That’s good food for thought. The one thing I’d prioritize during a lull in the cases would be anything that requires workers or delivery people to come in the house. I prefer not have them in the house at all if possible, but sometimes it is not possible. Our water heater started leaking a few weeks back, and it had reached the end of its life expectancy. On any ordinary day I would have considered doing the replacement myself, but as I mentioned in a comment on another post, I was hospitalized back in June, and, well, I did not think it would have been wise to tackle the water heater replacement in the state I was in. So we had a worker come in. I setup a system to minimise the chances of the virus spreading out into the house, and I quarantined the basement for a while, etc. I’d always prep like this but I’d rather have the worker be in my house when the local infection rate is low, than when it is high. (Two weeks later, our water well pressure switch went crazy. I did this repair myself because I felt there wasn’t much I could mess up, and it did not require new skills.) We have some furniture to be delivered that has been held at the warehouse for months now (at our request). We’ll be taking delivery soon, while the infection rate is low. As usual, different folks are differently situated. For some, doctor visits that have been put off may take priority. I cannot delay doctor visits anymore so I just go when I need it. The infection rate would have to be cataclysmic for me to delay going to the doctor at this point.

Thanks for the news! The big deal with the saliva test is not so much that it is less invasive. That’s welcome, for sure. The big deal though is that it is less succeptible to materials shortage than the old tests. Less materials are needed to perform a test. And the shortage of nasal swabs does not impact this test. Maybe when the saliva test is being used at scale, we’re going to see a shortage of oral swabs? I cannot tell, and none of the articles I’ve read addressed the possibility. It is also a faster test. Overall, it should help us scale up testing and get faster test results. That it is less invasive is also nice.

I’ve been hospitalized for five days in June and since then made multiple trips to the ER. (My condition is not covid-related.) Here are my thoughts on what one should bring to the hospital. One thing I did not see addressed, but is very important: hospitals are generally not equipped to protect big valuables, or lots of valuables. So I would bring only what I absolutely need, and nothing more. I would not bring any electronics other than my phone. I’ve read books on my phone. Not great but doable. Audiobooks are always a possibility.  At the local hospital here what they provide for protecting valuables is a little box protected with an electronic lock that a nurse can open. A laptop definitely does not fit in this box. A tablet might fit, if it is not a large one, and if there aren’t too many other things to put in there. Keeping in this vein, I’d pare down what I grab going out the door to the bare essentials. Don’t bring all the keys you use in your house. Bring only what you’ll need when you get out of there. Don’t bring your entire wallet. Just bring your id, your insurance card, and the means to pay. Definitely bring a charger for anything you need to charge. During my 5 day hospitalization, I did not have a go bag, and so no charger. The hospital eventually got a charger for me but it took a while. Unfortunately, I get the impression that some patients just go home with the hospital’s charger. Definitely bring your own toiletries. My hospital provided me with some, but, well, they suck. Also, they might not provide everything you need. I have a substantial beard, which needs substantial grooming. Hospitals don’t provide anything for beards. This is just an example. If you need anything more than the bare essentials, the hospital probably won’t be able to provide it. Definitely bring your doctors’ contact information. You should bring a summary of your medical history with you. It should include: the medications you are currently taking (incluing dosage, and frequency), all allergies, including drug allergies, what conditions you currently have, hospitalization history, and surgery history. If you prepare it ahead of time, it gives you the opportunity to remember stuff which you may not remember on the spur of the moment. I like to travel light so I would *not* pack a blanket or several changes of clothing. I’d pack changes of underwear, definitely, but nothing more as far as clothing goes. I’d also skip the snacks. I did not go hungry during my stay at the hospital. Between meals, snacks were available, and the nurses were not stingy with them. I don’t remember what choices were available but they had chocolate pudding, which I like, so no problem there. Also, bringing in outside foods for yourself as a patient can be problematic. If you have a condition that requires a specific diet, the hospital wants to hold you to that diet. If you are fed by them, they can control your diet pretty precisely. (I have multiple conditions which come with dietary restrictions, so I’ll say it again: I did not feel deprived in the hospital and got as many snacks as I wanted. Presumably the pudding I got was fine for my diet.) Moreover some treatments can induce temporary conditions that require being more careful with food. Additionally, interactions between medications and foods is a thing. The biggest culprit is grapefruit juice but there are other interactions to watch for. Hospitals vary quite a bit as to how they handle food meant for a patient, and even different wards in the same hospital will have different rules. In some cases, they don’t allow outside food. In some cases, they just want to know about what type of food has been brought in. If I did bring food in, the one thing I would *not* do is try to sneak it past my health care team. You don’t want to be put in the ICU beause of a bad interaction between something you secretly ate and a drug. If you know someone who has been hospitalized at your local hospital, you might want to ask them how it was, to get a better picture of what to expect there. YMMV. If the blanket is a huge psychological boon to you, then pack it. ETA: If you can tolerate ear plugs, then I would definitely pack some, just in case. There’s only one night that I did miss having ear plugs. By the way, ear plugs come in multiple sizes. I suffered with badly sized plugs for a long time before realizing they were not one-size-fits-all.

