The confidence intervals between the two estimates don’t even overlap! (34-94.9 last week, 15.4-31.5 this week.) Ari hitting homers for two years straight now. 🙂 EDIT: It’s also disappointing to see that some of the various public health gurus who pushed this 73% number are acting as though it’s the CDC’s fault. Look, Walensky shouldn’t have tweeted it out. But this was just an automated tool and these guys are supposed to be experts! Surely, even if they couldn’t follow Ari’s logic here, they should seen the 34-94.9% confidence interval and thought “hmm, maybe I shouldn’t make too many strong statements about this.” But set aside that, at least they shouldn’t be turning around and saying stuff like “wow CDC wrong again”… that’s just actively eroding public trust.