate annoyingly high gas prices. The reasons for the price drop are: Demand destruction caused by inflation, especially in non-dollar currencies. Russia’s production has been smoother than expected even as we approach the December 5, 2022 deadline for the UK and EU to stop using Russian oil. Russia seems like it will keep trying to sell to willing buyers rather than retaliate against sanctions with production cuts, though I don’t have a crystal ball or Bene Gesserit prescience powers. More oil investors expect a recession. Raising interest rates creates a “strong dollar” environment, which lowers the cost of crude oil in dollars but makes it more expensive in every other currency. Domestic gasoline (petrol) consumption has been lower in 2022Q2 than all of 2021. It’s not all bad news because some of the decrease is linked to better vehicle fuel efficiency. The SPR and modest production increases are enough to influence prices in a tight market. I don’t think we’re at the End of the World or the Peak Oil “doomer” scenario just yet, but it might be a good idea to practically and psychologically prepare yourself for a possible future when $4-6 gas/petrol was the “good old days.”

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Jul 15, 2022 Posted 4 weeks ago

Most people dial 911 when they’re having a severe mental health crisis even though you were supposed to call 1-800-273-TALK/8255. Counselors should also help people find local mental health and substance abuse resources.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Jul 15, 2022 Posted 1 month ago

I think it can take 12-18 months before higher interest rates start to work, unless (of course) Jerome Powell suddenly becomes much more aggressive after developing an unhealthy cigar habit.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Jul 05, 2022 Posted 1 month ago

Republicans and Democrats both supported stimulus in 2008 and 2020 because there was a decent chance of a global depression or severe recession. Herbert Hoover supported stimulus in the 1930s but likely didn’t go far enough. A “mild” or “moderate” recession (which could still be “deep,” but not as bad as the Great Depression or Lehman Brothers failing with no mitigation) would be totally different. In general, high inflation is preferable to high deflation because high deflation can crush any person or business with a lot of debt. If people, the government, and companies already have high debt, that’s a total disaster. Alabama defaulted on its bonds in the 1930s and (I think) that’s the only US state default in history.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Jul 01, 2022 Posted 1 month ago

Gun ownership is not a “protected class” in California employment discrimination law. It might be a red flag if a potential employer sees you have (or had) a gun in your house but were denied a concealed carry permit, among other questionable uses of the leaked data. It’s especially concerning if you live in a more-liberal part of California where guns are more of a culture wars issue and people might make assumptions about you. The leak is dragnet surveillance. It isn’t going to get you a list of members of the Ku Klux Klan, the Proud Boys, or extremist religious groups.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Jun 28, 2022 Posted 2 months ago

Using a condom is a good idea because of highly speculative initial data, but it shouldn’t color your initial impression of how monkeypox spreads because we don’t really know enough about that yet. It looks like the spread is still consistent with it being primarily airborne, which would also explain a superspreader event involving people having sex. It isn’t that people oppose doing something about COVID. It’s that they were initially told you just need to wash your hands and cough into your elbow. People have a cognitive bias in favor of advice from authority figures that does not change. If advice changes, people think of it as “flip-flopping” and lose trust in institutions. You have to emphasize uncertainty and caution from the beginning. Even if it isn’t realistic for the government to get as much buy-in from the population as it did in March and April 2020, there are still options it can use to respond to both monkeypox and COVID (without Congress necessarily authorizing spending): Actually improve CDC messaging, including to vaccine hesitant people rather than treating vaccine skeptics like political enemies. The CDC could say it will back up local public health authorities who choose to issue requirements that are stricter than CDC requirements. Develop plans to help both people vulnerable to infection and people who want to avoid infection or exposure. Most people are tired because politics is so polarized. A way to reach people might be to, for example, get people together who are “ideologically diverse” but agree we should do something to respond to disease threats and improve public health systems. Polarization is created by the focus on a winner-take-all perception of elections since the 1992 election and politicians turning everything into a wedge issue. It isn’t created by “fatigue” over pandemic restrictions or crises.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Jun 28, 2022 Posted 2 months ago

Jane’s Revenge is a militant pro-abortion rights group that has claimed responsibility for several attacks against churches and Crisis Pregnancy Centers (organizations that try to convince women not to get abortions and connect them with resources). It seems like nobody has been hurt or injured, but there’s no guarantee that someone wouldn’t accidentally burn a building down with people inside. On the one hand, it’s possible that Jane’s Revenge are agents provocateurs trying to make people who support abortion rights look bad. On the other hand, the claimed attacks seem consistent with attacks committed by militant far-left groups, especially with the focus on arson, vandalism, property destruction, and (usually) avoiding hurting people. The Department of Homeland Security said it will keep an eye on them, I would say sources like the National Review and Catholic News Agency are generally reliable, while other pro-life/anti-abortion sources are less reliable.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Jun 24, 2022 Posted 2 months ago

