The confidence intervals between the two estimates don’t even overlap! (34-94.9 last week, 15.4-31.5 this week.) Ari hitting homers for two years straight now. 🙂 EDIT: It’s also disappointing to see that some of the various public health gurus who pushed this 73% number are acting as though it’s the CDC’s fault. Look, Walensky shouldn’t have tweeted it out. But this was just an automated tool and these guys are supposed to be experts! Surely, even if they couldn’t follow Ari’s logic here, they should seen the 34-94.9% confidence interval and thought “hmm, maybe I shouldn’t make too many strong statements about this.” But set aside that, at least they shouldn’t be turning around and saying stuff like “wow CDC wrong again”… that’s just actively eroding public trust.

Ari, I always appreciate your insights (and was excited to see we went to the same university!), but I have to admit I let myself be skeptical about this one because I saw that Walensky had tweeted out and I thought “surely they would’ve double checked this one before they pushed it out.” But no, you’ve been proven right! Per NYT, the CDC is saying that the estimate for that week was actually 23%, and that their estimate for the present is 59%. 

I suspect, but have never confirmed, that the reason why Leatherman avoids having the spring-loaded pliers in most of their tools (there are a few exceptions) is because they’re an added point of failure. I know in some of the multitools I’ve used, they’ve gotten gummed up and had to be removed. I agree that they make the pliers a lot easier to use, though.  Gerber is generally considered a worse pick because people don’t trust their quality control and choices of material. But it’s hard to tell what part of that is old news, what part is undeserved rumor, and what part is reality. Gerber just puts out so many different products at so many different price points and quality levels that it seems wrong to drop a broad judgment anyways. My own results have been mixed but I’ve found at least their keychain tool (the Dice) to be reliable enough it stays on my keychain at all times.

Since posting this, I bought the Free P4. Honestly, a great upgrade to the Wave, in my opinion. I’m happy to relegate my Wave to a side bag and use my Free P4 on a daily basis. Tool complement is pretty much as good for my purposes because I didn’t really take advantage of the replaceable driver bits anyways. The ease of use as compared to the Wave can’t be overstated–I find myself using the Free P4 way more often just because I can get to pretty much every tool with one hand. It’s just a lot more frictionless. It also lacked all the little finicky problems my Wave had when I first bought it years ago, like sticky pivots. The pricing still grates on me a bit, but I’m very happy with the tool.

Very glad this is back! Thanks for the round-up, Stephanie–they’ve been a welcome source of news for much of these last 12 months, especially as I drew down on my own obsessive news consumption over the latter half of last year.

I have a question about the fit test. Despite having a beard, I went ahead and bought a half-piece respirator (the 3M 6501QL), as I wanted some protection from sawdust and such (and I figured I didn’t mind shaving my beard off if necessary). When I wear it and perform the simple at-home fit test described above and elsewhere (cover the filter holes), I’m totally unable to breathe and the respirator buckles in slightly, which matches the success criteria. Does this mean I do have an airtight seal, despite my beard being in the way? I’m surprised as the facial hair in the relevant areas definitely seems longer than stubble, though I guess it is on the shorter (and lighter) side, and I tend to trim a bit closer along the mask lines so as to achieve a tighter seal with my usual daily-use masks.

This highly reviewed (and Wirecutter recommended) combo carbon monoxide/smoke detector is on sale today. I’ve been waiting for a sale on these for a while and it looks like a pretty solid deal, best in over a year.

I agree with this recommendation. I was very skeptical going in because I’ve heard people discuss the potential for ‘the second American civil war’ before and there are two traps they often seem to fall into: (1) they dismiss the existing social science work entirely and (2) they are too confident in their idea of what it would like. But I think the creator and host of It Could Happen Here lays out his ideas pretty well, is attentive to the existing social science research around civil wars (without being beholden to it!), and takes good care not to commit too strongly to one single possibility or vision for what the future might look like. As a result it ends up being a really educational podcast.

