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Reply to: Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong Posted April 30, 2020

I looked at the data and I found Dr. Erickson made very good points on fatality rates which is small, less than 1%. I will show here the data from California and New York states. Since I cannot access his briefing anymore, I use current data per the Worldometer.com generated by the Johns Hopkins for 4/29/2020. 1) California: 1,939 deaths, 48,565 positive, 603,139 tested. If I use these, the fatality rate is 4%. However, if the whole state population is tested, the fatality rate will be much smaller. I apply the results from a study conducted on the whole population of Santa Clara county (WSJ 4/17/20 by Andrew Bogan) and extrapolate to the whole CA population, the number of positive cases would be 50 to 85 times more than 603k above. Therefore the fatality rate would be 0.05% to 0.08%. 2)New York: 23,474 deaths, 306,158 positives, 872,481 tested. These data reveals fatality rate of 7.7%. However Per Notes by Gov Cuomo on 4/23/20 (see Worldometer.com, 4/23/20 Notes), the tests conducted on random 3000 people found 13.9 % positive cases. Extrapolate that 13.9% to the whole NY state population, the positive cases would be about 2.7 millions, then the fatality rate would reduce to 0.8%. These fatality rates for CA, 0.05% to 0.08%, and NY, 0.8% are comparable to that of the annual flu. So i think Dr Erickson has good points and I agree with him. On the other hand, I also looked at the case of Sweden and Norway and found that the data do not support Dr Erickson’s narrative. As of 4/29/20, the deaths per one million people are 244 and 38 respectively. So his conclusion that Lock-Out in Norway has minimal impact is not convincing to me.  

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Reply to: Dr. Erickson’s viral “COVID-19 Briefing” video is dangerously wrong Posted April 30, 2020

I looked at the data and I found Dr. Erickson made very good points on fatality rates which is small, less than 1%. I will show here the data from California and New York states. Since I cannot access his briefing anymore, I use current data per the Worldometer.com generated by the Johns Hopkins for 4/29/2020. 1) California: 1,939 deaths, 48,565 positive, 603,139 tested. If I use these, the fatality rate is 4%. However, if the whole state population is tested, the fatality rate will be much smaller. I apply the results from a study conducted on the whole population of Santa Clara county (WSJ 4/17/20 by Andrew Bogan) and extrapolate to the whole CA population, the number of positive cases would be 50 to 85 times more than 603k above. Therefore the fatality rate would be 0.05% to 0.08%. 2)New York: 23,474 deaths, 306,158 positives, 872,481 tested. These data reveals fatality rate of 7.7%. However Per Notes by Gov Cuomo on 4/23/20 (see Worldometer.com, 4/23/20 Notes), the tests conducted on random 3000 people found 13.9 % positive cases. Extrapolate that 13.9% to the whole NY state population, the positive cases would be about 2.7 millions, then the fatality rate would reduce to 0.8%. These fatality rates for CA, 0.05% to 0.08%, and NY, 0.8% are comparable to that of the annual flu. So i think Dr Erickson has good points and I agree with him. On the other hand, I also looked at the case of Sweden and Norway and found that the data do not support Dr Erickson’s narrative. As of 4/29/20, the deaths per one million people are 244 and 38 respectively. So his conclusion that Lock-Out in Norway has minimal impact is not convincing to me.