Thank you for the overview. > The testing situation, while far from perfect, is not an acute crisis. It may soon become a crisis: theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/06/us-coronavirus-testing-could-fail-again/613675/ In other news, Goldman Sachs estimates a national mask mandate could save 5% of the GDP: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/goldman-sachs-national-mask-mandate-save-gdp-hit-economic-impact-2020-6-1029355543 It is infuriating that some politicians have foisted a false dichotomy upon us: save the economy or save lives. The two are not mutually exclusive.

This blog post goes over a whole series of factors that affect mortality: https://theprepared.com/blog/covid-death-rate-not-rising-yet/

To take a scaled down example, I’ve known quite a few folks who would put up a garden without thinking about the ongoing care it needs and the labor needed at harvest time. If the gardener is busy with other things, the weeds and pests don’t take a break. We’ve just finished a berry harvest here. Processing the berries fast enough to prevent waste took a lot of time. And we’re not trying to be self-sufficient or make a business out of it. (ETA: It looks like I’m replying to myself. I posted this comment twice and the second time I made sure to click the “Reply” button under John’s message. Still no dice.)

To take a scaled down example, I’ve known quite a few folks who would put up a garden without thinking about the ongoing care it needs and the labor needed at harvest time. If the gardener is busy with other things, the weeds and pests don’t take a break. We’ve just finished a berry harvest here. Processing the berries fast enough to prevent waste took a lot of time. And we’re not trying to be self-sufficient or make a business out of it.

I agree with just about everything in this article. Random reactions… One crucial thing people moving to the country and planning on cultivating or raising anything need to learn quick: nature won’t wait for you. For the ticks I buy pretreated clothing. I’ve not run into meth heads or drunk folks or had any scary encounter really. The most “unusual” encounter was one time I was taking recycling to the street (the county offers that service county-wide), a pick-up truck passed by. I did a “hello” wave like I do for all vehicles that pass me by. The truck stopped and one of the passengers got out to ask me about the hunting season. I was unable to help him.

> Price-gouging a life-saving treatment is not going to go over well right now, and Gilead is certainly aware of that. Maybe Gilead learned something from the shenanigans it engaged it when it tried to get “orphan” status for remdesivir. It eventually relented after public pressure. Techdirt covered the whole saga: https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200323/17334844155/why-is-fda-giving-potential-covid-19-treatment-orphan-status.shtml https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200324/18071944167/fda-wont-say-when-gilead-applied-orphan-status-covid-19-treatment-calling-it-secret.shtml https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200325/10540844171/public-pressure-works-gilead-asks-fda-to-rescind-orphan-drugs-designation-possible-covid-19-treatment.shtml Meanwhile, in Sweden, Anders Tegnell (the guy responsible for Sweden’s strategy) is responding as he usually does, by intimating that whoever is not happy with his handling of the crisis is a moron, after the WHO puts Sweden on a list of “countries at risk” (article in Swedish, use Google Translate if you need it translated to okay English): https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/who-pekar-ut-sverige-som-sarskilt-riskland-hor-tegnells-svar There’s much valid criticism to be cast at the WHO regarding its handling of the crisis, but I have to agree here with their assessment of Sweden. Tegnell would have liked the WHO to call him first. He blames the rising numbers on testing. Hmm… the other Scandinavian countries are also testing more but have kept the number of cases down. It is really night and day comparing for instance Norway with Sweden. When the other Scandinavian countries ban travel from Sweden, when the other countries in the EU do the same, when the foreign press questions the wisdom of Sweden’s strategy, etc., then for Tegnell they are all idiots unable to comprehend the magnificence of Tegnell’s vision.