I would add some observations to what people are talking about right now (covering multiple prepping-related economic/social/political issues going on right now): Focus on what you can control. If you can’t do that right now, “rational insanity” is better than “irrational insanity.” Put another way, yes, you can maintain a positive outlook grounded in objective reality even if you fear the worst will happen you you. That’s what Ho Chi Minh and the Vietnamese did (hey, Ho Chi Minh was inspired by the American Revolution and I recommended a Dave Ramsey video and he’s someone else I strongly disagree with, plus “study your enemy and take what’s good” goes back a long way). I don’t personally agree with Emerican on his politics, but I don’t know of a better video on prepping for catastrophe with a rational positive outlook versus becoming a “doomer.” Stick to sources of information that are generally accurate and honest about uncertainty even if they’re biased or inaccurate on some issues (I don’t want to take a stance on social issues or social/religious conservatism here, but it isn’t exactly a surprise when someone says something he’s said over and over and over [and over] again before). Yes, we’re strangers in a strange land and can’t predict the future. The future was always uncertain, you just might have been realizing that it was always uncertain over the past few months or right now. Take bad news as a “slap” that wakes you up rather than a kick that puts you down. Again, there’s benefits.gov if you need extra help with basic needs right now and might qualify for unemployment insurance or other programs. There might also be prepping-related social enterprises in your area that can help you with food assistance, getting seeds, or starting a food garden. Prepare for civil unrest. If you go to church (regardless of your opinions or the church’s opinions), it might be a good idea for the church to take safety measures over the next few weeks, even if that means switching to livestream. Consider safety issues especially if you go to a Catholic church or a “Catholic-like” church (e.g., Episcopalian), since some people could associate the church with a particular viewpoint even if you don’t agree with that viewpoint (or every aspect of it). On a more explicit note (for worriers), I think the chance is close to 0 that SCOTUS will intentionally cause an economic disaster anytime within the next few years (like, say, abolishing the federal government or declaring paper money unconstitutional) unless stuff quickly gets really really bad. Justice Barrett and scholar John Copeland Nagle wrote an article in 2016 saying that no justice in her right mind would reconsider precedents involving topics such as the Social Security Administration, paper money, the state of West Virginia, or whether the Fourteenth Amendment was properly ratified.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Jun 21, 2022 Posted 2 months ago

The Ruger Mini-14 has the same features as an AR-15, including support for large magazines, but doesn’t look as much like a military-style gun designed to kill people. It wasn’t banned in the 1994-2004 federal ban, but someone who’s psychologically disturbed and wants to kill people (and has crappy 1990s Internet) might not know that it’s just as good as an AR-15. The ban probably also had an economic effect because gun manufacturers couldn’t easily repurpose AR-15’s sold to the police so they can sell them to civilians. Most shooting deaths occur in incidents involving 1-2 people, so we wouldn’t expect magazine capacity to matter that much. Most pistols are semiautomatic and are good at killing people quickly. Countries like Japan, Singapore, and Australia ban pretty much all guns and have very low annual shooting deaths. For what it’s worth, most informed gun control supporters wanted to ban sale of all semiautomatic rifles unless the rifles were used for hunting. That wasn’t politically feasible in 1994 because it would mean all hunting rifles would have to be federally registered and everyone who owns a hunting rifle would need to have an individual federal firearms license. Part of the point of the 1994 ban was that guns classified as “assault weapons” look scary and the average person can’t tell the difference between an “assault weapon” and a machine gun, so the ban (which actually reduced shooting deaths, by the way) had more public support.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Jun 21, 2022 Posted 2 months ago

There could be a “psychological” effect like the assault weapons ban (shootings went down during a ban on firearms that look like they’re made for killing people rather than hunting). It isn’t totally clear how effective a ban would be now or whether banning something defensive that people normally use for safety (and not a “tactical” purpose) would reduce shootings.

Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Jun 21, 2022 Posted 2 months ago

Suspending gas taxes is at least worth trying because it’s doing something to encourage companies to lower prices. It probably isn’t anywhere near fixing the affordability crisis, though.

Reply to: News roundup for Fri, Jun 17, 2022 Posted 2 months ago

What’s worrisome, though, is the emotional component behind the collapse in cryptocurrencies and whether that fear could spread to other asset classes. Cryptocurrency is currently regulated by the SEC rather than the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, though.

My main worries to end the week (Prices/CPI and other stuff)

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