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Reply to: (Official Discussion) Gold, silver, and other precious metals for sane preppers Posted May 20, 2021

This article claims that the basis behind precious metal valuation in the modern age is industrial usage, and that this is why they would hold value in a SHTF scenario. This is basically false. The modern reason for precious metal valuations is the same as the ancient reason: 1. they’re scarce, and 2. they’re widely considered valuable. (Yes, this is circular. It’s just reflexivity; the value comes from the demand, and the demand comes from the value.) Notably, in the case of gold, held stocks are several hundred times annual production, and industrial use is only a tiny proportion of annual production. If people stopped using gold as a savings instrument and it was valued based only on industrial demand, then the price would crater; it’d be $10/oz or less for centuries. Silver has a less extreme ratio and greater industrial use, but is qualitatively similar. Meanwhile, the platinum group are priced as (expensive) industrial metals, not savings instruments; their held stocks are small compared to annual production, and most of their demand is industrial. This means that gold and silver (“precious metals”) are categorically different from platinum-group. If you invest in gold or silver, you’re investing in a Schelling point whose value is primarily monetary. If you invest in the platinum group, you’re investing in an industrial commodity whose value is primarily industrial. These are two very different investment theses. Notably, if you invest in precious metals then the important factors governing your investment performance are macroeconomic and monetary (e.g. is the environment inflationary or deflationary, are investors spooked or optimistic); if you invest in industrial metals then the important factors are industry-specific (what’s the demand for new catalytic converters like, how efficient are platinum mines). Personally, I would generally recommend against investing in industrial metals. They aren’t primarily stores of value, so they aren’t likely to exhibit useful economic properties during a SHTF event; their value depends on the relevant industries remaining in good health. But if you want to invest in the continued good health of the automotive industry or whatever, you can just buy stocks, and get more direct exposure and better performance during normal times.

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Reply to: (Official Discussion) Gold, silver, and other precious metals for sane preppers Posted May 20, 2021

This article claims that the basis behind precious metal valuation in the modern age is industrial usage, and that this is why they would hold value in a SHTF scenario. This is basically false. The modern reason for precious metal valuations is the same as the ancient reason: 1. they’re scarce, and 2. they’re widely considered valuable. (Yes, this is circular. It’s just reflexivity; the value comes from the demand, and the demand comes from the value.) Notably, in the case of gold, held stocks are several hundred times annual production, and industrial use is only a tiny proportion of annual production. If people stopped using gold as a savings instrument and it was valued based only on industrial demand, then the price would crater; it’d be $10/oz or less for centuries. Silver has a less extreme ratio and greater industrial use, but is qualitatively similar. Meanwhile, the platinum group are priced as (expensive) industrial metals, not savings instruments; their held stocks are small compared to annual production, and most of their demand is industrial. This means that gold and silver (“precious metals”) are categorically different from platinum-group. If you invest in gold or silver, you’re investing in a Schelling point whose value is primarily monetary. If you invest in the platinum group, you’re investing in an industrial commodity whose value is primarily industrial. These are two very different investment theses. Notably, if you invest in precious metals then the important factors governing your investment performance are macroeconomic and monetary (e.g. is the environment inflationary or deflationary, are investors spooked or optimistic); if you invest in industrial metals then the important factors are industry-specific (what’s the demand for new catalytic converters like, how efficient are platinum mines). Personally, I would generally recommend against investing in industrial metals. They aren’t primarily stores of value, so they aren’t likely to exhibit useful economic properties during a SHTF event; their value depends on the relevant industries remaining in good health. But if you want to invest in the continued good health of the automotive industry or whatever, you can just buy stocks, and get more direct exposure and better performance during normal times.