I was going to point out the same thing. If the hospitals are receiving more critical cases, you don’t have to wait until a raise in deaths to declare bunk the notion that the increased number of infection cases is some sort of mirage. (Oh, but just wait for the deniers to declare that the ICU cases are really paid actors.) Now for a general comment addressed to nobody in particular: I do wish we’d stop focusing on “COVID-19 deaths” as the one indicator of how much the virus is screwing us. Why? Because, as has been pointed out on this very site: 1. COVID-19 can leave you with permanent disabilities even if it does not kill you. 2. The COVID-19 fatalities do not include those fatalities that happen due to other illnesses than COVID-19 but cannot be treated because the hospitals are at capacity. Eg. Bob has a heart attack but because the nearest hospital is full due to COVID-19, his ambulance is redirected to a more distant hospital, and he gets there too late. On any normal day, he would have had an excellent chance to get speedy care needed to survive it. 3. Even if you 100% recover from a trip to the ICU caused by COVID-19, going through the experience is awful. As doctors learn how to deal with COVID-19 cases, they’ll get better at reducing the fatality rate. There are already some treatments known now that they did not know at the beginning of the crisis that help reduce the rate. I suspect they’ll find more as time goes by. It is not clear to me how treatments will help with point 1 and 3 above. In fact, reducing the death rate may increase the rate of people left with disabilities. For treatment to have an impact on point 2, it would have to do more then prevent death but cause people to stay in the hospital for a shorter time, to the point that the ICU is no longer overwhelmed.

Yes, that’s important and it can very easily mess up attempts at determining how much capacity a hospital is using vs what’s left unused. I’ve been following my state and county ratings on this site: https://covidactnow.org/?s=56971 My county is in the red. The reason is that Covid Act Now pegs ICU bed usage at 100%. I’ve had reasons to doubt this so I checked the sources they use to come to the “100% figure”. The sources have data on my county that dates from prior to the COVID-19 crisis. When the COVID-19 crisis began there was a major conversion of facilities to boost ICU capacity. Of course, none of these changes can show in numbers that date from prior to the crisis. Unfortunately, I’ve not found a source that has reliable total number of ICU beds currently in place, but I’ve found reliable sources indicating that the numbers that Covid Act Now uses cannot be true. By the way, this is a good example of how we should all be skeptical of sites that pretend to quickly put a bunch of data together to make inferences. There’s been an explosion of these since the start of the crisis. In the vast majority of cases the inferences they were making were relying on deeply flawed assumptions. Most of the conclusions they come to are garbage, put people sure do like simplistic answers to complex situations, or answers that reinforce their prejudice against the other, whoever “the other” may be.

Sweden is acting stupidly, as usual. There’s been quite a bit of grousing in Sweden over the fact that some countries of the EU are reopening their borders but are keeping Sweden on the list of countries whose residents are not allowed entry. Tough shit, I say. I cannot blame countries that look at what Sweden is doing, see a lack of control and don’t want to import new cases. The US may soon get a taste of that. Apparently, the EU is not impressed with how the crisis has been handled in the US and is thinking not reopening to travel from the US:  

Thanks for the link. That’s encouraging. Let’s hope it proves effective as it is used to treat more people.

Thanks for the article. Some years back I went through the mental exercise of determining whether it would be legal, or safe and came up with the same answer you did. I did the mental exercise out of curiosity after seeing some preppers on TV or some forum describing their booby trap setup. I immediately thought “is this legal?” and went down the same road you did. The most important issue for me is the risk of hurting innocent people. I’d never forgive myself if an accident happened.

Denmark and Norway have agreed to allow travel from one to the other staring June 15th. Sweden is miffed that it is excluded from this agreement. Travel to or from Sweden is still banned by quite a few countries in Europe. That’s something the Swedish government would like to fix, but the countries banning travel are not happy about the COVID-19 stats in Sweden.

Mary beat me to it, but yes, this is what responsible scientific reporting looks like. I’m fine with reports based on preprints, provided that they clearly indicate that the scientific article *is* a preprint. However, just as important to me is to follow up, ESPECIALLY if the original inferences derived in the preprint or rom the preprint turn out not to hold up.

Reductions in quantity like this happen all the time for all kinds of products. It is a common tactic to raise the price per unit without raising the sticker price. Consumerist, before it went dead, used to track cases of what it called “the grocery shrink ray”: https://consumerist.com/tag/grocery-shrink-ray-2/index.html If manufacturers raised the sticker price, people would be more likely to notice that they are paying more and maybe reconsider their choices in favor of a competitor. Folks are much less likely to notice a change in quantity.

Yeah, when I saw those headlines I checked the CDC’s site and found they did not substantially change their advice. I wonder though if at some point they got evidence that some people thought that the risk from surfaces was the same as the risk from close contact with someone else. I can just imagine some confused individual thinking that restaurant delivery carries the exact same risk as eating in.

Soap on your hand does the same thing as soap on a counter, on a can of food, etc.

If your concern is SARS-CoV-2, then just use soap.