This was incredibly helpful, thank you! And pictures for reference too! I was thinking about doing something similar (buying both the double-sided and the taytools strop) because I’m interested in doing more than just basic upkeep on the single field knife, so it’s great to hear what your experiences were like with them. Will keep in mind the need to heat it up when applying compound.

Did you ever come to a decision on this, Carpium? Curious if I can learn anything from your experience!

Justin Rhodes and his wife aren’t explicitly preppers–or at least I don’t think they are–but their work on gardening and raising chickens is very helpful and generally aligns with a prepared way of thinking.  In general, though, I find YouTube to be a very inconsistent place when it comes to serious prepping related content. It’s worth being cautious about the material available. I find that most people can’t escape the economics of YouTube, so very quickly their content veers away from “useful” and into “entertainment.” Goes triple for prepping channels, which very regularly turn into gear nerd channels. (And I can’t blame them–I am definitely a gear nerd myself!–but it’s not the most productive content.)

Strong point, Carpium. Even aside from the knife, the Skeletool overall has a very “tactical” aesthetic. I think the long-term solution for me is going to have to be outside Leatherman… the Victorinox SAKs are much more obviously multitools as opposed to knives, and I think I can settle for the weaker pliers. Currently I’m comparing the Handyman, the Deluxe Tinker, and the the Evolution S557. All have similar (or slightly lower) weights than the Skeletool and the Free K4. The shapes don’t look like they’re going to be quite as nice in-pocket, but the addition of a keychain-clip (the TEC Accessories P7 comes highly recommended) should hopefully address that problem. We’ll see, though. I’m very new to the SAK side of the multitool world so I’m taking my time with the research.

You and me both. It was mid-February when I was thinking about signing up for a first aid class. Then on March 7th I went into my personal lockdown and thought “alright, going to have to ride this wave out, so it’s going to be a few months” and now here we are.

Oh, sorry, I should’ve mentioned. It’s the Olight S1R Baton II. It’s a great little tool, but note one major drawback: it uses a proprietary battery. It charges via a magnetic USB charger, which makes it incredibly convenient for my daily use, but from a prepping perspective it’s frustrating that it doesn’t use a more standardized battery. Oh… and it’s only available in cool white.

I’ve been hearing a lot of good about Leatherman’s Free P2 and Free P4. The key advantage over the Wave to me is that all the tools are on the outside, which has really been a problem for me with the Wave.  The P2 is also lighter than the Wave, but it has a combo blade and no saw, which is a dealbreaker for me. The P4 is .1 oz heavier than the Wave and brings back the separate serrated blade and the saw. The pricetags are (so far) preventing me from taking the leap, but I’m really liking the idea of not having to open up the tool every time I want to use one of the smaller tools…

I guess I don’t have advice that addresses the problem head on (but will be keeping an eye on this to see if anyone else does!), but just a reminder to “not let the perfect be the enemy of the good”–if assembling a first aid kit is a mental block, maybe just pick up a pre-prepared first aid kit for the time being. And if a proper course and practice is an issue, maybe start doing the simple text-based material in the Red Cross First Aid app.

The Ti3 is a lovely little device, like many of ThruNIte’s devices. While I EDC a larger flashlight with a longer battery life + a magnet + a UI more to my liking, I also keep the Ti3 on my keychain because it’s so lightweight and I can hand it off to others easily.

Ooh, this is a hard choice for me. I’ve been wanting to switch to an EDC multitool as opposed to the non-ideal setup I’ve been using for a couple years now: the small-sized Leatherman Squirt PS4 or Gerber Dice with occasionally a pocket knife on me as well. But the thing that’s been giving me pause is that I really like and use both the pliers and the scissors on any multitool! I’m trying to decide which one I don’t mind using the smaller version of so that I can decide between the Skeletool CX and the Free K4 (I’ll still have the Squirt PS4 or Dice on my keychain). One downside to the K4 in my use case: I try to avoid carrying intimidating things like knives on my person (I’m a dark-skinned guy often in poorer neighborhoods where, frankly, officers can be a bit eager about things like this) so carrying the item that is more obviously a multitool (the Skeletool) may be an advantage.